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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Feb 03 12 16:33 GMT
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Weekly Focus: The Clouds are Lifting a Bit
Market movers ahead
- Following a week of improved economic indicators, we are headed for a light data calendar, with consumer confidence the most interesting data in the US in the coming week.
- However, we expect a Greek PSI deal to be struck very soon, so we might know more about the losses that investors will suffer on their holdings of Greek debt as early as Monday.
- The ECB will probably take some comfort from the slightly brighter economic outlook but leave rates as they are.
- We expect inflation in China to have increased but only because of the Chinese New Year.
- Data out of Sweden will indicate whether GDP really slowed as fast in Q4 11 as indicators have so far suggested.
Global update
- PMIs from most of the world increased in January, signalling an improvement in global industry.
- For Europe, the numbers support our view that the sharpest fall in production in this recession happened in Q4 11 and that the European economies are on course for positive growth rates again in Q2 12.
- The US economy seems to be recovering, although at a rather moderate pace.
- China is no way near the hard landing that many had feared.
- Danish public finances looked dramatically better than expected, so Denmark now seems likely to comply with the 3% EMU budget deficit criterion in 2011.
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