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Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Feb 06 12 12:46 GMT
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In Greece - there appears to be a new agreement to cut a further 1.5% of GDP in spending amongh the key parties, but the deadline for signing off with the troika is fast approaching tomorrow at 11 a.m. local time. Will Greece agree to troika terms and more importantly, will Greece follow through on its promises - that's the key issue that has it in hot water with the troika in the first place. The voluntary PSI deal is estimated to have a haircut around 70%.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
Feb 06 12 02:59 GMT
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The severe arctic winds have reminded much of Europe that winter still has some bite and, in a similar vein, risk appetite is likely to peak as a more sobering reality returns. A key issue is that governments will look to take advantage of any improvement in conditions to row back on reforms and austerity as they face an increasingly hostile electorate. Key banking-sector reforms are also likely to be delayed with underlying issues left unresolved and business confidence is liable to dip again as seasonal components become much less favourable. The dollar should be able to resist heavy selling even if a Greek solution can be found.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Feb 04 12 17:53 GMT
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This week's economic data continued to point toward sustained economic growth. The employment situation improved at a better-than-expected pace in January with 243K additional jobs added. Personal income and spending data indicated that personal incomes rose modestly in December, but slightly lower consumer spending resulted in a higher savings rate for the month. In the industrial sector, the ISM-manufacturing survey moved further into explanatory territory in January, with the new orders component posting a modest increase. As a result of this week's data we have revised our GDP forecast for the Q1 to 1.4 percent and 1.9 percent for 2012. The employment report led to a slight upward revision to our employment outlook for the year. We now expect that an average of 155K jobs per month will be added this year.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Feb 04 12 17:33 GMT
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You'd be forgiven if you began this week feeling a bit glum. With the Federal Reserve downgrading their forecasts for economic growth and reinforcing their pessimism with a commitment to leave interest rates at low levels until late 2014, who wouldn't be left feeling a bit melancholy? Even more, who, upon opening the business section of their newspaper, wouldn't have felt just a bit disappointed reading about economic growth in the fourth quarter? Not only did growth come in below expectations, but the details showed a dramatic slowdown in domestic demand.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
Feb 04 12 04:19 GMT
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The past week ended with a string of better-than-expected data releases from key major economies, suggesting the global recovery may avoid a more worrisome downturn. Mostly better than expected PMI's from Europe, UK, China and the US were supplemented on Friday by a much stronger US employment report than was expected. We're cautiously optimistic that the better US jobs report is a valid signal that the US recovery is improving, but we're also aware that January employment numbers are especially volatile due to seasonal factors, and subject to major revision. The decline in the unemployment rate in the January report, in particular, is also suspect due to the inclusion of new population data from the 2010 census. The best way to interpret the data is as though the unemployment rate was already at 8.3% in December as opposed to having declined in January.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Feb 03 12 16:52 GMT
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Another week closes with the promise of a deal on the Greek PSI debt swap. The urgency for such a deal is rising with a hard deadline of 13 February approaching. The coming week will be a question of sequencing. The coming days should see Greece agree with the Troika measures to address deficit target slippage. This needs to be done by Monday's Euro Area finance ministers meeting so it can approve Greece's second bail out package, in turn necessary to allow the PSI deal to progress. The actual debt swap is slated for the second half of this month, to provide Greece with funds to meet its €14.5bn payment on 20 March. Markets remain sanguine over this sequence, but risks are evident.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Feb 03 12 16:33 GMT
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PMIs from most of the world increased in January, signalling an improvement in global industry.
For Europe, the numbers support our view that the sharpest fall in production in this recession happened in Q4 11 and that the European economies are on course for positive growth rates again in Q2 12.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jan 30 12 12:07 GMT
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This week is guaranteed to produce volatile market action, with plenty of headline risk and a raft of interesting data releases on the economic calendar. Stay tuned and stay careful out there. This week is a busy one, with Asian markets fully back on-line (though many in China are not back to work until next week), a key EU summit today and ongoing nerves related to the Greek bailout deal and the potential for the need for a second bailout for Portugal, and a heavy US economic calendar guaranteeing a week that will be heavy on the nerves and possibly also on volatility.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
Jan 30 12 03:13 GMT
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The first part of the week will inevitably be dominated by Monday's EU Summit and continuing talks surrounding the Greek debt-restructuring deal. There has been a significant shift in tone and rhetoric from officials and this will be a key theme over the coming week as Euro-zone leaders are now more confident that the contagion firewall is strong enough to cope with an effective Greek default which is encouraging them to take a tougher stance, especially with the dovish Fed tone also still helping to support risk appetite.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Jan 28 12 18:58 GMT
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Real GDP grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate during the fourth quarter. Growth was helped by a $58 billion swing in inventory building, which accounted for 1.9 percentage points of the quarter's growth. The rise in inventories means that the production of goods and services increased faster than final demand, which is something that cannot continue for very long and raises questions about how strong growth will be during the first half of 2012. The economy's underlying momentum appears to remain intact, however, and economic activity should continue to improve at a modest pace over the next few quarters.
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