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Forex Weekly Fundamental Reports

Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Oct 03 15 03:50 GMT
Third quarter GDP growth looks like it is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment in light of rather stiff headwinds from inventories and international trade. However, economic data this week indicated that once again the consumer sector is poised to support greater consumer spending in Q3. Real consumer spending in August rose to 3.5 percent on a three-month annualized basis, while personal income growth remains solid. September's nonfarm payroll numbers and the sharp downward revision to August's job growth suggest that the momentum behind the recent trend in consumer spending may downshift in the coming months. Construction spending continued to improve in August; however, there are still signs that manufacturers are struggling.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Oct 03 15 03:38 GMT
Headwinds to U.S. growth emanating from the soft global economic backdrop and elevated greenback were one of the motivations behind the Fed's decision not to raise rates in September. As we kick off October, these risks continue to loom and were highly apparent in this week's trade, manufacturing and employment data. The advance report on U.S. international trade in goods - the new monthly indicator released on Tuesday - showed a dramatic deterioration in the merchandise trade balance in August, with the deficit widening from $59.1B to $67.2B. A combination of the strong dollar and subdued global demand weighed on exports, which fell by 3.5% m/m, marking the biggest decline since January. Meanwhile, imports gained 1.8% m/m, underscoring a comparatively robust level of domestic demand. While trade data will likely perform better next month, the extent of deterioration in the trade deficit in August suggests that the external sector will be a major drag on the U.S. growth in the third quarter.
Doves are Re-circling the Aussie Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Oct 03 15 03:24 GMT
The Reserve Bank of Australia is under pressure to loosen monetary policy further due to the risks facing the Australian economy. While it's true that parts of the economy are performing well, the broader economy is exposed to falling commodity prices and worsening economic conditions in some of its main trading partners, especially China. This is outpacing an ongoing transition away from being so heavily reliant on resource and related sectors.
Week Ahead in FX: USD Shrugs Off Dissapointing NFP Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Oct 03 15 03:04 GMT
The highly awaited U.S. non farm payrolls report (NFP) dissapointed an already jittery market with 142,000 new jobs when more than 200,000 were expected. The USD fell after the release of the lower than expected October NFP report, adding the fact that the upward revision to the August number that was anticipated turned out to be a downward change. The U.S. Federal Reserve held rates in September which made the USD lose ground, but was quickly regained after policymakers still saw a rate hike before the end of the year. Employment, the strongest pillar of the U.S. recovery, has stumbled and has reduced the possibility the Fed will act in the two remaining monetary policy meetings left this year.
Weekly Focus: Growing Weakness Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Oct 02 15 14:22 GMT
A variety of speeches and the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will shed light on the Fed's view of the economy and how far we are from a rate hike. The Bank of England is not expected to make any changes to monetary policy at its meeting during the week. China intervened in the FX market to the tune of more than USD100bn in August. This week, we will find out what happened in September, while money supply data will tell us more about growth. Swedish data for export orders, production and household consumption will give us a good idea of how the economy fared in Q3. Inflation in Norway will be well above target but Norges Bank has signalled that this will not prevent a rate cut.
NZD/USD: Are bulls coming to the rescue? Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by | Sep 26 15 04:26 GMT
The diverging monetary policy objectives of New Zealand and the US have made NZD/USD an easy target recently, with the pair hovering around its lowest level in over six years. The kiwi's once strong fundamental supports have almost completely eroded alongside NZ's monetary policy outlook and rising fears about the health of the global economy. At the same time, the US dollar has benefited from the prospect of monetary policy tightening from the Fed and increased safe haven flows amidst a risk-off tone in the market.
The Weekly Bottom Line Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by TD Bank Financial Group | Sep 26 15 04:19 GMT
The Fed took a pass on raising rates last week, citing concern that recent global and financial developments would restrain activity and put further downward pressure on inflation. At the same time, its updated projections contained lower inflation, a lower long-run unemployment rate, and a lower median path for the fed funds rate, all of which contributed to the dovish feel. Fed dovishness is typically positive for financial markets - pulling up both equity and bond prices. However, the tone in markets this week has been decidedly risk-off. While the Fed's statement didn't tell us anything we didn't already know about the downside risk to the global economy, the Fed's message appears to have focused market attention on it. Continued weak Chinese data, the emissions scandal at Volkswagen, and expectations of a U.S. government shutdown next week all added to the bearish tone in markets.
Week Ahead in FX: NFP to Fall on Fed's Deaf Ears Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by MarketPulse | Sep 26 15 04:14 GMT
After a disappointing September FOMC that did not bring the much-awaited first interest rate hike came a round of contradictory statements by Fed members that culminated with Chair Yellen trying to clear the intentions of the central bank regarding inflation and interest rates a put a 2015 interest rate hike firmly on the table. The week of September 28 to October 2 will bring three major American employment releases.
Weekly Focus: Emerging Markets the Weak Link in the Global Economy Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Danske Bank | Sep 25 15 14:54 GMT
The Emerging Markets have become the weak link in the global economy and represent the biggest risk factor currently. We look for Chinese growth to stay around 6½-7% in the coming years, while there is likely to be little relief for commodity-exporting EM economies. The US economy continues with a moderate recovery and the Fed is expected to start raising rates in December - although very slowly. The euro recovery faces some downside risk in the short term from the EM turmoil but we expect the recovery to continue in the medium term.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wells Fargo Securities | Sep 19 15 09:01 GMT
The Federal Reserve determined that the economy has not healed enough to warrant a quarter-point rate hike. The Fed not only left interest rates unchanged, but also lowered its expectations for the appropriated federal funds rate for the end of 2015, 2016, 2017 and over the long run. One dot even fell into negative territory for 2015 and 2016, although Janet Yellen noted that there was no serious discussion at the FOMC meeting of reducing the federal funds rate into negative territory.
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