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Forex Daily Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."



Jobs: Late Cycle Job Slowdown, Rising Labor Costs Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Feb 05 16 15:00 GMT
Our theme for the annual outlook was the Great Divide and we certainly see this in today's employment report. Nonfarm employment rose 151,000 in December - a downshift consistent with slower overall GDP and industrial production growth in 2016 compared to 2015. We have emphasized the divergence between the production and services sides of the economy over the past six months and we can see that divergence in today's numbers. Although manufacturing employment surprised to the upside, mining employment fell for the 11th straight month. Employment in the services sector, on the other hand, rose by 118,000 jobs, yet there has been a clear slowdown relative to the second half of 2015. Moreover, growth in the residential and nonresidential construction sectors remains evident in the 18,000 gain in construction jobs last month. These gains represent solid trends supporting continued economic growth and certainly do not signal recession.
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US: Beneath a Weaker January Headline the Labor Market Remains Resilient Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Feb 05 16 14:55 GMT
For those looking for confirmation that the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession, this morning's report will surely disappoint. Sure, the headline payroll gain slowed from the red-hot fourth-quarter pace, but much of it was to be expected given the overly warm start to winter. In fact, the weakness appears concentrated in temporary help services, which cut the 25k jobs that it added the previous month - likely related to parcel shipments and other seasonal work. Aside for that, the education and government sectors lost 50k and 7k, respectively, both likely related to the blizzard after-effects.
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Canadian Employment Flops in January Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Feb 05 16 14:52 GMT
The Canadian economy lost 5,700 jobs in January, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.2%. While one month doesn't make a trend, total employment is only up 0.7% (or 126K jobs) since last year, while the unemployment rate has risen 0.6 percentage points since its post-recession low of 6.6% in January of last year.
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NFP Recap: Not as Bad as it Looks... Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | Feb 05 16 14:47 GMT
As the monthly tradition dictates, traders eagerly awaited today's US jobs report with the (lack of) patience of a kid on Christmas. When the report was finally unveiled, it was by no means the anticipated "Red Ryder Carbine Action 200-shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and "this thing which tells time" (a sundial)" that Ralphie Parker desperately wanted in the classic 1983 film "A Christmas Story," but it's hardly as disappointing as some have made it out to be.
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USD/JPY - Yen Subdued Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Feb 05 16 13:34 GMT
The Japanese yen is in a holding pattern on Friday, as USD/JPY trades slightly below the 117 line in European session. In the US, there are two key events on the schedule - Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. Traders should be prepared for possible volatility from the pair during the North American session. The yen has enjoyed an outstanding week, having surged a remarkable points 450 points against the US dollar. This follows sharp losses by the yen late last week, following the surprise move by the BOJ to adopt negative interest rates for the first time in its history.
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NFP: What The Market Needs Today Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Feb 05 16 12:41 GMT
It's the first Friday of a new month and that means only one thing - it's non-farm payroll (NFP). All eyes will be front and center when January's U.S monthly jobs report is released in a few hours. The NFP headline print will round off a week that has seen the USD come under considerable pressure-Wednesday was the worst trading day for the 'mighty' buck in seven-years with the dollar index falling just under -2%.
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AUD/USD - Aussie Pauses After Strong Gains Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Feb 05 16 12:39 GMT
The Australian dollar is flat on Friday, as the pair is trading slightly below the 0.72 line on the European session. On the release front, the RBA policy statement was mildly optimistic, while Australian Retail Sales slipped to 0.0%, missing expectations. In the US, there are two key events - Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. Traders should be prepared for possible volatility from the pair during the North American session.
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EUR/USD – Euro Rallies On Weak US Data Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Feb 05 16 11:29 GMT
EUR/USD continues to climb, and is trading at the 1.12 line in Friday’s European session. On the release front, German manufacturing numbers missed expectations. In the US, there are two key events – Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. Traders should be prepared for possible volatility from the pair during the North American session.
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NFP To Remain Strong Despite Faltering Economy Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Swissquote Bank SA | Feb 05 16 11:00 GMT
We are unmistakably watching a currency crisis unfold in slow motion. While the end-game is not preordained in our view, we are heading in that direction (i.e. crisis). Lines have been drawn and positions taken. The Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has gone on the offensive this week to offset damage done by RMB speculators. Recently public comments by well-regarded and significantly funded asset managers indicate their expectations for further RMB devaluations. SAFE's new head, Pan Gongsheng (old PBoC deputy Governor) stated that FX reserves remain sufficient and anticipates a current account surplus in 2016.
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European Market Update: US Jan Jobs Data Eyed For Any Re-Pricing Of Fed Policy Expectations Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | Feb 05 16 10:54 GMT
The USD consolidated its recent losses ahead of the Jan Non-farm payroll data. Jobs will be eyed for signs of moderating economic momentum and any re-pricing of Fed policy expectations. EUR/USD consolidated its recent gains after posting roughly 4-month highs at 1.1238
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Gold Hovers Near Three-Month High, Poised To Its Third Straight Weekly Gain Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ICN.com | Feb 05 16 09:46 GMT
Gold hovered near the highest level in three months on Friday, as the strong selloff in the U.S. dollar helped demand on the metal as an alternative investment. The precious metal climbed to a high of $1156.80 an ounce, while currently trading around $1153.14 from the session’s opening at $1154.87. The yellow metal is meanwhile set for its third consecutive weekly gain and the steepest weekly advance in a month as it has gained more than 3 percent.
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Aussie Dollar's Rally Runs Out Of Steam After RBA Statement Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ICN.com | Feb 05 16 09:45 GMT
The Aussie dollar's rally, which took the Australian currency to one-month high, run out of steam on Friday as the Reserve Bank of Australia left the door open for further interest rate cuts. RBA statement for February's monetary decision, which included no change in interest rate, mentioned the central bank could slash its cash rate if needed. The statement also cited concerns from the impact of slowdown in China and volatility in global financial markets on the Australian economy.
