USD/CAD Eyes Parity

4H: The USD/CAD attemped to rally but was quickly subdued in the last session. Looking at the 4H time-frame, we see that the signal was spotted prematurely, and the same candle that would have broken above the declining resistance, actually closed back within the channel.

The market instead continued to however above 1.02 until the European session got underway.

We see in the 4H time-frame a near-term projection to 1.01. This is a conservative patterns breakout projection, but considering the overall bearish mode, let’s see what other targets are viable.

Daily and Weekly: The daily chart shows the continuation of a swing past 100% projection of the previous. If this is a butterfly, it is extending the second retracement leg.

Fibonacci projection shows that just above the parity level, there is a confluence of the 161.8% projection of the previous leg, and 138.2% extended retracement of the previous 1.02-to-1.0750 rally.

The weekly shows that the 78.6% retracement level is just below the parity level. If the market breaks below 0.99, it may continue declining until it tests the major low at 0.91. It is still a bit premature, but a confirmation would be a failed bullish attempt after a rebound from the parity level.

Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
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All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.