USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.29; (P) 103.13; (R1) 103.64; More.

USD/JPY's recovery extends to 104.04 in early US session. Further downside is still mildly in favor as long as 104.10 resistance holds. As mentioned before, bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI argues the rebound from 95.77 has topped out at 105.70 already. Below 102.58 will indicate fall from there has resumed and will put 100.02 support into focus. Break will confirm this case and bring retest of 95.77 low. However, above 104.10 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and argues that USD/JPY is just turning into sideway consolidations.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. The rebound from there has met upside target of 104.96/108.59 resistance zone already. Failure below 108.59, followed by break of 100.02 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern that started at 124.13 intact and suggest that down trend from there is still in force. However, break of 108.59 resistance will confirm that this down trend has completed already. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first.

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