USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 99.13; (P) 100.68; (R1) 101.50; More.

As discussed before, USD/JPY's rebound from 97.91 has completed at 103.06. Intraday bias now remains on the downside as long as 101.73 minor resistance holds and further decline is expected to retest 97.91 low. Break will confirm recent decline has resumed for retesting 95.77 low. On the upside, above 101.73 will argue that consolidation from 97.91 is still in progress for and another test of 103.06 could be seen. Nevertheless, focus remains on 103.49/54 resistance. As long as this resistance zone holds, the fall from 110.66 should still be in progress. However, sustained break of 103.54 will argue that fall from 110.66 has completed and focus will turn to 106.14 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 95.77 has completed at 110.66 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave structure of such rise argues that it's just correction, or part of the consolidation to the down trend from 124.13. Hence, deeper fall is now expected to retest 95.77 low. Break will confirm that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 93.13 first. On the upside, above 106.14 resistance will indicate that fall from 110.66 has completed. This will suggest that medium term consolidation from 95.77 is still in progress. In such case, another test of 110.66 could be seen before resuming the down trend from 124.13.

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