GBP/USD Falls Back to Consolidation and Tests 1.57, Projected to 1.5590

After a counter-trend breakout signaling possible bullish continuation, the GBP/USD failed to reach the Feb. high near 1.5925. Instead, it topped off at 1.5878, and slid sharply in the 2/22 European session start. In the 4H chart, you can see this slide breaking below 61.8% retracement and pivot of 1.5733. It is now testing 1.57 with heavy price action.

With the RSI failing to reach 70 before falling back below 40, the momentum is clearly still that of consolidation. A fair question is whether we should expect to have an ABC correction with C is projected as with a C=A swing projection, OR will the consolidation become a congestion with the current wave failing to reach 1.5644 (lower high, higher low). The increase in the volatility and size of candles in B and C compared to A suggests against the congestion scenario, so the preferred one is a swing projection toward 1.5590. You can see some other fibonacci expansion targets 1.55 being near the 132.8% expansion and 1.5450 near the 150% expansion.