USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.33; (P) 104.81; (R1) 105.20; More.

Despite some brief recovery, USD/JPY's fall from 105.44 resumes in early US session. As discussed before, with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top is in place. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 105.70 resistance will confirm whole rebound from 95.77 has resumed for 38.2% retracement of 124.13 to 95.77 at 106.60. But still, resistance should continued to build up significantly as USD/JPY approaches 108.59 medium term resistance. On the downside, break of 102.58 support will indicate rise from 95.77 has completed. and bring deeper decline to 100.02 support and below.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY has made a medium term bottom after down trend from 124.13 has just met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78. The rebound from there has met upside target of 104.96/108.59 resistance zone already. Failure below 108.59, followed by break of 102.58 support will firstly indicate rebound from 95.77 has completed. Secondly, it will keep the lower higher, lower lows pattern that started at 124.13 intact and suggest that down trend from there is still in force. However, break of 108.59 resistance will confirm that this down trend has completed already. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should then be seen to retest 114.77 resistance first.

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