USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.72; (P) 95.92; (R1) 96.13; More.

USD/JPY's fall from 96.96 extends further o as low as 95.10 so far today. Intraday bias is now on the downside as long as 96.11 minor resistance holds and further fall is in favor to be seen to 94.87 and below. However, note that we'd still holding on to the view that downside should be contained by 93.84/94.44 support zone to complete whole consolidation from 99.67. Hence, strong rebound is expected after next fall. ON the upside, above 96.11 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Break of 96.96 resistance will indicate that fall from 98.87, which is treated as the fifth leg in triangle consolidation has completed already and will target 98.87 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 99.67 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend from 87.12 only, in form of triangle pattern. Fall from 98.87 is viewed as the final leg of such consolidation and should be contained above 93.84 support to conclude the consolidation. Break of 98.87 will be an important signal that whole rally from 87.12 is resuming and break of 101.43 will pave the way to next key level at 110.65. However, note that a break below 93.58/84 support zone will invalidate the bullish case. Instead, it will revive the bearish case that USD/JPY has completed a head and shoulder top (ls: 99.67, h: 101.43, rs: 98.87) and will in turn indicate that whole down trend from 124.43 is still in progress.

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