$/Yen, Major Bottom Finally in Place?

As been discussing in the longer term for $/yen, the market (along with yen crosses) may be the big mover in 2012, as the market continues to form a huge falling wedge since 2007. These are seen as reversal patterns that often resolve sharply higher, and raises the potential for a major bottom (for at least 12-18 months or more, see weekly chart below). Earlier today, the market broke above that ceiling (currently at 77.40/60, see shorter term below) and with a close above increasing the likelihood that the more major low is indeed in place. Also, the market is seen within the final leg of the wedge pattern (wave V), while the bullish outlook in the yen crosses remains, and with both adding to this very positive outlook. So for now, would switch the longer term bias from neutral to bullish on a daily close above that trendline from 2007. Note, I am generally only a fan in the use of options in very specific cases. In this situation, vols are very low given the extended period with relatively little movement, and with the potential for a jump in those vols (along with prices), it might be a good idea to look into long dated (6-9 months or more), low delta options.

Nearer term as mentioned above, the market has broken above the bearish trendline/ ceiling of the potential wedge since June 2007, increasing the likelihood that a more important low is in place. Still short from the Dec 9th sell at 77.60, and will continue to stop (and reverse) on a close above, as would target further gains toward the ceiling of the bear channel since Aug (currently at 78.65/75), and potentially much higher (see longer term above). Would also then use a stop on a close below the bullish trendline from Oct (currently at 76.60/70), and getting more aggressive on approach of the ceiling of that channel, as there is some risk for a continued period of broad basing. Nearby resistance is seen at 78.20/30 (Nov/Dec highs).

Current:
Nearer term: short Dec 9th at 77.60, stop/rev on close above bear t-line from Jun 2007 (cur 77.40/50).
Last : long Aug 23rd at 76.55, took small profit on Sept 14th bull t-line from Aug (76.80, closed 76.60).

Longer term: neutral, but will switch to bull on daily close above bear t-line from 2007 (cur at 77.40/50).
Last : neutral Sept 13th at 76.75 from bear Jul 22nd at 78.45, but looking to switch to bull ahead.