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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jul 23 10 07:03 GMT
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Wakeup Call: Risk Appetite On Opening - Could Reverse As We Approach The Release Time Of Stress Test Results
We expect the risk appetite sentiment from the overnight trading session in Asia to continue here in the beginning of the opening of the European session. Be careful markets before release of results.
What's going on?
We expect this risk appetite sentiment that spurred a rally overnight in Asia on the back of positive surprises in new industrial orders in the Euro-Zone and better than expected earnings from Microsoft to continue here in the beginning of the European session. UK GDP could turn the picture, but today’s major event is the release of the stress test results at 18:00 CET.
Trichet said yesterday that it is time for a global tightening (cuts in public spending and higher taxes) as the recovery is now so strong that these policy moves will not curb growth. This is in rather sharp contrast to FED Chairman Bernanke which believes that fiscal tightening should be delayed at least until 2011. We believe that the cut back on public spending is the right thing to do in order to restore the economy for longer term growth.
Calendar
| Economic Data Releases |
| Country |
Time (GMT) |
Name |
Saxo |
Consensus |
Prior |
| UK |
08:30 |
GDP Qoq/YoY (2Q) |
- |
0.6%/1.1% |
0.3%/-0.2% |
| UK |
08:30 |
BBA Loans For House Purchases (JUN) |
- |
37.000 |
36.709 |
| CA |
11:00 |
CPI MoM/YoY (JUN) |
- |
0.0%/1.0% |
0.3%/1.4% |
| Earnings Data Releases |
| Country |
Time (GMT) |
Name |
Saxo |
Consensus |
Prior |
| SW |
07:30 |
Scania AB |
2.163 |
1.780 |
|
| US |
Bef-Mkt |
McDonald |
1.119 |
1.050 |
|
| US |
11:00 |
Ford |
0.408 |
0.480 |
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FX
| FX |
Daily stance |
Comment |
| EURUSD |
0/+ |
Buy dips to 1.2850 for the next leg back to 1.30, stop below 1.2810 |
| USDJPY |
0/+ |
Buy dips down to 86.50-60 area for a rebound to 87.45 then 88.0. Stop below 86.25 |
| EURJPY |
0/+ |
Buy dips to 111.40 for a rebound to 113.20. Stop below 110.90 |
| GBPUSD |
0/+ |
Buy dips to 1.5250, or break of 1.5300 for 1.5350. Stop below 1.5210, 1.5250 resp. |
| AUDUSD |
0/+ |
Buy dips down to 0.8860 for a push towards 0.90, stop below 0.8820 |
| USDCAD |
0/- |
Expect to find res at 1.0420 for a drift down to 1.0350 again. Stop abv 1.0470 |
Equities
| Equities |
Daily stance |
Comment |
| DAX |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 6100 targeting 6152. S/L below 6080. |
| FTSE |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 5266 targeting 5320. S/L below 5245. |
| S&P500 |
0/+ |
Buy on dips towards 1088 targeting 1099. S/L below 1085. |
| NASDAQ100 |
0/+ |
|
| DJIA |
0/+ |
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Futures
| Commodities |
Daily Stance |
Comment |
| Gold |
0/- |
Sell rallies to 1,185 fir a test of 1,170. Stop abv 1,196 |
| Silver |
0/- |
Capped at 17.80 for a push to 17.20, stop abv 17.95 |
| Oil (CLU0) |
0/- |
Look for dip towards 76.0. Below sees 74.70 with res strong at 78.0 |
FX-Options
| EURUSD |
Vols were initially bid in Europe but market seems to be less anxious about the results of the stress test and started selling options. Monday strikes still bid over the event. |
| USDJPY |
Market continues to sell vols after risk aversion was completely forgotten by the market. Risk reversals have also come under pressure with Yen calls getting sold. |
| AUDUSD |
Vols got hammered as spot continues to hold above 8900. Gamma sellers push front end much lower with 1m now14.4% vs 15.5% just a day ago. |
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