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Forex Weekly Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Nov 22 14 01:52 GMT
Inflation has taken center-stage of late now that concerns are beginning to ease the state of the labor market. This week inflation data showed that while hardly robust, weaker price growth seems to primarily stem from falling energy prices. The PPI for final demand unexpectedly rose in October. The 0.2 percent gain, however, was overstated by a 1.5 percent rise in trade services, a new component of PPI that measures margins instead of selling prices. Excluding food, energy and trade services, prices ticked up 0.1 percent and are up 1.6 percent over the past year, just ahead of headline PPI. Meanwhile, the more reliable CPI showed consumer prices were unchanged over the month. Falling energy costs were offset by a rise in food and core services, which have been driving overall inflation higher over the past year. Although goods prices ex-food and energy were flat in October, the core index rose 0.2 percent on increasing shelter, transportation, medical, recreation and personal services. The upticks in the core measures of PPI and CPI last month allay fears of a broad softening inflation.
The ECB Takes a Step Closer to QE Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Nov 22 14 01:22 GMT
On Friday, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a damning indictment on the Eurozone economy, saying that underlying growth momentum remains weak, the economic situation in the euro-area remains difficult and that the inflation situation has become more challenging. He ended his speech by saying that a prolonged period of low CPI has weighed on some inflation expectations, which he said were "excessively low". Although he didn't use the words quantitative easing, he said that the ECB would have to broaden their asset purchases if inflation does not rise.
Weekly Focus: Big Drop in Oil Prices to Boost Consumption Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Nov 22 14 01:09 GMT
The biggest stimulus to consumers from an oil price decline since 2008. It strengthens the recovery case in early 2015 and thus risk asset performance. Bond yield decline stabilises on rise in risk appetite. Tentative signs of bottoming in the euro area. Rise in US core inflation eases downside inflation risks. Rate cut in China underpins pick-up in growth.
Week in FX Americas - Dollar Strengtens Thanks to China and Draghi Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Nov 22 14 01:06 GMT
The EUR/USD continued to fall this week after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged European Union leaders to do whatever it takes to avoid stagnation. Whatever it takes in this case is quantitative easing. Sovereign bond-buying to increase liquidity and stimulate higher consumption and inflation spurring economic growth. The Federal Reserve just finished its own quantitative easing program in October. The QE and forward guidance combo have a mixed track record but its hard to deny that the U.S. economy looks healthier now than it did before those were implemented.
Week in FX Europe - Draghi Hands Ammo to Euro Bear Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Nov 22 14 01:05 GMT
The euro bear got a subtle hint yesterday to consider "not" booking any EUR profits just yet, all because the EUR bull happened to be blinded by flash purchasing mangers' index (PMI) numbers. The ones that did nothing should be thanking European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi this 'frantic' Friday morning, as he managed to "put the boot in" with another whatever-it-takes kind of moment.
Week in FX Asia - China's Surprise Rate Cut Jolts Currency Markets Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Nov 22 14 01:03 GMT
The Chinese central bank made headlines on Friday morning with a surprise rate cut designed to avoid falling short of its growth target this year. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) had tried smaller stimulus packages earlier this year with limited success. Beijing started a campaign about China falling short of its projected 7.5% growth this year, and that all things considered, it would not be a disaster to the global economy. That is why the market was caught offside by the PBoC's announcement.
Weekly Wrap: USD Suggesting Deeper Pullback Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by ThinkForex | Nov 17 14 02:19 GMT
A slight reduction of both long and short contracts by large speculators at the highs suggests a hesitancy to commit at current levels. Bearish outside day on Friday and a Rikshaw Man Doji candle on W1 warn of weakness at the 88.30 high. A break below 87.28 warns of a deeper correction and may target the 86.9 and 86.5 support. Until a break lower than the Dollar is likely to trade sideways in the 120 pip range it has been stuck for the past 7 sessions.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Nov 15 14 04:48 GMT
NFIB small business optimism improved to 96.1 in October, just above consensus expectations. Consistent with our view for firming real final sales in the domestic economy, one of the strongest components of the NFIB survey was higher expected sales. While the improvement in the headline number suggests small businesses continue to find themselves in a more solid position economically, underlying components still point to a mix of optimism and caution. For example, the net percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve in the next six months remains at -3 percent. On a more positive note, a net 26 percent of firms are expecting to increase capital spending, compared to 22 percent the previous month. The increase in October comes as we have seen an improvement in survey data for businesses and individuals. The ISM manufacturing index returned to a recent multiyear high and the majority of regional PMIs are also pointing to strength ahead. From the consumer side, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence jumped 5.5 points to 94.5 and University of Michigan consumer sentiment ticked up to 89.4 as well in November.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Nov 15 14 04:27 GMT
With the U.S. slipping into its typical post payrolls data lull, the focus this week primarily squared around international economic data and the continued decline in the price of crude oil. At the time of writing, the front futures contract for WTI is down 4.5% for the week and currently sits just north of $75 - a touch above its four-year low. On the surface, yesterday's weekly crude inventory report should have been supportive of domestic oil prices, with last week's drawdown in oil inventories reaching 1.7M barrels - counter to the consensus forecast which called for a modest increase of 0.75M barrels. The underlying details, however, revealed that the draw was largely due to an increase in refinery utilization as opposed to an increase in overall demand. With global supplies currently at elevated levels and softening global demand already top of mind following weaker than industrial production data out of China, oil prices were already vulnerable to a further decline.
Abe May Call an Early Election, Delay Sales Tax Hike Depending on GDP Data Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Nov 15 14 04:18 GMT
Reports coming from the media in Japan suggest that the ruling party is eyeing an early election on December 14 in order to shore up support for Abenomics. There are also rumors that Abe is planning on pushing back a planned increase in the sales tax in response to weakness in the economy. While the latter isn't overly shocking given the damage that the first VAT increase did, the former came as a surprise to the market. No election in the lower house needs to be called until 2016 and a snap election would be a big political gamble. While the Liberal Democratic Party would almost certainly return to power, it risks surrendering some of its 85-seat majority. Abe's popularity remains strong but it's waning alongside support for Abenomics amidst funding scandals and some unpopular decisions.
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