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Forex Weekly Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Dec 03 16 08:31 GMT
This week's major data releases showed economic conditions continue to gradually improve. Growth was stronger than initially reported in the third quarter, with GDP now estimated to have risen at a 3.2 percent annualized pace. While business investment was even weaker than originally reported, stronger consumer spending helped the economy to grow at the fastest pace in two years.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Dec 03 16 08:17 GMT
The sell-off in global bonds continued through this week, marking the fourth consecutive week of sizeable losses for bond investors. The U.S. 10-yr Treasury yield hit 2.44% earlier this morning - a level not seen since mid-2015. European bond markets also sold off, with yields rising to early-2016 levels. The stock market failed to benefit from the exodus from bonds this week however, with the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ on track to end the week lower for the first time since the U.S. election. The trade-weighted dollar is also down on the week, reflecting rising oil prices in the aftermath of OPEC's plan to cut supply next month that has lifted currencies of oil exporters.
Vigilant ECB Ahead of Italian Referendum And European Rate Statement Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Dec 03 16 08:08 GMT
A government mandate forces Italian pollsters to stop their work two weeks preceding the Italian vote on constitutional reforms, this has reduced the anxiety about the odds of the No vote coming out ahead being reported on a daily basis with such a large continent of undecided voters and expats expected to turn out which could add another political surprise this year. Italians will head to the polls on Sunday, December 5 and while the referendum is not about a potential Italexit (Italeave?) it could mark the beginning of the end for Italy' membership in the European Union.
Market Review & Outlook: Mixed Jobs Report Keeps High Fed Expectations Intact Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Dec 02 16 15:55 GMT
As we noted the day before Friday's US jobs report, only a significantly worse-than-expected reading for November would have likely made the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision more difficult. A better-than-expected or in-line result would have simply reinforced the very high likelihood that the Fed would hike interest rates by 25 basis points on December 14. As it turns out, the jobs report was neither exceptionally positive nor overly negative, resulting in an expectedly muted market response and no appreciable change to the prospects of a Fed rate hike.
Weekly Focus: ECB and EU Politics Back in the Spotlight Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Dec 02 16 15:14 GMT
The global recovery is gathering pace and is likely to continue in 2017. Long-term yields are set to increase further with reflation, primarily in the US. Despite a fragile OPEC deal, oil prices are likely to rise further in 2017. Position for a stronger USD near term but a rebound in EUR/USD later in 2017. The stronger global economic outlook is still positive for equities.
Fed Likely to Hike in December Despite Mixed Jobs Report for November Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Dec 02 16 15:12 GMT
The jobs report for November was quite mixed. Employment grew 178,000 in November in line with the recent trend and without any major revisions to previous months. The unemployment rate fell against expectations, from 4.9% to 4.6%, but this was due mainly to a fall in the labour force, so it fell for the wrong reason. The most disappointing part of the jobs report was average hourly earnings, which fell 0.1% m/m in November - the first fall since December 2015 and the biggest decrease since December 2014.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Nov 26 16 11:04 GMT
With markets closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving, this was a short, but exciting week. Investors continued to pull money out of emerging markets, while U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with all three major indices jumping to record highs for the first time since 1999 (Chart 1). Long-term yields started the week at a slightly lower level, but sold off through the week. At the time of writing, the 10-year yield was slightly higher than last week's close and up an impressive 56 basis points from the start of the month.
Week Ahead OPEC and US Jobs to Influence Markets Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Nov 26 16 10:57 GMT
Market action was interrupted by various holidays around the world but overall the U.S. dollar continued to rebuild the momentum it had after the elections. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in November sent a strong signal about a December rate hike. The CME's FedWatch tool is showing a 93.5 probability of a rate hike on December 14. The infrastructure spending comments from president-elect Trump has also boosted rate hike expectations for next year expanding the monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and other major markets.
Weekly Focus: Political Uncertainty to Prevail - Next Stop Italy Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Nov 25 16 16:13 GMT
In the US focus next week will on the November jobs report on Friday. We estimate non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 in line with recent trend and estimate an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.9%. This is in our view sufficient 'further evidence' for the FOMC to raise rates in December, which is now also fully priced in by markets.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Nov 19 16 04:02 GMT
The stream of economic data picked up this week after light data last week and a tumultuous few days following the U.S. election. On the household front, retail sales started Q4 with a bang, rising 0.8 percent on top of an upwardly revised September reading. Strong auto and gasoline station sales provided a lift to the headline, but even excluding these components retail sales rose a solid 0.6 percent in Oct. and 4.3 percent over the past year (top chart). The consumer appears well-positioned to make further gains in Q4, and we expect real consumer spending growth to settle in at around a 2.4 percent rate in the quarters ahead. Housing starts also surprised to the upside in October, surging 25.5 percent. Seasonal factors likely overstated the gain, and building permits rose less dramatically than starts, suggesting some payback may be in order. With two months remaining in the year, single-family starts are up 10.1 percent year to date.
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