USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.14; (P) 104.62; (R1) 105.24; More.

USD/JPY's retreat from 105.70 was contained at 104.02 and rebounds after drawing support from 4 hours 55 EMA. Break of 105.12 minor resistance flips intraday bias back to the upside for retest of 105.70 high. Break will indicate whole rebound from 95.77 has resumed for 38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 95.77 at 106.60. But still, as mentioned before, resistance should continued to build up significantly as USD/JPY approaches 108.59 medium term resistance.

On the downside, below 104.02 will indicate that fall from 105.70 is still in progress. But with 103.19 support still holding, the rise from 95.77 is still in favor to extend. However, break of 103.19 support, with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI as background, will argue that the whole rise from 95.77 is over. Focus will then be shifted back to 100.02 support first.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 days EMA (now at 103.52) indicates that a medium term bottom is in place after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Focus is now on 108.59 resistance and break of which will break a series of lower highs, lower lows pattern that started at 124.13 and will confirm that this down trend has completed already. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first. However, failure below 108.59, followed by break of 100.02 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern intact and suggest that down trend from 124.13 is still in force.

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