USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 92.76; (P) 94.49; (R1) 95.44; More.

At this point, further downside is still in favor as long as 96.24 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, rebound from 90.92 has possibly completed at 100.54 already and retest of this low should be seen. However, on the upside, above 96.24 will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Also, further break of 98.18 resistance will indicate that fall from 100.54 has completed. Also, this will revive the case that correction from 90.92 is still in progress for another rise to 100.54 and above before completion.

In the bigger picture, as long as 103.06 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 110.66 to 90.92 at 103.11) holds, medium term outlook remains bearish. Prior break of 95.77 low confirms that whole down trend from 124.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3 next. Also, note that the current development clears out the long term picture too. Price actions that started from 79.75 (95 low) has completed in form of a triangle that ended with five waves to 124.13. In other words fall from 124.13 is just part of an even larger scale down trend which could extend further to retest 79.75 low.

On the upside, sustained break of 103.06 cluster resistance will firstly argue that fall from 110.66 has completed. Secondly, it will also argue that a medium term low is in place at 90.92 and outlook will be turned neutral with focus back to 110.66 high.

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