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Forex Expos

Forex Weekly Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Jan 24 15 03:41 GMT
The biggest economic news this week came from outside the United States, with the European Central Bank announcing a larger-than-expected round of quantitative easing to help combat deflationary pressures and Canada announcing a rate cut. As a result, the U.S. dollar has appreciated considerably against both currencies after already exhibiting upward pressure from the divergence between domestic growth and that of the rest of the world, namely Europe and Japan. Appreciation of the U.S. dollar had already been a concern for U.S. manufacturers struggling to compete against their counterparts abroad. The January Manufacturing Survey from the Kansas City Fed included information that pointed to manufacturers' struggles with an appreciating currency. More respondents reported a decline in new export orders relative to the previous month and the previous year. In addition, expectations for export orders in the next six months are in negative territory.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Jan 24 15 03:27 GMT
After sitting on the sidelines for roughly 4 ½ years, the Bank of Canada stunned markets this week, cutting the overnight target rate by 25 basis points. The move was triggered by the precipitous plunge in oil prices, which have fallen by 55% since mid-2014 and are now sitting below the US$50 per barrel mark. Following the Bank's announcement, the Canadian dollar lost nearly 2 cents, settling at a near 6-year low of just under 81 US cents.
The Week Ahead: Special Greek Election Preview Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Jan 24 15 03:15 GMT
On 25th January the Greek people will head to the polls for the second election in less than three years. Early elections were called after the Greek government did not manage to get a majority of the parliament to vote for its choice of president by 29th Dec 2014. As we have found out over the last few years, the political situation in Greece is extremely complex. Not only are there a range of political parties and players, but the election could have a big impact on the Greek bailout program and on relations between Athens and its Troika of bailout partners. Some are even calling this election a referendum on Greece's membership in the Eurozone.
Week in FX - Draghi's ECB Goes All In Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 24 15 02:46 GMT
The European Central Bank (ECB) was always expected to be the main event of the past week. Capital markets had time aplenty to prepare to react to President Mario Draghi's post-meeting press conference. Would the ECB stand and deliver? Would it implement a quantitative easing (QE) package and what are the details? Despite it not being a unanimous decision, Draghi and his fellow cohorts on the ECB's Governing Council delivered more than what the market was expecting.
Weekly Focus: ECB Delivers Strong QE Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Jan 24 15 02:44 GMT
In Greece, anti-austerity party Syriza is poised to win the general election and Greece faces higher uncertainty and volatility. Inflation is expected to have dropped further into negative territory in the euro area. US GDP growth remained solid above 3% q/q in Q4 (annualised) supported by strong private consumption. The Fed is expected to reiterate that it can afford to be patient at this week's FOMC meeting. The Danish central bank could be forced to cut interest rate further to stem the appreciation pressure on DKK.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Jan 17 15 03:42 GMT
Economic data this week was rather dramatically influenced by the ongoing slide in oil prices. The nominally reported retail sales report showed a significant reversal of sales trends compared to the past several months, which we partially attribute to pricing effects rather than outright weakness. Three inflation measures, the import price index, producer price index and the consumer price index all posed month-over-month declines, again reflecting the slide in oil prices. Total industrial activity pulled back in December even through manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent for the month. Given the economic data this week, specifically the much weaker-than-expected retail sales report, we see some downside risk to our fourth quarter real consumer spending forecast.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Jan 17 15 03:28 GMT
Volatility and fear were the name of the game this week, as market sentiment turned decisively sour. The U.S. equity fear gauge, known as the VIX, rose by 22%. Equities sold off, while safe-haven bonds and currencies, and even gold, rallied. Concerns about subdued global growth and persistently low inflation, or "lowflation", continued to be top of mind for investors. This week, commodities were once again under pressure, as the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth. FX markets were also jolted by the surprise decision by the Swiss National Bank to abandon the franc's currency ceiling against the euro, prompting its sharp appreciation. This decision has further fuelled expectations that the ECB will announce a sovereign bond-buying program at its meeting next week, which pushed the euro even lower.
SNB Shocker: What the CHF? Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Jan 17 15 03:15 GMT
Looking back, last week was historic for the FX market. EURCHF had a 2000+ pip decline in a matter of minutes, the market questioned the credibility in the SNB, and the prospect of QE from the ECB this week is considered to be in the bag. The riskiest assumption about last week's events is, of course, the ECB move. The bank never pre-commits to policy changes, and after the SNB move caused EURUSD to fall to a fresh 11-year low, does the ECB actually need to embark on QE? Some would argue no. Not only is the currency weak, but European bond yields fell to record lows. German bond yields plunged on Thursday (see chart below) and Spanish, Italian and even Greek yields were lower on the week.
Weekly Focus: ECB to Go for Full-Blown QE Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Jan 17 15 03:06 GMT
SNB scraps the floor on EUR/CHF in a pre-emptive move ahead of ECB. This could force more easing by Scandinavian central banks. The ECB is set to deliver aggressive QE next week. The potential for a decline in bund yield is limited, the periphery should benefit and EUR/USD move lower. Labour market slack debate resurfaces in US after a drop in wages in December. Markets postpone first rate hike in the US; we still expect the first rate hike by mid- 2015.
Week in FX Europe - Swiss Shock Sets the Stage for ECB QE Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Jan 17 15 03:04 GMT
Based on the number of scheduled events this week the market expected this week to a slow one. Enter the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Single-handedly the SNB managed to send shockwaves through global markets this week as it abandoned its €1.20 EUR/CHF line in the sand first implemented three-and-half years ago. It also lowered interest rates on deposits further, a deterrent to parking cash with the central bank. The about-face by the Swiss authorities managed to push gold prices to a five-month high ($1,263) as investors sought sanctuary in the yellow metal.
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