USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.22; (P) 95.46; (R1) 95.70; More.

USD/JPY continues to stay in the middle of 93.55 and 97.43 today, without making any progress. Though, with USD/JPY staying below 4 hours 55 EMA, intraday bias is still mildly on the downside for 93.55 support first. Break there will indicate fall from 100.54 has resumed for retesting 90.92 low. However, note that the lack of impulsive structure of the fall from 100.54 so far is still arguing that it might be part of the consolidation that started at 90.92. Above 97.43 will indicate that fall from 100.54 has already completed. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rebound from 90.92 is still in progress and stronger rally should be seen to 100.54 or above before completion.

In the bigger picture, as long as 103.06 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 110.66 to 90.92 at 103.12) holds, medium term outlook remains bearish. Prior break of 95.77 low confirms that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3 next. Also, note that the current development clears out the long term picture too. Price actions that started from 79.75 (95 low) has completed in form of a triangle that ended with five waves to 124.13. In other words fall from 124.13 is just part of an even larger scale down trend which could extend further to retest 79.75 low.

On the upside, sustained break of 103.06 cluster resistance will firstly argue that fall from 110.66 has completed. Secondly, it will also argue that a medium term low is in place at 90.92 and outlook will be turned neutral with focus back to 110.66 high.

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