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May 05 06:43 GMT

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Forex Daily Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."



Asian Market Update: China, Hong Kong PMIs Slow Further, Australia Exports Recover As Trade Deficit Narrows Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | May 05 16 06:35 GMT
Asian equity markets are trading lower again as risk-off flows in US hours driven by disappointing ADP jobs data continued to sway sentiment in favor of the bears. Worries about the Q2 slowdown were further reflected in Atlanta Fed GDP estimate that was revised by a decimal to 1.7%, while US Treasuries were bid higher. China Caixin Services PMI also saw a downtick for April, tracking the similarly disappointing Manufacturing survey out earlier this week. Australia March retail and trade data topped expectations however, putting any further possibility of easing by the RBA into question. In FX majors, AUD/USD rose some 40pips above $0.7490 on release of those figures, NZD/USD was up nearly 30pips around $0.69, and USD/JPY was rangebound at 106.90-107.20. Yuan fix was set much weaker once again as China prepares to release its own trade figures over the weekend.
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European Open Briefing Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by IC Markets | May 05 16 06:08 GMT
After high volatility on Monday and Tuesday, markets have calmed down and in Asia, price action in the major pairs was quiet. EUR/USD traded 1.1482-93, while GBP/USD was caught in a 1.4491-1.4520 range. Renewed Brexit worries and weak UK econ data have put the British Pound under pressure and it is down almost 300 pips from Tuesday's high at 1.4718.
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Dollar And Gold Expectations Into NFP Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Vantage FX | May 05 16 01:31 GMT
Following yesterday's lead, USD strength has continued to dominate the forex trading landscape into this morning. Traders shrugged off a notoriously unreliable March private payrolls miss, with the USD momentum unable to be halted on the unreliable and laggy release. The ADP report showed an increase of 156K jobs, missing the market's 195K expectation. While this opens the door for a possibly weak Non Farm Payrolls number on Friday night, nothing really changes until markets see that number itself.
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U.S. Service Sector Activity Continued to Push Higher in April Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | May 04 16 16:11 GMT
Contrary to its manufacturing counterpart which slipped last month, the ISM non-manufacturing index continued to forge ahead in April. Following two consecutive monthly gains, the index is now at the highest level since December, suggesting that pace of activity in the U.S. services sector is accelerating from the slowdown experienced in the first quarter. Given that service sector industries account for nearly 70% of the GDP, rising momentum in this sector bodes well for the second quarter outlook, suggesting that growth should accelerate above the 2.0% mark.
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US Crude Subdued, Crude Inventories Jumps Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 04 16 16:09 GMT
US crude futures are almost unchanged on Wednesday, following losses on Monday and Tuesday. US Crude is trading at $44.12 in the North American session. Brent crude is trading at $45.22, as the Brent premium stands at $1.10. On the release front, Crude Oil Inventories increased to 2.8 million barrels, much higher than the estimate of 0.6 million. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls dropped sharply to 156 thousand, well short of the estimate of 205 thousand. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 55.7 points, beating the estimate of 54.9 points.
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Gold Under Pressure, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Slides Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 04 16 16:09 GMT
Gold has posted slight losses on Wednesday, continuing the small downward movement which marked the Monday and Tuesday sessions. Gold is trading at a spot price of $1279.42 an ounce in the North American session. On the release front, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls dropped sharply to 156 thousand, well short of the estimate of 205 thousand. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 55.7 points, beating the estimate of 54.9 points. Crude Oil Inventories increased to 2.8 million barrels, much higher than the estimate of 0.6 million.
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US Trade Deficit Narrowed as Expected in March Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by RBC Financial Group | May 04 16 14:31 GMT
US dollar appreciation and strength in domestic demand relative to subdued growth abroad were responsible for earlier widening in the real trade deficit. While those trends were less prominent in the first quarter - domestic demand growth slowed and the US dollar weakened - net trade remained a drag on GDP. The trade-weighted US dollar has now fallen 6% from its mid-January 2016 high, but it remains historically elevated, and the lagged effect of earlier strength will continue to support imports and hamper exports. Our forecast assumes domestic spending will pick up following a weak first quarter, which along with currency headwinds and relatively subdued demand from abroad will result in net trade remaining a modest drag on growth going forward.
