USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.01; (P) 107.49; (R1) 107.81; More.

As discussed before, an intraday top is already in place at 107.98. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 107.44 minor resistance holds. Though, downside is still expected to be contained by 106.04 support and bring rally resumption. Above 107.44 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 107.98 first and then 108.58/59 resistance. However, below 106.04 will argue that correction from 108.58 is still in progress and will extend further before completion.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Corrective nature of the fall from 108.58 to 103.76 argues that medium term rebound from 95.77 is still in progress. Firm break of 108.59 key medium term resistance will confirm such rally has resumed for 61.8% projection of 95.77 to 108.58 from 103.76 at 111.68 first. On the downside, while another fall could still be seen if consolidation from 108.58 extends further, rally from 95.77 should still be in force and expected to extend high as long as 102.73 support holds.

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