USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.58; (P) 90.82; (R1)91.02; More.

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. But after all, another fall is still expected in USD/JPY as long as 92.03 resistance holds. Below 90.30 will bring fall resumption to 87.36 support next. Break there will confirm the bearish case that whole rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. This will also argue that medium term down trend is resuming for a new low below 84.81. On the upside, above 0.9203 will argue that fall from 93.74 is completed and will bring stronger recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 93.74 resistance holds and another fall is still in favor after the consolidations.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.71 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.07. Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box