USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.93; (P) 104.37; (R1) 104.86; More.

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. Intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 103.75 minor support holds. The whole rebound from 95.77 is still expected to extend further to 104.96/108.59 resistance zone. On the downside, though, below 103.75 will suggest that consolidation from 104.64 is still in progress. But still, a break of 100.02 support is needed to indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor after pullback

In the bigger picture, break of 103.59 cluster resistance, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 103.31) argues that a medium term bottom is in place after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Focus is now on 108.59 resistance and break of which will break a series of lower highs, lower lows pattern that started at 124.13 and will confirm that this down trend has completed already. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first.

However, failure below 108.59, followed by break of 100.02 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern intact and suggest that down trend from 124.13 is still in force.

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