USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.11; (P) 104.03; (R1) 104.65; More.

USD/JPY's fall from 105.70 continues today and extends further to as low as 102.61 in early US session. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 103.62 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI argues that whole rebound from 95.77 is over. Break of mentioned channel support will add more credence to this case and put 100.02 support into focus. Break will confirm and encourage a retest of 95.77 low. On the upside, though, above 103.62 will indicate an intraday low is in place and turn outlook neutral first.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. The rebound from there has met upside target of 104.96/108.59 resistance zone already. Failure below 108.59, followed by break of 100.02 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern intact and suggest that down trend from 124.13 is still in force.

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