USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.89; (P) 104.36; (R1) 104.63; More.

USD/JPY's strong rebound in early US session and the brief break of 104.82 argues that recent rebound from 95.77 has resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 103.18 support holds. Further rise could now be seen to 104.96/108.59 resistance zone. However, note that upside momentum is still seen in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Below 103.18 will argue that rise from 95.77 has completed and will put focus back to lower channel support (now at 102.02). Break will add more credence to this case and bring further fall to 100.02 support.

In the bigger picture, break of 103.59 cluster resistance, as well as 55 days EMA (now at 103.31) argues that a medium term bottom is in place after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. Focus is now on 108.59 resistance and break of which will break a series of lower highs, lower lows pattern that started at 124.13 and will confirm that this down trend has completed already. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first.

However, failure below 108.59, followed by break of 100.02 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern intact and suggest that down trend from 124.13 is still in force.

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