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It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Jun 15 10 09:47 GMT
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Financial markets continued to gyrate wildly in the past month. That said, the package of support measures from European governments has helped to calm fears of imminent default in the so-called peripheral countries in the euro zone, like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Nevertheless, a brief look at credit spreads, interbank rates and bond spreads over the past month suggests that these fears have not completely subsided.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jun 11 10 08:11 GMT
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The recent bout of risk aversion has seen USDCAD challenge the structural resistance around 1.0750-1.08 on a two occasions recently, first as a complacent market was caught way too short when the Flash Crash struck in early May, and then with the follow up bout of risk aversion that took equities to new lows for the year. Versus the G-10 broadly speaking, however, the loonie has posted a new all-time high this month, mostly perhaps because the negative sentiment is focused most intensely on Europe, and four of the G-10 currencies are traded most frequently versus the tumbling single currency of the last couple of months, while Canada's fate is deemed more closely linked to the fate of the US.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Jun 09 10 14:45 GMT
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Our forecast continues to incorporate a significant slowdown during the second half of the year. After likely expanding at a 3.4 percent pace during the current quarter, real GDP is expected to slow to a mere 2 percent pace during the second half of 2010. Conditions over the past month have reinforced our view. Indeed, the financial markets are providing a clear signal that there is danger ahead on the road to recovery. The tragic Gulf oil spill and still mounting European financial crisis add significant downside risk to the outlook.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jun 08 10 14:53 GMT
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Last month, our carry trade observations were taking place just as risk was trying to bounce back from what many have now dubbed the "Flash Crash" because the crash in risk leading into and culminating on May 6 was so ephemeral and because the real "crash" part of the decline was so quickly erased with a strong rally in risk appetite. Because our carry trade model proved rather prescient in indicating that potential trouble lay ahead before the early May sell-off, and because risk measures were still mired in risk averse territory even as the market tried to recover post-crash, we made the following observation the last time around on our May FX monthly (Published May 13, when the US S&P closed at 1156 compared to the 1050 or so as of this writing and when AUDUSD was trading above 0.8900, as opposed to below 0.8200):
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jun 07 10 14:27 GMT
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The extended homebuyer tax credit fooled the US housing market into another high, pushing a new home sales rally of 42% in 2010, while sales of existing homes have increased 6%. The latter reacted more forcefully to the first homebuyer tax credit than has so far been the case in this version of the tax credit, but we must remember that sales of existing homes could still rise some more in May and June as pending sales are finalized. It usually takes one to two months for a signed (pending) contract to be completed and given that pending home sales are up 13% in 2010 (7.1% and 6.0% in March and April, respectively), sales of existing homes still have legs before we are headed south.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Jun 04 10 19:02 GMT
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The uncertainty created by Europe's sovereign debt crisis caused ripples in financial markets in the past month but, outside the region, had little effect on the pace of economic growth. Data from Canada and the US confirmed that the recoveries are underway with Canada overshooting expectations while the U.S. economy posted solid growth. The emerging economies showed expected signs that momentum is slowing following a period of very rapid expansion. Eurozone data for April were a mixed bag with Germany showing strength but most other countries flagging, a worrying sign because the data pre-dates the implementation of fiscal restraint.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Jun 02 10 17:38 GMT
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Volatility has crept back into financial markets due to concerns that the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro-zone may lead to another recession there. At a minimum, fiscal tightening over the next few years will create powerful headwinds on growth in many individual economies in the Euro-zone. If another downturn occurs in the euro area, would it pull Asia under as well? What about the global economy?
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jun 02 10 10:10 GMT
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The global recovery has remained on track this year and been even stronger than expected in most regions. In the US the consumer revival has been very robust and investment spending has gathered pace, as recently witnessed by strong durable goods orders. As we highlighted in Global Scenarios in March labour market improvement is crucial for sustainability and in this area the news flow has also been positive, as US payrolls have crossed the 200,000 line earlier than expected.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
May 17 10 20:34 GMT
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Severe volatility returned to financial markets this month. Central banks had to step in once again to be the lender of last resort, with plentiful liquidity on offer to those borrowers that need it. Worries about the solvency of Greece was the proximate cause for the renewal of uncertainty and sharp reduction in volume. Securities markets have almost shut down once again, with limited primary issuance in the last few weeks. Meantime, the cost of insurance against default risk has soared. This time, however, the reason for the crisis was about the ability of a sovereign to pay its debts rather than a private company.
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 17 10 14:34 GMT
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In several issues of FX Forecast Update we have written about the risk related to the debt situation in the PIIGS countries. Admittedly however, we did underestimate the impact on the FX market - not least on EUR/USD. We revised our 3M EUR/USD forecast lower on 28 April to 1.27, see FX Research: The good, the bad and the ugly EUR scenario, but as EUR/USD is currently trading below 1.24 - a level not seen since the beginning of 2006 - the revision was obviously too modest.
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