Forex Technical Update

EUR/USD: Euro is currently trading at 1.4461. Euro is holding positive due to ECB monetary tightening policy last week. Portugal has finally applied for a bailout to tackle its debt crisis and EU officials have pledged to complete an 80 billion euro aid package by mid-May. Looking ahead, EUR French Industrial Production m/m is expected to be weaker at 0.5% vs 1.0% previously. Immediate resistance comes near 1.4479 levels (4hrly Upper Bollinger) while immediate strong support is seen around 1.4340 levels (21 days 4hrly EMA and Middle Bollinger). EURINR (63.84): Exporters can cover partially at 63.95 levels for April exposure while importers can cover near 63.00 levels and further on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 63.20 - 63.90 levels today. Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

GBP/USD: The Sterling is currently trading at 1.6367 levels. PPI Input m/m came out better at 3.7% vs 1.4% previously. GBP is holding strong as it appears that the pair is holding strong on the possible rate hike expectations as price pressures continues to build up. Support is seen near 1.6332 (4 hrly Middle Bollinger) and resistance is seen near 1.6454 (Daily Upper Bollinger). GBP/INR (72.28) exporters should cover near 72.35 regions and short term importers can cover near 71.90 levels. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 71.90 to 72.40 levels. Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

USD/JPY: The pair is currently trading near 84.77 levels. Core Machinery Orders m/m came out weaker this morning at -2.3% vs 4.2% previously. Japan's economic survey fell sharply in March due to the impact of the recent natural disaster. The current conditions index declined to 27.7 in March, from 48.4 while the outlook index fell to 26.6, from 47.2 in February. Resistance is seen near 85.29 (Weekly 55 days EMA) while support is seen near 84.08 levels (4hrly 55 days EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure near 82.50-83.00 levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 85.10 levels since yen is holding weak currently. Short term: Bullishness in the pair.

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar is trading above psychological resistance of 1.0500 levels. Aud is holding strong against the dollar on higher gold and other commodity prices. Support is seen near 1.0481 levels (4 hrly 21 days EMA) while resistance is seen near 1.0598 levels (4hrly upper Bollinger). Exporters are suggested to book exposure partially at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0300 regions. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

Gold: Gold is trading at 1473.23 levels. The Gold Price hit new all-time as Japan's huge monetary response to the recent earthquake disaster, and the US government's impending "shutdown" after lawmakers failed to agree a new budget ceiling. Gold is maintaining its uptrend with target of $1480 levels. On the downside, buying is expected near support at 1430-1440 levels. Medium term: Bullish

Oil: Crude oil is currently trading at $112.69 levels as a tension continues in MENA regions. In Libya Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi agreed to accept an African Union peace plan that could lead to a cease-fire with rebels but rebels seems to be against the cease fire as this will insure Muammar Qaddafi to stay in power. Resistance is seen near 113.63 levels (4 hrly Upper Bollinger) and Support is seen near 110.54 levels (4 hrly 21 days EMA). Short term: Maintain Bullishness.

Dollar Index: Dollar Index is trading at 74.85 levels. Concern of temporary government shutdown sent the greenback further lower. Break of 75.25 support confirmed medium term down trend resumption. Outlook will now remain bearish as long as 76.61 resistance holds and Strong support is seen at 74.60 levels (Trend Line Support). Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Bullish (Jun-July).