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Forex Weekly Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."



Weekly Focus: Eurozone Growth Takes a Breather While US Rebounds Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | May 22 15 14:22 GMT
We expect US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower over the coming week, due primarily to exports and inventories. We expect the underlying upward trend in the US housing market to continue and we look for a rebound in both new home sales and pending home sales in April. In the euro area, the most important release next week is the data on money and credit. We estimate M3 growth increased 4.9% y/y in April. Further, upcoming speeches from ECB President Mario Draghi and ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet should also attract some attention.
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | May 16 15 04:49 GMT
Economic data released during the week suggest we could see another quarter of soft activity. Retail sales came in flat in April, marking the third straight month the headline reading came in weaker than expected (top graph). In fact, retail sales have registered a negative or flat reading in four of the five past months. Now that transitory factors are largely behind us, including weather and West Coast port disruptions, analysts are now asking if we are seeing a permanent slowdown in overall economic activity, especially as consumers remain cautious amid strengthening labor market conditions and still-low retail gasoline prices. The expected boost to consumer spending from lower retail gasoline prices did not come to pass. So why are consumers still on the sidelines?
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The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | May 16 15 04:34 GMT
The economic tea leaves have become cloudy. On the one hand, the data flow for the first quarter of the year has been consistently dismal. Economic growth in the quarter appears to have contracted by as much as 1.0% (annualized), far worse than the (admittedly mediocre) +0.2% originally estimated and even further below expectations earlier in the year. The weakness in the first quarter can be blamed on a number of idiosyncratic factors - bad weather, port-disruptions, and maybe even a little "residual seasonality" (more on this later). Even more concerning is that the weakness appears to have continued into the early months of the second quarter. This week, retail sales data showed no growth in April, disappointing modest expectations for a 0.2% gain.
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What's Up with the Buck? Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | May 16 15 04:29 GMT
The buck is one of the worst performers in the G10 so far this month, and is down more than 4% vs. the GBP, and 3% vs. the NOK and AUD. Even the EUR, which has been weighed down by the ECB's QE programme and the ongoing Greek sovereign debt crisis, has managed to eke out more than 2% in gains vs. the greenback so far in May. US economic data continues to surprise on the downside, the Citibank economic surprise index for the US has slumped to a 3-year low, which could delay the timing of the first Fed rate hike. On that note, the market has also pushed back expectations for when the Fed will raise rates; the market now expects only 30 basis points of tightening before the end of the year, which is a little over 1 hike. If we continue to see weak economic data then a rate hike could be priced out for 2014 altogether. Momentum - the dollar has made a series of lower lows, and the downtrend continues to look entrenched. It has already fallen through key support including the 200-day sma and is below the daily Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that weakness in the buck could be here to stay.
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Week Ahead in FX: Central Banks, Retail Sales, Inflation to Dictate Direction Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | May 16 15 04:19 GMT
Central bank minutes, retail sales, inflation reports and manufacturing productivity will be the four major themes this week in the forex market. The Bank of Japan will be in the spotlight on Friday and whatever it does will ultimately define the week. Inaction will lead to further speculation as to when Japanese officials will act given its propensity to surprise the market on occasion. Elsewhere, economic growth has slowed in the United Kingdom and the United States. Retail sales in the U.S. have already shown American consumers are not spending. The U.K. will release retail sales data this week to a modest forecast, but the effects of the pre-election period are not known.
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | May 09 15 15:06 GMT
The first major data release in the second quarter, the April nonfarm payrolls report, showed that job growth returned back above a 200,000 per month pace. Taken together with other recent data, it now appears that the second quarter growth outlook is better than the first quarter, but headwinds to growth will likely remain. Furthermore, data from this week's international trade report for March showed that the trade deficit widened far more than the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated for the first quarter. We expect that the trade data by itself will likely shave around 0.5 percentage points from the already sluggish 0.2 percent growth for Q1. Unfortunately, it does not appear that second quarter GDP growth will rebound at the same rate observed in the second quarter of last year.
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The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | May 09 15 14:50 GMT
How quickly markets can change. It was not that long ago that economists and financial analysts alike were racing to find the bottom in the price of crude oil. Since mid-March, however, the price of the barrel has rallied more than 35% with the U.S. benchmark currently sitting at $59.4 (at the time of writing). The recent strength in the price of crude is due to a confluence of factors, including increased speculative positions from non-commercial investors, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the recent slide in the U.S. dollar. Also proving supportive of prices has been the plateauing in U.S. shale production, which has come as a direct result of the sharp pullback in the number of active oil rigs over the past several months. This was evident in the Department of Energy's weekly inventory report released on Thursday, which showed a net draw of crude inventories totaling 3.9 million barrels. Still, even with the more recent bullish sentiment, another leg downward in the price of oil cannot be ruled out. Even after accounting for the slowing in shale production, storage space in the U.S. is quickly evaporating, at a time when global demand remains lukewarm.
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EUR: Is Greece Still a Concern? Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Forex.com | May 09 15 14:40 GMT
As we start a new week we are only days away from another repayment deadline for Athens on Tuesday. After more negotiations last week, we are still no closer to Greece securing a bailout deal. However, there was some softening in the rhetoric, with EU officials still claiming that it is too early to talk about a Grexit. Also, the Greek fin min said that a deal is getting close. So what should we expect this week?
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Week Ahead in FX: Greece, BoE and US Retail Sales Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | May 09 15 14:25 GMT
The release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls had a muted effect last week as the market had already priced in an improvement over last month's disappointment. The outcome of the employment component being so close to the expectation dissuaded traders to pick a side as the USD traded mostly sideways versus major pairs. Next week will see a return of the Bank of England to the markets and more importantly policy members comments. Due to election rules civil servants, including central bank employees, were not able to make regular statements as they could have affected the outcome. The Eurogroup will try to solve the Greek dilemma and the U.S. will face the consumer paradox: If confidence is high why are American consumers not spending?. U.S. retail sales and Consumer Sentiment will be released this week.
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Weekly Focus: Wild Ride in Markets Over the Past Week Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | May 09 15 14:23 GMT
We expect that GDP growth in Norway slowed to 0.3% q/q in Q1 mainly due to the lower oil price, which has become visible in the economy. Global macro and market themes Very fierce bond sell-off - partly due to poor liquidity. We expect higher volatility in stocks but retain a positive stance. US data rebounding - on track for Fed hike in September. Euro data getting more mixed.
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