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Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Jan 20 12 15:40 GMT
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Last week's positive tone ended abruptly with S&P's ratings downgrade of key Euro area economies. Nevertheless, sentiment has slowly inched higher, in part on improving US releases, including corporate earnings reports, but also on successful European debt auctions and the prospects for the Greek debt restructuring (PSI).
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 20 12 15:12 GMT
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The US data flow was once again tilted to the positive side. Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since spring 2008 and housing data were fairly positive. This has helped to fuel a notable improvement in market sentiment.
Standard & Poor's downgraded the EU rescue fund following the downgrade of nine euro area countries last Friday. The downgrade came as no surprise to the market and the reaction was muted.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
Jan 16 12 01:21 GMT
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Conviction is a vital element in sustaining market and political confidence and this will be a pivotal week ahead for Euro-zone faith following another day of torture on Friday. Standard & Poor’s decision to downgrade France and Austria can hardly have been a surprise as markets have been on high alert for the announcement throughout the past few weeks, but there will still be important implications at the economic and political level as the cost of Euro-zone support continues to increase. Market talk will focus on the risks of a further escalation of the Euro crisis, although it is doubtful whether selling offers immediate value at current levels.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Jan 15 12 14:20 GMT
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The story for the U.S. economy in 2012 is one of increased momentum facing off against rising headwinds. This narrative has placed economic forecasters into two camps: optimists and pessimists. Optimists see signs of a renewed period of self-reinforcing growth supported by improved job creation and ample pent-up demand. Pessimists focus on the chinks in the recovery's armor; some already evident – falling business investment and stagnant income growth – and some on the horizon – a worsening European financial crisis, euro zone recession and slowing growth in emerging market economies.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wells Fargo Securities |
Jan 15 12 09:09 GMT
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The New Year always seems to usher in an air of optimism and this year has been no exception. Better reports for the housing sector, an improving job market and generally positive news on holiday retail sales had raised hopes that the recovery was shifting into higher gear. Week two has brought in a more sober view. We have repeatedly noted our concerns about the narrow span of improvement in economic activity, the role that seasonal factors are playing in exaggerating that improvement and the lack of improvement in underlying fundaments in our analysis and outlook for 2012. This week's data generally support that view.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
Jan 14 12 01:25 GMT
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The much-feared, yet equally much-anticipated, EU sovereign credit rating downgrades have arrived. The winners were Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and Luxembourg, which saw their AAA ratings sustained. The losers were Belgium, Austria and France, which were cut one grade to AA+. The biggest losers were Italy, Spain and Portugal, which were cut two grades to BBB+, three steps above junk. The hope was that France could maintain its AAA rating, but a single notch downgrade was not entirely unexpected. Still, it does jeopardize the AAA rating of the EFSF and the successor ESM, but we will need to see the ratings agencies make that determination later. What we can expect next are ratings downgrades to the banks of the affected nations, which typically follows an adjustment to the sovereign rating.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Jan 13 12 14:55 GMT
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A soft Italian debt sale ended an otherwise solid week for Euro area sovereign issuance. ECB President Draghi tentatively pointed to the positive impact of the ECB's 3-year cash injection. How much this is supporting bond purchases remains unclear and our Strategy team has shown how bond payments (coupons and redemptions) will outpace issuance in January. Either way today's auction undid some of the more positive tone in Euro area markets, reversing euro gains.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
Jan 13 12 14:44 GMT
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As the week began, the US dollar continued to strengthen on the back of the remarkably favour-able US labour market report for December, which was the latest in a recent string of upbeat economic news from the United States. At first, Europe could offer very little compared to the brightening economic outlook in the US. The meetings between Merkel, Sarkozy and Lagarde primarily drew attention to the situation in Greece, where new gaps have appeared in the country's finances. The publication of Germany's GDP data for full-year 2011 came as a negative surprise for the markets: the Federal Statistical Office calculated robust growth of 3.0% for 2011, but indicates that GDP would decline by “around ¼%” in the fourth quarter.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 13 12 14:36 GMT
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Inflation in China in December declined slightly to 4.1% y/y, hence easing for the fifth month in a row. A cut in the reserve requirements by the People's Bank of China is imminent.
The outcome of the Spanish government bond auction was strong, indicating relief in European bond markets.
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
Jan 09 12 01:44 GMT
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The first major central bank meetings of the year will tend to dominate market action over the week ahead with a particular focus on Thursday’s ECB meeting as it attempts to rescue peripheral economies from permanent recession, deflation and eventually default. The ECB under new President Draghi has made some important progress in reversing the massive policy mistakes made during 2011. The decision to raise interest rates was extraordinary to say the least and the central bank has reversed these increases with back-to-back cuts to 1.0%. The long-term repo operation has also been very important in helping to ease liquidity pressures.
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