Daily Forex Technicals |
Written by Compass Global Markets |
Jan 29 13 03:03 GMT
FX Report: AUD/USD
The U.S. economy continues to show encouraging signs of recovery despite the uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling and budget negotiations. Overnight, U.S. Treasury yields traded at 2% for the first time since April last year as durable goods orders rose more than forecast. However, pending home sales in December fell for the first time since August. The Japanese Yen continues to trade in large ranges. After a year where many JPY traders were sub-jected to 15 point ranges, the currency has recorded comparably large daily swings in response to new Prime Min-ister Abe's “unlimited” easing stance. USDJPY is weaker today at 90.70.
Goldman Sachs has announced that it is looking to sell a $1 billion share in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest bank by market capitalisation as the stock's share price has rallied more than 50% from the low's of the previous year. Shares are being offered by the revered U.S. investment bank at approximately a 3% discount to the closing price last week. International banks have found it easier to make a return by investing in local Chinese banking operations rather than operating their own brands in the world's second largest economy.
U.S. share markets closed last week at their highest levels since December 2007. More than 75% of the companies that have reported quarterly earnings so far surpassed profit expectations. Caterpillar, the world's largest producer of construction and mining equipment, gained more than 1% after reporting a better profit outlook for 2013. Ap-ple shares gained 2% to recover slightly from the worst weekly performance of its shares since 2008. The last time the S&P 500 closed above 1,500 before this week was in 2007. The index is down 0.18% at 1,500.18. European stocks were mixed with the DAX losing 0.32% while the FTSE gained 0.16%
Commodity prices gained slightly overnight with the major commodity indexes rising about 0.25%. WTI crude gained to seven week highs on the better than expected durable goods orders in the US. WTI is higher by 0.6% at $96.40. Precious metals have eased with gold losing 0.14% to $1,655 while silver dropped 1% to $30.90. Agricul-tural commodities were mostly higher, led by gains in corn and sugar. Copper is higher by 0.25%.
AUD/USD continued the fall during the Australian holiday session as the market still looked to bailing out longs as the drive to the current level despite the links to the normal majors not looking to have any effect. Constant buying ahead of 1.0400 stalled the decline during the Asia session and it wasn’t until the European session where the extra drive came from too break the level but to be disappointed is an understatement with 1.0385 stopping the decline. Better than expected data and economic feel from profit reporting in the USA saw risk sentiment lift a little with AUD returning into the low 1.0400 to see out the Australian holiday Monday. CB Leading Index and NAB Business Confidence are the main points for the local session and with the market still hanging around the lows of the last couple of weeks a negative result could and should lead to another test of the downside support. Our expected range 1.0350/1.0430 over the next 24 hours.
- Short-Term: NEUTRAL
- Medium-Term: NEUTRAL
About the Author
Compass Global Markets Pty Ltd
FX research by Keagan York
Commodities research by Andrew Su
DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER
Compass Global Markets, ACN 144 657 885, Authorised Representative No. 377377, is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Calibre Investments Pty Ltd (Australian Financial Services License No. 337927). Please refer to the Financial Services Guide which is available through our website www.compassmarkets.com for more information regarding the financial services that we offer.
All references to prices, amounts and currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted.
This report is provided for Australian residents only and is not intended for use by residents of any other country.
GENERAL ADVICE WARNING: The advice provided in this report has been prepared without taking into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to these matters and, if appropriate, seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
This report has been prepared for the general use of Compass Global Markets clients and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. This report and its contents are not intended to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security, product or asset, or to engage in or refrain from en-gaging in any transaction.
Compass Global Markets does not guarantee the performance of any investment discussed or recommended in this report. This report and the information used within may include estimates and projections which constitute a forward looking statement that express an expectation or belief as to future events, results or returns. No guarantee of future events, results or returns is given or implied by Compass Global Markets. Such statements are made in good faith and based on reasonable assumptions at the time of publication. However, such statements are also subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ substantially from the estimates and projections contained in this report or otherwise provided by Compass Global Markets.
Any information referencing past performance is not indicative of future performance. All information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be accu-rate. Compass Global Markets does not give any representation or warranty as to reliability, accuracy or completeness of information contained in this report and therefore all responsibility is expressly disclaimed, whether due to negligence or otherwise. The information presented and opinions expressed in this report are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. We hereby disclaim any obligation to inform you of any changes after the date hereof in any matter set forth in this report.
Global Compass Markets, its affiliate and their employees may hold positions in the financial products, or securities or derivatives of, in the companies referred to in this report from time to time.
Analyst Certification: The views or opinions expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) and no part of the remuneration of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. Any views or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the views or opinions of Compass Global Markets unless specified otherwise.