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Dollar Bulls Seek NFP Lifeline Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ForexTime | Feb 05 16 09:08 GMT
Stock markets received a slight uplift during trading on Thursday, although this has nothing to do with an improved sentiment towards the global economy, but a sharp depreciation in the value of the Dollar. Asian equities opened noticeably shaky on Friday with the Nikkei sinking -1.32% as concerns mounted in the Japanese markets over the possibility that the Dollar would weaken further against the Yen. Although European and American equities grasped the opportunity to conclude positively on Thursday based on Dollar weakness, an air of caution ahead of the anticipated NFP report today may result in a lower open with prices depressed.
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FX Market On Hold Ahead Of NFPs Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Swissquote Bank SA | Feb 05 16 09:06 GMT
As expected the Bank of England maintained its benchmark rate at record-low 2% (even Ian McCafferty switched his hawkish vote). The MPC revised down its growth projection to 2.2% from 2.5% for 2016 and to 2.4% from 2.7% for 2017. As expected, the MPC also trimmed the inflation forecast to 0.4% from 0.7% for 2016 and to 1.2% from 1.5% for 2017 as wage pressure remained subdued and energy prices continued to weigh. Initially, the market sent the pound sterling lower amid the unanimous decision to leave rate unchanged. However, Mark Carney's comments were less dovish than anticipated by investors, which helped the pound to bounce back to its pre-announcement levels. All in all, both the comments and the revised projections were in line with market expectations. In Tokyo, GBP/USD stabilised at around 1.4550, consolidating this week 2.3% gains.
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Dollar Extends Decline Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by KBC Bank | Feb 05 16 08:06 GMT
Yesterday, the USD declined further as investors adapted positions for a softer Fed-tightening path. Today, the focus is on the US payrolls. A poor report would be negative for the dollar, but quite some bad news should already be discounted after the recent decline in US yields and in the dollar
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RBA Cautiously Optimistic On Australia's Economy Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | Feb 05 16 08:02 GMT
The Reserve Bank of Australia voiced a cautious optimism on the domestic economy in its quarterly update on monetary policy in light of global financial turmoil. However, the central bank reiterated that despite local optimism, uncertainty about China's growth prospects and the management of its economic slowdown remain a major global headwind. The RBA was confident that robust demand for jobs would persist despite slowdown in the mining sector and rising global market volatility. Furthermore, the bank admitted that the transition out of the mining boom was starting to take hold. The RBA made no significant changes to its prediction for GDP growth from its November statement, expecting the domestic economy to grow at an average pace of 2.5% in 2016 and 3% in 2017. However, the central bank predicted a persistent decline in the unemployment rate, whereas back in November the RBA said it expected the jobless rate to hold between 6.0%-6.25% over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, the official rate for December dropped to 5.8% after peaking at 6.3% during 2015.
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BoE Turns Unanimous On Rate Decision Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | Feb 05 16 08:01 GMT
The Bank of England revised its economic growth forecasts due to a gloomier global outlook. Moreover, the lone policy maker who had voted for a rate hike in recent months unexpectedly changed his mind. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee had voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold at a record-low 0.5%, where they have stayed for almost seven years. The central bank said sharp plunge in oil prices and equities, and significant risks in emerging economies, weighed on the global outlook, though sturdy domestic demand should ensure the UK growth still remained near its long-run average. The BoE forecast the UK's economy would grow 2.2% this year and 2.3% in 2017, down from f2.5% and 2.6% in predicted in November and barely changed from 2015, when growth disappointed expectations. On top of that, the February Inflation Report lowered the short-term inflation outlook, with CPI at around 0.82% and 1.91% by the end of 2016 and 2017 respectively. The BoE expects inflation to exceed the 2% goal during the first quarter of 2018 for the first time.
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US Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, Productivity Falls Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | Feb 05 16 07:58 GMT
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, signalling some loss of momentum in the labour market due to a steep economic slowdown and stock market rout. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 285,000 for the week ended January 30, the Labor Department reported. The prior week's claims were revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. Despite the increase last week, claims remained below 300,000, a level associated with strong labour market conditions, for the 48th straight week. That is the longest run since the early 1970s. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,000 to 284,750 last week. The data came ahead of the government's more comprehensive report on Friday. Economists predict that the report will show employers added 200,000 jobs and the jobless rate remained at 5.0%.
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ECB Ready To Act Regardless Of Weak Global Inflation Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | Feb 05 16 07:56 GMT
The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi voiced another strong hint that the bank is ready to act decisively to combat weak inflation. Draghi said that even though inflation is low globally, it would not stop the central bank from adding stimulus to the Euro zone if necessity arises. Moreover, the risk of acting too late is greater than that of acting too early as a wait-and-see mode could result in a lasting loss of confidence. The ECB is currently reviewing its monetary policy actions and policy makers will decide on March 10 whether the current plan of negative interest rates and a 1.5 trillion-euro QE programme yield fruit. Meanwhile, the latest data showed consumer prices in the Euro area climbed an annual 0.4% in January and the rate is likely to turn negative in coming months. The reading has been below 1% for more than two years. While Euro zone's unemployment dropped to the lowest level in four years in December, the region's manufacturing and services industries lowered prices at the quickest pace in almost a year in January, underscoring challenges for the ECB to bring inflation to the targeted level.
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AUD/USD: Aussie Trading Lower In The Asian Session Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by GCI Financial | Feb 05 16 06:56 GMT
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7150, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7116. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7232, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7279.
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