|
It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Oct 11 11 09:59 GMT
|
|
Since our last quarterly outlook called 'Maximum Uncertainty' the world has moved from bad to worse. Growth prospects have soured and governments and central banks are everywhere pulling out the stops to save the system once again. In Europe, renewed efforts to save the European Union from its debt crisis are foundering as EU politics have reached an all-time low in solidarity and an all-time high in playing to more domestic national agendas.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Oct 11 11 09:56 GMT
|
|
Though the world economy will see robust growth of 3.8 percent this year this figure papers over a chasm between developed and emerging countries. While the developed economies led by the heavyweights (U.S. and Eurozone) are struggling to cope with the drag from deleveraging, emerging markets have hiked rates as inflationary pressures have mounted due to strong domestic demand. Domestic demand in emerging countries remains strong and should offset weakening foreign demand from developed economies.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Oct 11 11 09:54 GMT
|
|
Waiting for a US dollar rally this year has felt like Waiting for Godot at times as we anticipated one for a long time before the greenback finally rallied sharply in late August and early September after a long period of stagnation over the summer, despite a number of market developments that have normally proven positive for the currency in the past. Those included falling equity markets, rising signs of worry in other risk indicators and in global growth concerns, particularly in Asia and emerging markets.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Oct 11 11 09:50 GMT
|
|
As we had previously suggested was possible at its 20/21 September meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would indulge in a so-called 'Twist' operation-selling $400 bn of its holdings of under 3-year Treasuries and buying $400bn of 6-30 year maturities in an attempt to lower long-term yields - given their direct correlation with mortgage rates and also the discount rates used by commercial enterprises to evaluate the viability of long-term business ventures.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Oct 11 11 09:47 GMT
|
|
In the run up to the 2008 global financial crisis, China's manufacturing sector was epitomised by a predominant focus on exports resulting in a constantly rising trade surplus and a hefty accumulation of FX reserves. In the aftermath of the crisis however, the situation has dramatically changed, partly due to a lack of external demand but also amid rising concerns that China appears to be losing its global competitive edge.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Merk Hard Currency Fund |
Sep 21 11 14:19 GMT
|
|
In 2008, the global financial system faced a potential meltdown when funding seized up for investment banks, ultimately leading to the failure of Lehmann Brothers. Three years on, we have got plenty of problems, but – as we shall argue - investors may want to differentiate between a financial meltdown and insolvency. While complaining about policy makers and bankers may generate animated water cooler discussions, let's take their human (and fallible) nature as a given, and discuss implications for investors. In this context, we assess the U.S. dollar, currencies and equities.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Sep 13 11 09:57 GMT
|
|
In January, we published Research Euroland: Debt crisis scenarios, 25 January 2011. The document contained three debt crisis scenarios. Nine months have passed and the debt crisis is even more intense now than it was then. We therefore find it appropriate to give an update on our view on the future of the euro area. The three possible scenarios outlined in January were as follows.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Sep 05 11 12:45 GMT
|
|
Since the end of July equity prices have been hit hard, as confidence in western leaders' ability to tackle imminent debt issues has plummeted. The S&P500 shed 16% in a little over two weeks. In this paper, we examine how such a fall feeds into GDP growth and thereby whether the recent decline poses a long-term threat to the real economy.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Aug 15 11 20:01 GMT
|
|
The cyclical outlook has changed significantly over the summer and with it also the central bank outlook. The Fed now predicts near zero percent interest rates until at least mid-2013 and we expect it to be right in this prediction. Also, in the eurozone further hikes have been cancelled, as economic data has deteriorated and pressure on the European bond market has intensified - with a temporary drop in EUR/CHF towards parity as the most visible implication.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Aug 12 11 09:35 GMT
|
|
The financial crisis triggered a rising path for the US gross debt as it increased from around 60% in 2007 to around 100% in 2011. Despite the rapid pace of the rising debt, the current level is relatively modest compared with other major OECD countries. However, the future path for the debt seems a bit more concerning, and based on the recent fiscal consolidation plan S&P have downgraded the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, as they do not find the plan ambitious enough.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>
|
|
Page 3 of 38 |