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Canada's March Merchandise Trade Deficit Jumps Higher Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by RBC Financial Group | May 04 16 14:30 GMT
The drop in export volumes was disappointing because it added further to the sizeable February drop, although this followed outsized gains during the previous two months. This earlier strength still points to export volumes rising by a robust 9.4% in the first quarter of 2016. With imports in the first quarter up by a lesser 2.5%, net exports are poised to contribute 1.8 percentage points to annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter. With this addition and indications of solid consumer spending in the quarter, overall GDP still looks poised to rise to more than 3% in the first quarter.
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FX5: Dollars Demise Dismissed For Now Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 04 16 12:54 GMT
Trading yesterday was not for the faint of heart. Global markets were shaken by continued weak growth readings in China and Europe coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprise decision to lower rates. The various asset price moves were complemented by a significant reversal to the 'mighty' buck. As we head to the open stateside, the mood is somewhat subdued, but investors concerns are the same as the market gears itself up for the granddaddy of all economic indicators, Friday's non-farm payroll (NFP).
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NZD/USD – NZ Dollar Slide Continues As Dairy Auction, Jobless Rate Disappoint Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 04 16 11:20 GMT
NZD/USD has posted losses on Wednesday, continuing the downward trend which marked the Tuesday session. The pair is trading slightly below the 0.69 line in the European session. In New Zealand, the Dairy Price Auction posted a drop of 1.4%. Employment Change gained 1.2%, beating expectations. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7%, above the estimate. The US will release two key indicators – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
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Negative Pressure Continues To Push Gold Away From $1300 Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ICN.com | May 04 16 10:51 GMT
Gold resumed its ease from the psychological level of $1300, extending its drop for a third straight session on Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar rebounded from its lowest level since January 2015. The precious metal hit a low of $1278.71 an ounce, while currently trading around $1281.20 from the opening at $1285.35. The dollar index, which tracks the green currency’s movements versus a basket of six major currencies, rebounded from a low of 91.88 on Tuesday after hawkish comments from two Fed officials.
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Asian Shares Fall On Global Growth Worries Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ICN.com | May 04 16 09:34 GMT
Most Asian stocks retreated on Wednesday, withmarkets in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan bearing the brunt of the selling, after U.S. stocks fell sharply to hit a three-week low overnight in reaction to falling oil prices, weak Chinese and U.K. manufacturing data and downgrades to GDP and inflation forecasts from the European Commission.
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Still Room For USD Weakness Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Swissquote Bank SA | May 04 16 09:33 GMT
Risky assets continued to sell-off following yesterday's weak equity performance. US equity markets closed lower as disappointing reads from China and UK manufacturing refocused US investor's attentions on weakness abroad. US treasury yields halted their downward march but hardly reversed the bearish trend as demand for safety remained strong. US 2-year yields are now consolidating around 0.75%, while 10's are below 1.80%. In FX markets the USD has marginally rallied as traders move into safer assets. However, without interest rate support we do not expect this move to be stable. Short term USD buying was also supported by comments from Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart who, despite an overriding dovish tone, indicated that June will be a live meeting. Today's ADP and employment component of the services ISM is expected to highlight a slowdown in US labor market growth and Friday's critical payroll report. Economic weakness that will further lower the market's expectation for two rate hikes in 2016 and send USD bulls to the exits. Despite near bottom Fed pricing we do not see any fundamental rational for an extended reversal in USD selling. However globally, there is growing discontent over the trend and pace of USD depreciation. The RBA surprise rate cut indicated that an appreciating exchange rate could “complicate” adjustments and further cuts to record low cash rate of 1.75% could occur to ward off unwanted AUD strength. In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda and Finance Minister Aso have bombarded the market with threats that ‘intensification' of yen movements could trigger action (direct FX intervention). We should not forget that we are in the middle of a ten year "Currency War" where excessive USD weakness could trigger policy actions.
