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Long Term Forecast Reports
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It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Dec 15 11 17:00 GMT
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Our currency markets continue to be racked by volatility, driven by uncertainty in Europe and tepid attempts at a rebounding economic recovery on a global scale. For countries like Japan that have had both weak fundamentals and a major natural disaster on its plate, a strong national currency is no recipe for recovery. The Yen, however, much like the Swiss Franc, has continued to be the safe haven of choice, buffeted by the repetitious waves of risk aversion that sweep through the investment community at large. Despite central bank intervention, the Yen remains range bound.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Dec 14 11 17:35 GMT
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In our outlook for 2011 we highlighted that the level of uncertainty going forward was unusually high. If anything, in retrospect, this proved to be something of an understatement. Our stance was broadly a positive one for fixed income, a better USD story and for equities to look somewhat at risk. Set against the actual outturn for 2011, this was a reasonable set of calls and in particular, our long core short peripheral bias was the star performer. Certainly, when one examines the year on year moves, it is the long end of fixed income curves that has seen the most dramatic change, with currencies close to unmoved and likewise equity indices barely changed in the developed market space. In the commodity space, Gold was the clear winner while the CRB is down marginally on the year.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Dec 14 11 11:23 GMT
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For the third time we present our FX Top Trades for the coming year. In 2010 and 2011 our top trades delivered an average return of 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively, with a hit ratio of 80 %. Like the last two years the trade ideas are based on a number of global themes. In 2012, we assume that: i) recession fears are excessive, ii) that global monetary easing will continue; iii) the EMU crises will continue, but the euro will not break-up; iv) that volatility will stay high, v) the dollar will face a structural headwind; 6) and that we will see continued FX interventions. In the table below, we have listed the 10 trade recommendations and have plotted them against the different themes.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Dec 13 11 01:12 GMT
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Despite the challenges of the past few years, economic growth in Australia has been remarkably immune to the economic weakness that has characterized the recoveries across the rest of the developed world. In fact, Australia can claim the title of the strongest developed economy in the world over the past six years or so, as measured by GDP growth
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Dec 07 11 19:00 GMT
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Despite many challenges, we believe U.S. and global economic growth is poised to continue over the course of next year. However, businesses will need to remain cognizant of the evolving economic and policy landscape that will prove to be a game changer in 2012.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Merk Hard Currency Fund |
Nov 30 11 11:47 GMT
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Can the euro be saved? Is it possible to stem the flight of money from the periphery into the core? With a botched German auction in mind, investors are now wondering whether it's possible to prevent a flight out of “all things euro”? We examine the dual challenges of fiscal sustainability and bank solvency in this analysis, with the not-so-modest title “Guide to Save the Euro”
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Nov 22 11 16:58 GMT
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Unfortunately for investors, Europe remains the bad news that won't go away. Since our last issue of Dollars & Sense where we outlined the euro zone's latest “plan” to help address the sovereign debt crisis, contagion has only worsened, with Italian yields breaching the critical 7% level last week (see Chart 1). To top it off the world's other fiscal crisis - the U.S. super committee's deficit reduction plan - has missed the “deadline” for reaching an agreement, further weighing on market sentiment. This one-two punch has knocked the wind out of market sentiment lately, and has kept volatility elevated.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Nov 15 11 10:24 GMT
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Key proposals following the eagerly awaited EU summit helped to push €/$ briefly through 1.42, from 1.32 at the start of October, but the rally was short-lived. Political tensions reached fever-pitch as Greek PM Papandreou unexpectedly called for a referendum on the bailout package. After heightened concerns and renewed volatility, reflecting the potential implications of the referendum, Mr Papandreou withdrew the proposal and later stepped down from office to allow for a new unity government led by Lucas Papademos to be formed. However, market worries switched to Italy as its borrowing costs came under strong upward pressure, pushing 10yr yields briefly above 7%. This eventually told on PM Berlusconi who stepped down to allow a new technocratic government to be formed led by Mario Monti. However, while Italian yields have fallen, the focus has turned to Spain (6%) and France (3.4%). Increased signs of weakening growth saw the ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates to 1.25% in November.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Nov 11 11 12:11 GMT
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USD slightly better supported as scope for higher yields elsewhere has diminished. EUR downside risks now look less substantial as political tensions have eased in periphery, but upside risks also diminishing as economic weakness sets in
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Nov 09 11 12:33 GMT
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The global economy is increasingly decoupling. It seems more and more evident that the euro area cannot escape recession, as leading indicators point to a fall in GDP in Q4 followed by a small decline in Q1. This is in sharp contrast to the US and China where growth is expected to improve. The US has already seen its growth rate rise to 2.5% in Q3 and indicators support a further increase to 2.8% in Q4. In China, we are starting to see the first indications of a growth bottom following the weak first three quarters and we do indeed expect a decent growth increase in Q4 and Q1 as we expect inflation to fall sharply.
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