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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Feb 17 12 15:27 GMT
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Weekly Focus: Nerves on Edge, But Brighter Outlook
Market Movers ahead
- Monday could render us wiser about the plight of Greece. We expect some kind of solution to be found, but a collapse remains a possibility.
- PMI numbers out of Europe will be an important signpost of the possible impact of the crisis on economic indicators and of the outlook for a return to positive GDP growth in Q1 12.
- We expect US data to signal slow recovery in the housing market.
- Swedish data will probably show a weakening of the labour market. Meanwhile, unemployment in Norway seems to be retreating.
Global Update
- A euro summit had to be cancelled, as Greece did not see eye to eye with the other euro members on austerity measures.
- The eurozone economy contracted by 0.3 % in Q4 11, but the eurozone might avoid a recession, given signs of a return to positive growth already in this quarter.
- At first glance, US retail sales and industrial production seemed on the low side, but the details looked more promising. The labour market continues to surprise on the upside.
- In Japan, Q4 11 GDP came out below expectations and the Japanese central bank looks ready to launch another round of large-scale quantitative monetary easing. • Sweden’s Riksbank cut policy rates and lowered its economic outlook but it still seems to have a too optimistic view on the Swedish economy and will probably have to reduce policy rates and forecasts again.
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Danske Bank
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