NZD/USD Breaks Above 0.83 and Consolidation Range

The NZD/USD has been trading sideways essentially for the entire month of March and into April, until 4/13 the Asian-European Session. The range had outside support at 0.8060 and resistance near 0.8290. The market has pushed above 0.83 entering the 4/13 US trading. Also note that with the breakout, the RSI finally pushes above 70, which is a near-term overbought signal, but a short to medium term bullish signal.

Price has bullish bias, unless there is a slide below 0.82, in which case we continue to be in consolidation, just with an expanded resistance level. The failed bullish continuation attempt could even suggest a stronger bearish outlook, but at least toward the 0.8060-0.8115 range support zone.

The daily chart shows that this break to the upside opens up previous highs near 0.8420. Note that the RSI has stayed above 40, reflecting maintenance of the bullish momentum established by the late 2011-early 2012 rally. Now the RSI is attacking 60. A push above 60 in the daily RSI reading suggests a return of stronger bullish bias. Also note that the market respected the 200-day SMA as support, another sign of bullish bias holding.

If the market pushes above 0.8420, the 0.8560 resistance pivot from August 2011 opens up.