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Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
May 21 12 01:38 GMT
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The G8 Summit achieved very little in public which was no real surprise, but there was also an apparent lack of urgency surrounding the Euro-zone situation which was a much greater surprise given a sharp deterioration in the financial sector last week. Where was the urgency for fresh action to help support the Euro banking sector? The absence must surely indicate that Euro-zone and G8 leaders, while paying lip-service to the current strategy, have effectively moved on and are actively planning the next stage of the crisis.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
May 19 12 15:33 GMT
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QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion every time there are concerns that economic growth is faltering or potential threats become more than potential, like the recent chapter in the Greek tragedy.
Today, with the economy growing, albeit slowly, there are not that many arguments for another round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve. However, this week's numbers have been less than stellar in terms of the economic recovery and the drop over the past few months in the overall CPI inflation rate could, in theory, give the Federal Reserve scope to embark upon another round of QE. Markets are speculating once again about QE3, not because of domestic fears but because they see the risks coming from a potential breakup crisis in the Eurozone and its potential effects on world economic activity.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
May 19 12 15:16 GMT
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Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Fears that Greece will soon leave the euro zone rose as the country's unstable politics undermine its economic reform process and a shrinking deposit base threatens its banks. Beyond the Hellenic Republic, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades, the euro remained under pressure and markets drove up government borrowing costs in Spain, Italy and Portugal. Less publicized, worries over the Chinese economy have also emerged, as electricity and real estate data point to a sharper growth slowdown than many economists had forecast.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
May 19 12 04:09 GMT
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It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout parties and stay in the currency bloc, or don't and leave.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
May 14 12 02:57 GMT
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Greece will inevitably dominate the week ahead as domestic political parties and German government test the current policy structure to destruction with a game of bluff, counter bluff and brinkmanship. It will be extremely difficult to put the Greek Euro exit genie back in the bottle even if all sides attempt to pull back from the precipice. Meanwhile, as capital will continue to vote with its feet, the Euro is set to remain under selling pressure. If no Greek government can be formed by May 17th then new elections for June will have to be called. Given that the last thing the Euro-zone needs is another four weeks of policy vacuum and paralysis, elections would deal another blow to the Euro.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
May 12 12 16:34 GMT
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While it was a fairly light week for economic data, the indicators released painted a somewhat better labor market picture. Last week's disappointing nonfarm payroll report now appears to be an even greater paradox, with weaker-than-expected payroll gains and a pullback in the unemployment rate driven by a reduction in the labor force participation rate. The report generated more questions than answers. By contrast, the employment component of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey and the Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) released this week suggest the recent monthly malaise in the labor market could be somewhat overstated.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
May 12 12 16:14 GMT
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Once again all eyes were on Europe this week following the results of the French and Greek weekend elections, which appear to have rejected the idea of austerity as the key to Europe's salvation. Hollande's win in France marks the shift in sentiment to an agenda of growth. Meanwhile in Greece, a fragmented election result left the pro-bailout coalition rivals-turned-partners two seats shy of majority in the 300-seat chamber. With a divided electorate and no one party able to yet form a government, it is very likely that new elections will have to be called by the end of June. If the stalemate persists, the country risks the termination of its current bailout program with the EU/IMF, which could, in turn, precipitate its exit from the euro zone.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
May 11 12 18:13 GMT
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The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 11 12 14:59 GMT
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Global market sentiment took another dip this week as fears over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone hit the markets following the Greek elections.
Tensions in the Spanish banking system are back in focus. The Spanish government announced it would take measures to stabilise the Spanish banking sector, and the first step was a rescue package for Spain's third-largest bank Bankia.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
May 07 12 02:18 GMT
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The new Euro-zone politics will dominate the first part of the week and, in all probability, the week as a whole. The Euro-zone is heading for catastrophe if policies are unchanged and electorates are relentless in demanding change as governments are ousted across Europe. Increased political risk will result in a weaker Euro. Any shift in strategy will, initially at least, mean a weaker Euro. The critical EUR/USD 1.30 support zone could provide a stern test for bears, but the Euro is likely to break lower and threaten 2012 lows.
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