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Long Term Forecast Reports

It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.



AUD/USD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 02 14 02:25 GMT
The Australian dollar is known for its strong volatility, and taking traders on roller coaster rides, and the currency certainly didn't disappoint in 2013. The Aussie started the year close to the 1.04 level and looked great in early January, climbing just short of the 1.06 line. The currency lost about five cents over November-December, almost mirroring the gains made from September-October. The Australian dollar dropped to a low of 86.56 in December. AUD/USD closed the year at 0.8904, culminating a very disappointing year for the pair.
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USD/CAD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 02 14 02:23 GMT
The Canadian dollar looked sharp as we began 2013, but struggled badly late in the year, as the currency lost about five cents against the US dollar in Q4. The Canadian currency began the year close to the parity level, but tumbled to three-year lows in December, as USD/CAD broke above the 1.07 level. The pair ended a disappointing year above the 1.06 line.
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USD/JPY - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 26 13 02:31 GMT
The Bank of Japan continued its radical monetary program in 2013, and the yen responded with sharp losses against the US dollar, as the slumping Japanese currency finds itself trading at five-year lows. The BOJ's monetary platform consists of increasing its monetary base and asset purchase (QE) programs. The BOJ said it will continue to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen annually and the purchase of Japanese government bonds by 50 trillion each year. The Bank's aggressive monetary policy has revived the economy and put the breaks on deflation, which had resulted in a stagnated economy for 15 years. At the same time, inflation in 2013 is expected at around 1%, well below the BOJ's target of 2%. GDP is looking much better, with a robust gain of 2.9% anticipated for 2013.
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GBP/USD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 26 13 02:30 GMT
The Bank of England revised its growth forecast for 2013 to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in a previous forecast. The BOE is predicting growth in 2014 of 2.8%. Inflation remains well above the central bank's target of 2%. The forecast for 2013 is a level of 2.6%. This is expected to drop to 2.2% in 2014. With the British economy picking up steam in the latter half of 2013, there has been pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates. However, Carney has stated on numerous occasions that there is plenty of slack in the economy and the BOE will only consider reducing rates when unemployment falls below the 7.0% level. The unemployment rate has not dropped very much this year, from 7.8% in January to 7.6% in December. The BOE has said it doesn't expect the 7% level to be reached before 2015, but the markets feel that that this could happen as early as next year, especially with strong growth forecasts for next year. If the UK economy continues to improve in 2014, the BOE will come under increasing pressure to raise interest rates.
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EUR/USD - 2013 in Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 25 13 13:46 GMT
The ECB is expecting better news in 2014, with the Eurozone economy expected to post growth of 1%. Inflation is projected to remain week, with an estimate of 1.3%. So we can expect interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future, as ECB head Mario Draghi has stated at many of his press conferences. What monetary steps can we expect from the ECB? The central bank could again lower its benchmark rate (perhaps less than a 0.25% cut, which would bring rates to zero). It could also opt to lower deposit rates into negative territory. However, the ECB has never taken this step before and appears to be reluctant to do so, as such a move could have unintended negative consequences.
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Global Currencies Forecast: 2014 Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 10 13 12:21 GMT
More than five years after the onset of the Great Recession, consistent global growth remains elusive, prompting central banks to stick with artificially low interest rates while pumping an unprecedented infusion of cash into the financial system. As they search for new ways to stimulate liquidity to augment the stimulus measures they've enacted, central bank policymakers must also fight deflation, and as expected, these are the themes that will continue to dominate the European Central Bank's (ECB) train of thought as it has at the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Many foreign exchange (forex) participants and analysts are anticipating fiscal policy to be less of an impediment to U.S. growth in 2014. If so, it should allow the Federal Reserve to carefully navigate away from making asset purchases and reduce its massive $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program.
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The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part III: An Analysis of Federal Deficits and Debt in the Long-Run Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Oct 26 13 03:25 GMT
In part three of our four part series we explore the long-run trends in federal debt and the annual budget deficits that lead to the accumulation of federal debt through the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) current forecast horizon of 2088. We begin with a brief history of federal deficits and the debt and explore the origins of the current budget deficit and the national debt. We then turn to CBO projections of federal deficits over the next several years and the projected debt as a share of GDP. Finally we explore the potential negative fiscal and economic effects, as described by CBO, of the rising federal debt.
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The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part II: An Analysis of Federal Spending Projections Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Oct 10 13 15:08 GMT
In its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook, the Congressional Budget Office concludes that the future path of federal spending is "unsustainable." In part two of our four-part series on the unsustainable path of federal fiscal policy, we explore the ongoing trends in federal spending and focus on the key drivers of spending growth and the tough choices the nation faces in the coming years. We conclude with a brief recap of how the Budget Control Act of 2011 and the subsequent budget sequestration process affects the long-term trend in federal spending. Entitlement programs are expected to push federal outlays as a percentage of the economy to levels not seen since World War II. The result would be large and continually growing budget deficits over the next several years that would have the potential to put at risk the pace of future economic growth.
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The Unsustainable Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part I: Federal Revenue Projections and Economic Assumptions Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Oct 08 13 04:38 GMT
Recently, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook, which this year again highlights the fact that federal fiscal policy continues along an unsustainable path. In this first of a series of reports on the unsustainable path of federal fiscal policy, we provide an analysis and discussion of the economic assumptions from the Congressional Budget Office and how these assumptions compare to our long-run economic assumptions. Finally, we discuss the revenue projections from the CBO report and the potential upside and downside risks to federal revenue growth in the long term.
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Life After Ben: Choosing the Next Fed Chair Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Aug 28 13 16:08 GMT
The biggest question on monetary policy for the years ahead is, who will be the next Federal Reserve chairman? More importantly, who is best qualified to normalize policy without disrupting the current pace of economic growth and financial stability? The clear choice is Chairman Ben Bernanke, who nursed an ailing economy and financial market back to health by using unprecedented unconventional monetary policy. However, while it has not been explicitly stated, it is widely thought that Bernanke's second term as chairman will be his last (his term as Board member will not expire until 2020). How do we know this? Well, the chairman has done almost everything to point us in that direction besides spelling it out.
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