USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.19; (P) 96.17; (R1) 96.68; More.

USD/JPY's break of the intraday trend line support with 4 hours MACD dragged down signal line argues that fall from 100.54 might be resuming. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside and near term focus is turned to 94.47 minor support. Break will confirm this scenario and bring deeper fall to retest 90.92 low first. On the other hand, above 97.13 minor resistance will revive the case that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress for 100.54 or above before completion.

In the bigger picture, as long as 103.06 cluster resistance holds, medium term outlook remains bearish. Prior break of 95.77 low confirms that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3 next. Also, note that the current development clears out the long term picture too. Price actions that started from 79.75 (95 low) has completed in form of a triangle that ended with five waves to 124.13. In other words fall from 124.13 is just part of an even larger scale down trend which could extend further to retest 79.75 low.

On the upside, sustained break of 103.06 cluster resistance will firstly argue that fall from 110.66 has completed. Secondly, it will also argue that a medium term low is in place at 90.92 and outlook will be turned neutral with focus back to 110.66 high.

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