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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.



IMM Positioning: EUR Shorts At Stretched Levels But Trend Intact Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jul 28 14 09:16 GMT
Speculators increased their short EUR positioning to the highest level since November 2012, in absolute terms. As of Tuesday 22 July, speculators were net short EUR 26.2% of open interest. Short EUR positioning has reached the 11 percentile, which indicates positioning is at stretched levels. Short EUR positioning has accelerated on the back of better US data and waning portfolio flows into the euro-zone. As such, recent EUR weakness reflects a combination of USD strength (net USD longs rose USD3.9bn on the week) and idiosyncratic EUR weakness
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USDCHF - Remains On The Offensive Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 28 14 01:39 GMT
USDCHF - With a second week of recovery higher occurring the past week, further upside is likely. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9100 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if broken it will aim at the 0.9250 level. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8900 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8842 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.
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EURUSD - Vulnerable, Targets Further Downside With Caution Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 28 14 01:38 GMT
EURUSD - Outlook for EUR remains lower following a bearish price extension the past week. Corrective may occur in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3000 level where a break will expose the 1.3350 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3300 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3250 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3650 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3700 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3750 level followed by the 1.3800 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
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USDCHF - Rallies, Eyes Further Upside Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 21 14 03:14 GMT
USDCHF - With a strong rally occurring the past week, further bullishness is expected in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9000 level where a break will aim at the 0.9050 level. Further out, a break will retarget the 0.9100 level where breather may occur and turn the pair lower but if broken it will turn focus on the 0.9150 level. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8900 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8850 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.
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EURUSD - Prints Negative Candle, Risk Builds On The Upside Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 21 14 03:13 GMT
EURUSD - Though closing lower the past week, the pair ability to reject downside price and print a rejection candle is suggestive of a recovery higher. Support lies at the 1.3490 level where a break will expose the 1.3450 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3400 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3350 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3650 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3700 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3750 level followed by the 1.3800 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
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EURUSD - Bear Threats Still Seen Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 14 14 00:28 GMT
EURUSD - Despite its marginal close higher at the end of the week, it continues to face further downside. Support lies at the 1.3500 level where a break will expose the 1.3450 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3400 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3350 level. On the downside, On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3700 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3750 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3800 level followed by the 1.3850 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the short term.
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USDCHF - Consolidates, Corrective Risk Seen Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 14 14 00:27 GMT
USDCHF - Although USDCHF failed to follow through on the back of its previous week gains, its recovery risk remains. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8855 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8800 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.9742 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8700 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8950 level where a break will aim at the 0.9000 level where a break will retarget the 0.9050 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if broken it will aim at the 0.9100 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.
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USDCHF - Recovers, Sets Up For More Upside Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 07 14 02:06 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF halting its weakness ad turning higher at the end of the week, further upside offensive is envisaged. This development leaves the pair strengthening further in the new week with eyes on the 0.9000 level where a break will aim at the 0.9050 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9050 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if broken it will aim at the 0.9100 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8855 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8800 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.9742 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8700 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.
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EURUSD - Threatens Further Downside Pressure Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 07 14 02:06 GMT
EURUSD - Outlook for EUR remains lower leaving further downside pressure on the cards in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3500 level where a break will expose the 1.3450 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3400 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3350 level. On the downside, On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3700 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3750 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3800 level followed by the 1.3850 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the short term.
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IMM Positioning: Speculators Turn Bearish On CHF Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 30 14 11:13 GMT
The IMM reports of recent weeks have shown considerable changes in noncommercial FX positioning. Friday’s report revealed the largest single weekly bearish CHF build in more than two years. Since mid-May, CHF positioning – measured as percentage of open interest – has fluctuated around zero, but with last week’s move CHF positioning has not been this bearish since June 2013 (see page 6). Although positioning still does not look stretched in a historical perspective (41st percentile), the change in CHF sentiment has markedly increased the sensitivity of EUR/CHF to the downside.
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