Eur/Yen, Stay Long, Just the Start of the Gains

In the Feb 1st email on eur/yen, said want to be long but with risk for further ranging nearby, to wait for a break above the bearish trendline from Nov 1st before entering. Broke above there on Tue (then at 101.30, closed at 101.75), getting long. The market has rallied further since, breaking above the Jan high at 102.20, toward 104.00/15 (50% retracement from the Oct high at 111.35), and potentially much higher ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market is seen within wave 3 or C in the rally from the Jan 16th low at 97.06. With a more important bottom potentially in place (see longer term below), "prefer" the more bullish scenario (wave 3), and raises the potential for further, sharp gains directly ahead (though both scenarios suggest at least some further gains). So for now, want to stay long and using a close below the bullish trendline from the Jan low (currently at 100.35/50). But will want to get more aggressive on further upside and especially if the likelihood of the less bullish scenario (wave C) starts to increase (big picture, slowing upside momentum, etc.).

Longer term no change, as the market is seen completing an important bottom at the Jan 16th low at 97.05, for at least a few months (and more likely 9-12 months or more). Note that the long held view of a multi-year falling wedge/reversal pattern remains, and suggests gains toward the ceiling (currently at 114.75/00), and eventually above. Also, the fall from the April high at 123.30 is seen as the final leg of the pattern (wave V), there was a bullish "false break" of the base, and the previously discussed double bottoms at important turning points occurred at the Jan low (lows approx 3 months apart, see weekly chart/2nd chart below), and all add to the view of a more major bottom in place. Note too this longer term bullish view also fits the longer term, positive outlook for other yen crosses (see yesterday's email on stg/yen for example), and $/yen. Switched the longer term bias in eur/yen to the bullish side on Feb 7th at 101.75.

Current:
Nearer term : long on Feb 7th close above the bearish trendline from Nov 1st (101.30, closed 101.75).
Last : short Dec 12 at 102.65, took profit Jan 18 above bear t-line from Dec (98.55, closed 98.75).

Longer term : bullish bias on Feb 7th at 101.75, potentially major bottom in place.
Last : neutral Nov 9 at 105.35 from bull Oct 27 at 107.70.