USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF pull backed to 1.0712 last week but rebounded strongly since there. The break of 1.0889 minor resistance argues that such pull back is completed already. Hence, initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.1021 resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rise from 1.0590 has resumed and should then target 1.1158/1740 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.0794 minor support will in turn argue that consolidation from 1.1021 is still in progress. But after all, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0630 to complete the pull back and bring strong rally.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1963 is treated the third leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2296, which corrects the whole rally from 0.9634. With daily MACD staying well above signal line, such decline is tentatively treated as completed and hence, stronger rise is in favor to 1.1158/1.1740 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd favor that such consolidation is developing into triangle pattern and hence, upside should be limited by 1.1158/1740 initially and bring one more fall before completing the consolidation. However, break of 1.1963 will serve as the first signal that whole rally from 0.9634 is resuming. On the other hand, note that a break of 1.0590 low will indicate that fall from 1.1963 is still in progress for 1.0366, or even further to 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033 before completing the consolidation from 1.2296.

In the longer term picture, a long term bottom is no doubt in place at 0.9634 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. USD/CHF failed to take out 55 months EMA and reversed again and thus giving no confirmation of long term reversal yet. We're neutral in the long term outlook for the moment and would wait for further evidence from the markets before making a stance.

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