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European Market Update: Major European Services PMI Revised Lower Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Trade The News | May 04 16 09:26 GMT
Dealers noted that USD had developed a key reversal formation, a technical signal suggesting a near-term trend change and USD strength. The greenback moved off multi-month lows in trading on Tuesday. In USD majors, USD/JPY spiked toward 107.50 in early Asia before consolidating back below 107.00
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AUD/USD – Aussie Steady, Markets Eye Trade Balance And Retail Sales Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 04 16 09:21 GMT
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday, following sharp losses in the Tuesday session. AUD/USD is trading at the 0.75 line in the European session. In economic news, there are a host of key releases out of Australia and the US. Australia will release Trade Balance and Retail Sales, while the US publishes ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
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USD/JPY – Yen Subdued In Light Holiday Trade Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 04 16 08:30 GMT
USD/JPY is steady on Wednesday, as the pair trades just below the 107 line in the European session. On the release front, it's a quiet day, with no major events in the US. There are no Japanese releases on the schedule, as the markets remained closed for a holiday. We'll get a look at two key US indicators later in the day – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
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Sell-Off In Risky Assets Ahead Of Data Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Swissquote Bank SA | May 04 16 08:29 GMT
Risk appetite was reduced in the Asian session despite no clear catalyst suggesting short-term mean reverting behavior. Potentially, the sell-off in risky assets could have been triggered by news that Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee following a conclusive victory in the Indiana primary and Ted Cruz’s confirmation of the end of his campaign. The prospect of a USA President Trump makes everyone, including battled hardened financial professionals, very concerned. Asian regional equity indices were broadly in the red and the Hang Seng fell -0.79%, Shanghai composite -0.03% and ASX down -1.47% reversing yesterday's RBA driven gains. Oil was weak, below $44brl as US inventories indicated expanded stockpiles. Stockpile news added to concerns caused by weakness in China PMI and manufacturing confidence forcing commodity traders to rethink the Asia based recovery story. USD was broadly stronger following recent heavy selling, yet demand volume remains light. EURUSD pulled back from yesterday’s 1.1616 highs to 1.1494. A similar pattern was seen in USDJPY as the pair further corrected off the lows at 105.55, rising to 107.46.
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Brexit Looms Large, June Is A 'Live Meeting', Lockhart Says Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | May 04 16 08:28 GMT
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said that the UK's referendum on whether to leave the EU could 'loom large' as the Fed weigh whether to hike interest rates at its next policy meeting. Lockhart underlined that Brexit could potentially lead to heightened global uncertainty. Yet, the policy maker added that the US economy could warrant a rate hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on June 14-15. Lockhart said the market seemed to be underestimating the odds of a rate lift in June. Investors currently only assign a 12% chance of such a move, according to pricing in interest rate futures contracts. Lockhart said two rate hikes this year are certainly possible. Lockhart is not a voting member of the Fed's FOMC, but his view is seen as a bellwether for what the majority on the central bank is thinking.
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RBA Unexpctedly Cuts OCR Amid Slowing Inflation Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | May 04 16 08:27 GMT
The UK manufacturing sector encountered a surprise contraction in April that reflected in the PMI, as it entered negative territory for the first time in 4 years, plummeting under the 50 point mark to show 49.2 points. The indicator missed the initial investor forecast of 51.2 and fuelled concerns by showing a drop in comparison to March. Worries about industry health were amplified by the Markit Economics claim that output in the manufacturing sector is shrinking in a scale of 1% per quarter, and around 20 000 jobs have already been lost in the last three months. Uncertainty over the outcome of the EU referendum can spawn further effects on Britain's currency and economy. While recent polls have indicated a positive trend in regard to remaining part of the EU, both global and domestic organizations warn that a vote in favour of Brexit can potentially prompt an economic downturn and imbalances. A combination of uncertainty generating factors both domestically and globally are likely to contribute to a slowdown for the industry in the second quarter.
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New Zealand Unemployment Increases Amid Rise In Labour Participation Print E-mail
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group | May 04 16 08:25 GMT
New Zealand's first quarter employment data showed unemployment rose as the participation and employment rate also increased. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.7% in the reported period, from a revised 5.4% the prior quarter and above the forecast of 5.5%. Despite the increase in unemployment, the data suggested the economy was performing well. The participation rate advanced to 69.0% while employment rose 1.2%. However, of those entering the labour force 10,000 failed to find jobs, while the remaining 28,000 were employed. The cost of labour index rose 1.8% on an annualized basis in the March quarter, up from 1.6% in the three months through December. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter, labour cost grew 0.4%, in line with the prior quarter. In the March quarter, New Zealand's inflation climbed 0.4% on year, meaning real wages are still growing at a strong pace, which is likely to continue to boost consumption. The RBNZ is expecting annual inflation at 1.1% by end-2016, down from the forecast of 1.6% made at its December policy review, and just inside its 1% to 3% target range.
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