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Long Term Forecast Reports

It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.



When Will the Bank of England Hike Rates? Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Aug 16 14 08:33 GMT
In the first report of a two-part series on the outlook for Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy, we discuss the timing of the expected first rate hike since 2007. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has explicitly pledged not to hike rates until spare capacity is more fully absorbed. Not only is spare capacity not observable, however, but it can also conceivably vary over time. Therefore, we think that market participants should watch wage growth closely in coming months when attempting to discern the timing of the first rate hike. With average weekly earnings more or less flat on a year-ago basis, we do not think wages will accelerate so much as to prompt a rate hike this year.
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Growth in China Appears to Be Stabilizing Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Jul 19 14 08:05 GMT
The year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in China edged up to 7.5 percent in Q2 from 7.4 percent in Q1. Modest relaxation in credit restrictions in recent months led to some stabilization in investment spending growth. We look for the rate of real GDP growth in China to edge lower in coming quarters. Although Chinese authorities may relax policy at the margin to allow some fine-tuning of the economy, they are not about to embark on a wholesale easing of policy that would delay the necessary rebalancing of the economy away from its heavy reliance on investment.
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FX Forecast Update: Negative Rates and Liquidity Tools to Weaken the Euro Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 14 14 03:24 GMT
The ECB delivered more easing than expected at its rate meeting in June by cutting both the refi and deposit rates by 10bp, the latter into negative territory, and introduced a four-year targeted LTRO (TLTRO). While it remains uncertain how much excess liquidity will be boosted by the new LTRO, we expect the combination of a negative deposit rate in addition to the various liquidity measures to be overall euro negative and in general we have penciled in a bit more euro weakness in our forecast.
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AUD/USD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 02 14 02:25 GMT
The Australian dollar is known for its strong volatility, and taking traders on roller coaster rides, and the currency certainly didn't disappoint in 2013. The Aussie started the year close to the 1.04 level and looked great in early January, climbing just short of the 1.06 line. The currency lost about five cents over November-December, almost mirroring the gains made from September-October. The Australian dollar dropped to a low of 86.56 in December. AUD/USD closed the year at 0.8904, culminating a very disappointing year for the pair.
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USD/CAD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 02 14 02:23 GMT
The Canadian dollar looked sharp as we began 2013, but struggled badly late in the year, as the currency lost about five cents against the US dollar in Q4. The Canadian currency began the year close to the parity level, but tumbled to three-year lows in December, as USD/CAD broke above the 1.07 level. The pair ended a disappointing year above the 1.06 line.
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USD/JPY - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 26 13 02:31 GMT
The Bank of Japan continued its radical monetary program in 2013, and the yen responded with sharp losses against the US dollar, as the slumping Japanese currency finds itself trading at five-year lows. The BOJ's monetary platform consists of increasing its monetary base and asset purchase (QE) programs. The BOJ said it will continue to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen annually and the purchase of Japanese government bonds by 50 trillion each year. The Bank's aggressive monetary policy has revived the economy and put the breaks on deflation, which had resulted in a stagnated economy for 15 years. At the same time, inflation in 2013 is expected at around 1%, well below the BOJ's target of 2%. GDP is looking much better, with a robust gain of 2.9% anticipated for 2013.
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GBP/USD - 2013 In Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 26 13 02:30 GMT
The Bank of England revised its growth forecast for 2013 to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in a previous forecast. The BOE is predicting growth in 2014 of 2.8%. Inflation remains well above the central bank's target of 2%. The forecast for 2013 is a level of 2.6%. This is expected to drop to 2.2% in 2014. With the British economy picking up steam in the latter half of 2013, there has been pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates. However, Carney has stated on numerous occasions that there is plenty of slack in the economy and the BOE will only consider reducing rates when unemployment falls below the 7.0% level. The unemployment rate has not dropped very much this year, from 7.8% in January to 7.6% in December. The BOE has said it doesn't expect the 7% level to be reached before 2015, but the markets feel that that this could happen as early as next year, especially with strong growth forecasts for next year. If the UK economy continues to improve in 2014, the BOE will come under increasing pressure to raise interest rates.
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EUR/USD - 2013 in Review Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 25 13 13:46 GMT
The ECB is expecting better news in 2014, with the Eurozone economy expected to post growth of 1%. Inflation is projected to remain week, with an estimate of 1.3%. So we can expect interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future, as ECB head Mario Draghi has stated at many of his press conferences. What monetary steps can we expect from the ECB? The central bank could again lower its benchmark rate (perhaps less than a 0.25% cut, which would bring rates to zero). It could also opt to lower deposit rates into negative territory. However, the ECB has never taken this step before and appears to be reluctant to do so, as such a move could have unintended negative consequences.
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Global Currencies Forecast: 2014 Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 10 13 12:21 GMT
More than five years after the onset of the Great Recession, consistent global growth remains elusive, prompting central banks to stick with artificially low interest rates while pumping an unprecedented infusion of cash into the financial system. As they search for new ways to stimulate liquidity to augment the stimulus measures they've enacted, central bank policymakers must also fight deflation, and as expected, these are the themes that will continue to dominate the European Central Bank's (ECB) train of thought as it has at the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Many foreign exchange (forex) participants and analysts are anticipating fiscal policy to be less of an impediment to U.S. growth in 2014. If so, it should allow the Federal Reserve to carefully navigate away from making asset purchases and reduce its massive $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program.
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The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy Part III: An Analysis of Federal Deficits and Debt in the Long-Run Print E-mail
Long Term Forecasts | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Oct 26 13 03:25 GMT
In part three of our four part series we explore the long-run trends in federal debt and the annual budget deficits that lead to the accumulation of federal debt through the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) current forecast horizon of 2088. We begin with a brief history of federal deficits and the debt and explore the origins of the current budget deficit and the national debt. We then turn to CBO projections of federal deficits over the next several years and the projected debt as a share of GDP. Finally we explore the potential negative fiscal and economic effects, as described by CBO, of the rising federal debt.
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