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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services |
Feb 06 12 07:51 GMT
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Dollar-Swiss was ranged this week between 0.9100-9250. The 21-Month-MA (currently at 0.9261) is holding well. While below this Resistance level, we see a threat on the charts of seeing a fall to 0.8800. Support is seen at 0.9075 and a strong break below this Support level would trigger this fall. On the upside we see series of Resistances in the broad 0.9300-500 region. Having said this the pair could continue to remain pressured on the downside. However, there are talks in the market that the SNB could intereve at anytime. This will have to be seen. With the absence of the SNB, we would be more biased on the downside for a test of 0.8900-8800.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Autochartist |
Feb 06 12 03:15 GMT
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GBP/JPY continues to advance inside the Uniform Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. Autochartist rates the overall Quality of this chart pattern at the 4 bar level which reflects the following values on the individual contributing Quality indicators: low Initial Trend (measured at the 2 bar level), significant Uniformity (7 bars) and average Clarity (5 bars).
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services |
Jan 30 12 10:36 GMT
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Dollar-Swiss fell sharply breaking below its important Support at 0.9300 and has closed below the 100-DMA (0.9154) last week. There is Support near 0.9075-50 region which includes the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 0.8567 (Oct-11) to 0.9584 (Jan-12). But the downside is open for a further fall to 0.9000-8900 or even lower. However, the market has started speculating for the SNB to intervene at any time. Having said this there are chances for the downside to be limited. We will have to wait and see. On the upside 0.9300-50 will be an important Resistance region to be watched and a strong rise past this Resistance will have to be seen to ease the downside pressure. As of now we do not have any immediate trade ideas on the pair. We will watch how the pair moves for a few sessions and then take trade calls accordingly.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 30 12 10:09 GMT
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USD longs extended before FOMC meeting: The latest IMM data, which cover the week ending last Tuesday, show a further build-up in aggregate USD longs ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement, reaching USD18.8bn. The unwinding of USD longs may thus explain the sharp USD sell-off in the wake of the surprisingly dovish statement. Short EUR positions also set a fresh record, and while some shorts are likely to have been washed out by the recent rise in EUR/USD, positioning likely still leaves directional risks to the upside.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jan 30 12 03:38 GMT
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EURUSD - Having rallied and broken the 1.3074 level and the 1.3197 level, EUR now looks to strengthen further with eyes on the 1.3375 level, its Dec 12'12 level. On further price extension, the pair should target the 1.3484 level, its Dec 05'2011 high and possibly higher towards its Dec 02'2011 high at 1.3547. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, on any pullback, the 1.3197 level will be targeted ahead of the 1.3074 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, if that level is taken out, further declines is expected towards the 1.2856/75 level, its Dec 29'2011 low/Jan 2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.2624 level where a loss will resume its medium term weakness and aim at the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective recovery tone as it looks to extend further bullish momentum.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Autochartist |
Jan 30 12 03:33 GMT
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HKD/JPY has recently completed the Flag chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 7 bar level which is the result of the strong Initial Trend (rated at the 10 bar level), low Uniformity (3 bars) and above average Clarity (6 bars). The completion of this chart pattern continues the predominant downtrend visible on the daily and the weekly HKD/JPY charts. More specifically, this Flag follows the preceding sharp downward price impulse (being the 'Flag-Pole' of this Flag, whose strength is reflected by the maximum Initial Trend value) from the strong level of resistance at the round price level 10.00. The top of this chart pattern (point B on the chart below) formed when the pair reversed down from the resistance level 10.0765 (identified previously by Autochartist, as is shown on the second Key Levels chart below). The pair is expected to fall further in the direction of the Forecast Area set between price levels 9.84 and 9.72.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 23 12 10:46 GMT
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Investors added marginally to EUR shorts: EUR/USD reached a 1.2624 low on 13 January and has since rebounded on improved risk sentiment and growing expectations of a Greek PSI deal. Nonetheless, investors still added marginally to short EUR positions in the week to 17 January - taking net positions to 53 percent of open interest. Short positions are likely to have been partly unwound since the IMM data was collected, but even decent short covering would still leave IMM positioning at odds with option market positioning. While investors covered by the IMM data remained very short the euro going into 2012, demand for EUR put options has fallen significantly on the option market - causing EUR/USD risk reversals to narrow. So how should we interpret this divergence? One explanation could be that the IMM is not a good proxy for overall positioning at the moment and that investors are not as short euro as reported. Another explanation could be that investors are more willing to add short euro positions in the spot and futures market than in the option market given the sticky spot price. Regardless of the explanation, the market is likely to remain quite short euro, which could allow for a further spot rebound towards 1.32 resistance should a Greek debt swap agreement be reached.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services |
Jan 23 12 09:36 GMT
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Dollar-Swiss fell sharply last week from its high of 0.9576 towards 0.9300 and is now trying to bounce back now. The 100-Week-MA (Currently at 0.9554) Resistance is continuing to restrict the upmove well and the pair has seen a lower weekly close for the second consecutive time. This leaves it pressured on the downside. 0.9380-400 will not be an important Resistance region to be watched and a failure to rise past this Resistance region would increase the chances of seeing a break below 0.9300 which can drag the pair further down towards 0.9200-150 during the week. Note the 55-DMA (currently at 0.9310) is an important Support level and a break below it would trigger a fall.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Autochartist |
Jan 23 12 02:41 GMT
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USD/NOK has recently completed the high Quality Up Channel chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 8 bar level which reflects the following values of the contributing Quality indicators: significant Initial Trend (rated at the 7 bar level) and near maximum Uniformity and Clarity (both rated at the 9 bar level). This chart pattern reverses the previous upward correction to the prevailing downtrend visible on the daily and the weekly USD/NOK charts.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 16 12 11:11 GMT
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Extreme euro positioning: Investors added to already record EUR shorts, which have now reached 53 percent of open interest. Extreme positioning usually implies a heightened risk of a spot correction, but we see only limited potential for a bigger EUR rebound in the short term. First of all, the IMM data may exaggerate overall market positioning, as EUR/USD option market skews have narrowed further and now trade near neutral levels. Secondly, eurozone event risks remain significant with the Greek PSI and potential action by the other rating agencies as key near-term risk factors. That said, investors are likely to be very short the euro – even if less so than indicated in the IMM data – and short positions therefore do not appear attractive in our view. We prefer to stay neutral for now.
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