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Long Term Forecast Reports

It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.



WTI Crude Oil A Year Ahead - Trends And Expectations 2016 Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 24 15 11:45 GMT
The second half of 2014 saw a sharp drop in the price of WTI Crude Oil, which had traded at $105 a barrel in July. By January 1, 2015, the price of crude had fallen by almost 50%, to $54.45 a barrel. Oil prices rebounded in April, reaching a high of $62. However, this rise was short-lived, as crude dropped sharply in July and dropped below $38 in August. Oil prices hovered close to $45 in September and October, but have since weakened. Currently, crude oil is trading at $37.32, the yearly low, and could easily set new lows for 2015 before the end of December.
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DAX Year Ahead – Trends And Expectations 2016 Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 24 15 11:11 GMT
It has been another testing year for the German economy but once again it has shown the kind of strong resilience that it has become synonymous with throughout the global financial and eurozone debt crises. The first half of the year in the eurozone was dominated by questions over whether Greece could remain within the eurozone, something that once again called into question the apparent irreversibility of the euro project.
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British Pound Year Ahead - Brexit To Dominate 2016 Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 22 15 12:49 GMT
This has been something of a turnaround year for the UK in which unemployment has fallen back to pre-financial crisis levels, wage growth has accelerated and falling energy and food prices have supported a strong consumer driven recovery. Growth has cooled a little in 2015 after peaking at 3.2% in the middle of 2014 but this was to be expected against the backdrop of slowing global growth, a sluggish recovery in the euro area - the UK's largest export market - and a strong pound which created big challenges for UK manufacturers.
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Gold for Bear Market? Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Merk Hard Currency Fund | Oct 13 15 13:23 GMT
A "bear market" is frequently defined as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 index. Trouble is that by the time pundits provide their seal of approval that we are indeed in a bear market, the index has already lost 20% from its peak. Many of them will likely have told investors to buy the dips all the way down.
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Euro Area Outlook for 2015: Impact of Broad-Based QE Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Danske Bank | Jan 17 15 03:46 GMT
The expected ECB QE programme will support economic activity through a number of channels and hence it strengthens our view of a stronger recovery. A very important part of a large scale QE programme would be the signal that the ECB is committed to its mandate as this supports inflation expectations. Government bond markets will be affected by the direct purchase effect and the 'hot potato effect', which drives investors out on the curve and into riskier assets. Around 28% of the EGB market is currently yielding negative.
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When Will the Bank of England Hike Rates? Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Aug 16 14 08:33 GMT
In the first report of a two-part series on the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy, we discuss the timing of the expected first rate hike since 2007. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has explicitly pledged not to hike rates until spare capacity is more fully absorbed. Not only is spare capacity not observable, however, but it can also conceivably vary over time. Therefore, we think that market participants should watch wage growth closely in coming months when attempting to discern the timing of the first rate hike. With average weekly earnings more or less flat on a year-ago basis, we do not think wages will accelerate so much as to prompt a rate hike this year.
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Growth in China Appears to Be Stabilizing Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Jul 19 14 08:05 GMT
The year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in China edged up to 7.5 percent in Q2 from 7.4 percent in Q1. Modest relaxation in credit restrictions in recent months led to some stabilization in investment spending growth. We look for the rate of real GDP growth in China to edge lower in coming quarters. Although Chinese authorities may relax policy at the margin to allow some fine-tuning of the economy, they are not about to embark on a wholesale easing of policy that would delay the necessary rebalancing of the economy away from its heavy reliance on investment.
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FX Forecast Update: Negative Rates and Liquidity Tools to Weaken the Euro Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 14 14 03:24 GMT
The ECB delivered more easing than expected at its rate meeting in June by cutting both the refi and deposit rates by 10bp, the latter into negative territory, and introduced a four-year targeted LTRO (TLTRO). While it remains uncertain how much excess liquidity will be boosted by the new LTRO, we expect the combination of a negative deposit rate in addition to the various liquidity measures to be overall euro negative and in general we have penciled in a bit more euro weakness in our forecast.
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AUD/USD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 02 14 02:25 GMT
The Australian dollar is known for its strong volatility, and taking traders on roller coaster rides, and the currency certainly didn't disappoint in 2013. The Aussie started the year close to the 1.04 level and looked great in early January, climbing just short of the 1.06 line. The currency lost about five cents over November-December, almost mirroring the gains made from September-October. The Australian dollar dropped to a low of 86.56 in December. AUD/USD closed the year at 0.8904, culminating a very disappointing year for the pair.
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USD/CAD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 02 14 02:23 GMT
The Canadian dollar looked sharp as we began 2013, but struggled badly late in the year, as the currency lost about five cents against the US dollar in Q4. The Canadian currency began the year close to the parity level, but tumbled to three-year lows in December, as USD/CAD broke above the 1.07 level. The pair ended a disappointing year above the 1.06 line.
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