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It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Apr 29 13 15:48 GMT
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Recently released data show that real GDP in the United Kingdom grew 0.3 percent (1.2 percent at an annualized rate) in Q1-2013 relative to the previous quarter, which was not as weak as some analysts had expected. The positive outturn means that the British economy has avoided a "tripledip" recession, at least for now, and it undoubtedly comes as a relief to officials who reside on Downing Street.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Apr 13 13 04:00 GMT
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This report focuses on Japan and considers the domestic implications of the bold fiscal and monetary policy initiatives and economic incentives that swept the newly installed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe into office in December as well as the unprecedented monetary policy easing program being implemented by his hand-picked leader for the Bank of Japan, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. I recently returned from a trip to Asia and my findings here are based not only on discussions with public and private sector economists in Japan, but also with economists, foreign finance ministries and central banks in six neighboring economies. This includes regional economic rivals like China and Korea as well as economies where domestic prospects are tightly linked to the outlook for Japan, such as Thailand, which have become important manufacturing bases for many Japanese companies in recent years.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Mar 19 13 16:25 GMT
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The global economy grew by an estimated 2.9% in 2012. The euro zone double dip recession, a softer Chinese showing, and sub-par numbers in North America weighed on overall growth prospects.
Improved performances across most emerging economies should lead to a better showing: 3.1% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014. The latter pace reflects a more balanced global recovery with greater contribution from advanced economies.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Dec 05 12 14:55 GMT
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For the fourth time, we present our year-end FX Top Trades for the coming year. In the years 2010-2012, our FX top trades delivered an average return of 3.1%, with a hit ratio of 80% each year.
As in previous years, this year's trade ideas are based on a number of global themes that we believe will dominate the FX market in 2013. We assume that we will: i) see a modest global recovery, ii) that monetary easing will continue, iii) that the current low volatility environment is here to stay, iv) that we will see fewer tail risks, v) that value is to be found in EMEA and finally that vi) macro-prudential polices will be a new important theme to follow in the FX Market. In the table below, we have listed the 10 trade recommendations and have plotted them against the different themes.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Nov 27 12 11:51 GMT
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Chancellor Osborne announced today that Mark Carney, currently the Governor of the Bank of Canada, would become the next Governor of the Bank of England on July 1, 2013. While Carney was rumoured to be a candidate, the announcement was nevertheless a surprise to the market, as Carney had previously stated publically that he would complete his term at the BoC which was set to expire in February 2015. Other organizational changes within the BoE will see Deputy Governor Bean remain in his current position through June 2014 to assist with the transition. Governor Carney will remain at the helm of the Bank of Canada until the end of next June during the recruitment process. We see the current Senior Deputy Governor Macklem as the presumptive candidate to assume the role of Governor, and don't expect Governor Carney to make any radical changes to current Bank of England policy when he arrives.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Nov 20 12 08:51 GMT
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Fiscal policy became topic number one post-election. The impending fiscal cliff has started a firestorm of speculation about the future path of federal spending and tax policy. This report sheds light on how our economic forecasts would be impacted under various scenarios of tax and spending policies. We begin with a quick summary of the options facing Congress and the president over the next few months as they work to resolve the fiscal cliff. We then present our forecast comparison should we go over the fiscal cliff and finally conclude with initial estimates on our forecast of various policy changes that could be implemented as part of a solution to the fiscal cliff.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Nov 08 12 15:43 GMT
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Financial markets are navigating their way through a myriad of political risks. The U.S. election produced a status quo result, President Obama was returned to office and Congress remains divided. The knee-jerk market reaction was a rally in fixed-income markets and a sell-off in equities. Although an Obama victory had been largely priced into markets before the voting results were known, the response shows an immediate and renewed focus on the approaching fiscal cliff - the legislated expiration of tax cuts and slated spending cuts that threaten to push the U.S. economy back into recession. The main concern is that the unchanged outcome of the election raises the possibility of continued gridlock.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Oct 15 12 14:07 GMT
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This month we have made very few changes. We have decided to keep our EUR/USD forecast profile unchanged at 1.35 (3M), 1.35 (6M) and 1.30 (12M). We continue to expect the Fed to be successful in changing market expectations and expect investors to continue to add USD-funded carry positions on the currency market. This should trigger further USD weakness and not least against the strongest high yielders. It would be naive, however, not to expect bumps on the way. Surely there will come periods of rising euro concerns and it also remains premature to dismiss further ECB easing. A deposit rate cut would clearly be euro negative but when evaluating the risks to EUR/USD from relative monetary policy it should be clear that it will be near impossible for the ECB to match the open-ended commitment made by the Fed.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Oct 12 12 15:17 GMT
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There is a big divergence between hard and soft data in the euro area at the moment. Although not clear cut, it does suggest that soft data - such as euro PMI - may be too downbeat and could surprise on the upside in coming months.
Euro industrial production was released today and showed surprising strength, rising 0.6% m/m for the second time in a row. This is much stronger than indicated by soft data such as PMI, ZEW, EU sentiment etc.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Oct 12 12 12:08 GMT
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Whoever is in the White House after November 6th, putting the U.S. budget on a sustainable footing will still require some degree of bi-partisan support. Even if Republicans take the Presidency and both Houses of Congress, Democrats have leverage over taxes and the ability to filibuster indefinitely proposals they do not agree with. Whether Democrat or Republican, working with Congress will be the biggest challenge facing the next American President. The task is large, but so to is the payoff. Achieving consensus on a prudent fiscal plan would go a long way to boost confidence, improving the prospects for economic growth on both sides of the 49th parallel.
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