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Forex Weekly Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Mar 28 15 04:58 GMT
Economic data so far in the first quarter have pointed to a downshift in the pace of growth. There are a number of factors likely weighing on U.S. growth this quarter, including unusually cold winter weather, sluggish global growth and the much stronger U.S. dollar. Data this week on durable goods orders continued to point toward a weak quarter for the manufacturing sector. Consumer prices, while still at a low level, rose slightly in February as oil prices edged slightly higher. Housing market data on sales activity showed a significant improvement, which was welcomed news after last week's disappointing housing starts numbers. The third look at fourth-quarter real GDP growth was unrevised at 2.2 percent as less inventory building was offset by stronger consumer spending. The downward revision to inventories implies that there may be less of a drag in the first quarter from inventories, given the pace of building in Q4.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Mar 28 15 04:00 GMT
While there was a dearth of top tier economic indicators this week, there were enough developments to lead to some interesting market moves, which bucked recent trends. In terms of international economic data, global purchasing manager's indexes (PMI) moved to center stage. The PMI's came in below expectations in Japan and China, but above expectations in Europe. The positive PMI release follows a string of other positive data out of Europe, increasing confidence that a much-awaited rebound in the euro area economy is finally taking shape. This has contributed to a modest firming in the euro relative to the USD over the past two weeks, which hitherto, had been a near one-way bet lower. With sixteen more months of QE ahead in Europe, the euro is likely to return to its downward trajectory sooner or later. However, the positive economic news should be cheered in America, as rising domestic demand in Europe will be supportive to U.S. exports, even in the face of a strong dollar.
Is the Dollar Gearing Up for Another Leg Higher? Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Mar 28 15 03:56 GMT
The last two weeks has been a trial for dollar bulls. They have seen the dollar index go from a high of 100.40 to 96.00 after a mixture of weak US economic data and a Federal Reserve that seemed less committed to hiking rates. But, after such sharp rise in the dollar - it is up more than 25% since July - with relatively few pullbacks, a pause was to be expected. As we start a new week, there is a chance that the USD uptrend may resume.
Weekly Focus: Optimism is Spreading Across Europe Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Mar 28 15 03:47 GMT
Europe continues to deliver good news - other regions disappoint. Still positive on risk assets based on global recovery and ample liquidity. Time to add to periphery bonds. Limited upside to oil price as oil glut remains. EUR/USD to go lower after correction.
Week Ahead in FX: EU Inflation and US Jobs Data to Decide USD Fate Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Mar 28 15 03:43 GMT
The USD was able to bounce back toward the end of the week and ahead of a crucial set of data releases. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0876 close to the price levels of the start the week (1.0809) after hitting and failing to stay at 1.10. European inflation is the highlight in an indicator-packed Tuesday. Wednesday will bring further insight into the strength of the U.S. economic recovery with the release of the ISM manufacturing data and ADP nonfarm employment change. Trade balances in Canada and the U.S., along with the construction purchasing managers' index in the U.K., will be the focus of the market on Thursday. The end of the week will bring the biggest indicator in forex: the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. Though April 3 is the Good Friday holiday, investors worldwide will once again be acutely focused on the resilience of the American jobs data.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Mar 21 15 08:33 GMT
The big news this week came at the conclusion of the FOMC's two day meeting. We detail our views on the Fed policy statement and its impact on interest rates in the Interest Rate Watch section. We now expect the first fed funds rate hike in September. Industrial production data continued to reflect a softening of manufacturing activity in the first quarter. It appears that weather played an important role in housing starts as new construction activity fell 17 percent in February. The index of leading indicators signaled that momentum behind economic growth remains beyond what is shaping up to be a soft first quarter of economic growth.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Mar 21 15 08:20 GMT
In a week that was relatively sparse on economic data releases, the big event for investors was the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. As expected, the central bank eliminated patience from its statement, signaling a move away from forward guidance and toward data-dependent policy. While this clears the way for what would be the first rate hike in nearly a decade, the seemingly hawkish change in the Fed's rhetoric was more than offset by a surprising number of dovish elements elsewhere in the statement and within its updated economic projections. Markets responded positively to the news - both equity and bond indexes rallied, while the dollar sold off.
Has the Fed Disrupted the Dollar Rally? Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Mar 21 15 08:15 GMT
Last week we saw one of the worst weeks for the USD in months. A perfect storm hit the buck: Janet Yellen and co. at the Federal Reserve scaled back their expectations for rate hikes this year, the market had become increasingly long dollars and, as we have pointed out recently, the economic data in the US has started to stall.
Week in FX: A Wild Ride for Forex Traders Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Mar 20 15 15:32 GMT
Many are hoping that it will be a calm close to a mad week that happened to see the Federal Reserve temper enthusiasm for U.S. growth with imminent policy changes. A few not-so-subtle dot-plot changes happened to spark the second-largest round trip move for the EUR since 2000 in a 24-hour period on Thursday (€1.0613-€1.1062). For a considerable period of time the market has been so tightly wound, long U.S. dollars, some sort of correction was certainly overdue. The Street got the Fed's 'patient' omission call correct midweek, but was completely surprised that policymakers were not more impressed by the improvements in the U.S. labor market. Investors had been operating under the assumption that the U.S. was at the Fed's upper limit of full employment definition from last December (+5.5%). Nevertheless, due to the fact that the Fed has the capacity to shift the needle on the jobs front, this market was always going to get hurt by overt "dovishness," temporarily at least.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Mar 14 15 11:33 GMT
After an unimpressive start to the year, consumer spending does not look to have perked up much at all in February. Retail sales unexpectedly fell, declining 0.6 percent. The drop marks the third straight monthly decline, with sales now contracting at a threemonth average annualized rate of 4.8 percent. However, unlike previous months, February's miss was tougher to pin on pricerelated declines in sales at gasoline stations. Following the first monthly increase since June in AAA's measure of gas prices, sales at gasoline stations rose 1.5 percent.
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