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It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Jul 26 11 07:35 GMT
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In the first of two special reports on the European sovereign debt crisis, we analyze the second bailout package for Greece that leaders of the European Union (EU) recently announced. Our calculations show that the package should stabilize the government's debt-to-GDP ratio at approximately 160 percent over the next few years. However, the calculations are sensitive to assumptions about nominal GDP growth and the government's primary budget surplus. If the Greek economy should stagnate at fairly slow rates of nominal GDP growth or if the government is unable to incur large primary surpluses for an extended period of time, the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise further. In our view, it would be premature to state that Greece is "out of the woods." In a soon-to-be-released second report, we will analyze debt sustainability in some other highly indebted European countries.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jun 28 11 11:29 GMT
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In the last Saxo Bank Quarterly Outlook, for Q2 2011, we came to the conclusion that U.S. Monetary Policy rates would remain on hold at least until the end of 2011 and very possibly until 2013. At the time, this was by no means the consensus view; the economy seemed to be in the midst of a moderately strong recovery, unemployment had declined for several months in a row, falling to 8.8 percent in March, down from 9.8 percent in November 2010, and even core inflation had struggled up to 1.1 percent from its low of 0.6 percent in the previous October.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
May 25 11 20:44 GMT
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With no further ado, the charts below are of each G-10 currency versus an evenly weighted basket of the nine remaining G-10 peers. Each chart is indexed to 100 at 2500 trading days before the present trading day, which is about nine and half years ago. For more on our latest longer term forecasts, please also have a look at our latest FX Monthly for May. Note that data for all charts has been compiled using a Bloomberg data feed.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 13 11 16:22 GMT
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The euro has been the worst-performing G10 currency over the past month as European sovereign debt concerns have resurfaced as a market theme. Also, the massive correction on commodity markets, the fact that money-market pricing of the ECB proved too aggressive and stretched long euro positioning ahead of the ECB meeting have added to the selling pressure on the euro.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
May 09 11 20:08 GMT
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It has been difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff in the economic data. Rising energy prices, supply chain interruptions in the auto sector, and weather-related slowdowns have affected readings on both inflation and output. Financial markets have taken these gyrations in stride with global stock markets generally maintaining recent gains and international bond markets rallying. Central bankers are wading through the data, and while there have been changes to near-term forecasts, the overall tenor of the outlook for this year and next remains the same. The global economy is weathering the recent bumps with trade volumes growing and manufacturing activity continuing to expand although the service-sector PMI showed signs of some moderation in growth after several months of running at an above-average pace.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
May 09 11 19:58 GMT
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The past month has seen significant volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate. The euro trended higher against the USD for much of the period since our last Outlook. But since the ECB's Governing Council meeting on 5 May, it has fallen sharply in response to Jean-Claude Trichet's failure to mention 'strong vigilance' on inflation risks - a phrase which had been expected by markets. Euribor futures contracts are no longer fully pricing in a 2% ECB refinancing rate for the end of this year. The UK has witnessed an even sharper unwinding of market interest rate expectations. Around a month ago, a 25bp increase in Bank Rate was fully priced in for May - but disappointing economic data mean that policy tightening has now been pushed back into late this year.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Apr 21 11 16:06 GMT
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It becomes easy to see how one event could become a trigger for others. And, at this juncture, it is difficult to assess the final impact of Greek debt restructuring and the final reach of the chain of events, particularly because it is as yet unknown how the restructuring will be shaped. Imposing a 50%-haircut upfront will carry much more severe consequences than an initial 10% cut with an extension on the maturity date; even if investors anticipate a second restructuring to impose larger haircuts would take place later on. Sovereign defaults that have taken place in recent years have caused the average investor loss to range from 25% to 35%. The lowest loss corresponded to Uruguay in 2003 with an estimated 13% haircut, and the highest to Argentina's 2005 debt restructuring at 74%.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 15 11 15:13 GMT
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The dominating theme on the currency market remains relative monetary policy - with the most visible implication being the depreciation of the dollar and not least against the euro. However, the clear trends seen over recent quarters are at risk of coming across bumps in the road. We look at three themes that are likely to affect the currency market: the expected decline in global PMIs, the heightened risks to global growth from rising commodity prices, and the possibility of peaks in relative rates for several key G10 currency pairs.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Apr 06 11 12:34 GMT
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The rest of this year should see large swings in currencies, with each of the three super-major currencies facing huge challenges in the coming quarter. Namely, in the US: how will the Federal Reserve deal with the anticipation of the phase-out of QE2 and will it provide hints of QE3+? In Europe: will Europe maintain its resolve to bailout the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and will the PIGS show signs of rejecting the bailout in favour of a clean slate?
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Mar 28 11 15:16 GMT
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Last week's European Council meeting had generated expectations for a strong response from European governments to the debt crisis. • Although progress was made on a number of areas such as the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), key aspects for the short-term evolution of the crisis were unaddressed • Particularly relevant is the lack of agreement on how the EFSF lending capacity will be boosted to €440 billion • Political upheaval in Portugal and continued severe funding challenges for Irish banks will be the driving risk factors in the coming months, until details on the EFSF and ESM are finalized in June
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