USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.89; (P) 104.36; (R1) 104.63; More.

USD/JPY continues to stay in tight range below 104.85 today and intraday outlook is turned neutral after 4 hours MACD was dragged below signal line by the sideway trading. On the upside, above 104.85 will indicate that rise from 95.77 has resumed for 104.96/108.59 resistance zone. Meanwhile, below 103.75 will confirms that an intraday top is in place and will turn focus back to channel support (now at 101.87) first.

In the bigger picture, break of 103.59 cluster resistance, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 103.31) argues that a medium term bottom is in place after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Focus is now on 108.59 resistance and break of which will break a series of lower highs, lower lows pattern that started at 124.13 and will confirm that this down trend has completed already. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first.

However, failure below 108.59, followed by break of 100.02 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern intact and suggest that down trend from 124.13 is still in force.

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