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Forex Weekly Technical Reports

Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.



IMM Positioning: Long USD Bets Still In Stretched Territory Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | May 18 15 10:19 GMT
The USD index fell for the fifth consecutive week after Wednesday's disappointing retail sales and Friday's very weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The significant build in bullish dollar positions raises the vulnerability and sensitivity of the 'greenback' and the disappointing US data mean many of these positions have been unwound. Indeed, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission IMM positioning data show in the week to 12 May speculators cut their USD exposure for the seventh consecutive week, equalling the length of the long position reductions seen at end-Q1 14 (page 2). However, non-commercial USD positioning probably remains stretched even after the recent sell-off (at Tuesday's close, positioning was very elevated at the 95th percentile). This highlights the more persistent EUR/USD sensitivity to the upside when US data disappoints, as there is still potential for more unwinding of long USD positions.
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USDCHF - Closes Lower On Bearishness Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | May 18 15 01:48 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF closing lower the past week, the pair continues to face downside pressure into the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9070 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9000 level and then the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.8900 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level with a breach targeting the 0.9250 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9300 level. All in all, the pair retains its bearishness and remains biased to the downside in the medium term
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EURUSD - Maintains Upside Offensive Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | May 18 15 01:48 GMT
EURUSD- Having rallied to close above the 1.1390 level the past week, risk of further upside is likely in the new week. However, you should keep your eyes on the 1.1449 and the 1.1533 zone where strong resistance levels are located. Resistance is seen at the 1.1533 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1600 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1650 level where a break will expose the 1.1700 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1400 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1350 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1200 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1150 level. All in all, EUR faces recovery threats having rallied the past week.
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IMM Positioning: Still Room For Liquidation Of USD Longs Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | May 11 15 11:01 GMT
Aggregate USD positioning dropped last week, with USD33.2bn outstanding as of last Tuesday compared with a peak of above USD50bn late 2014. This suggests that USD positioning has come off the peaks seen earlier in the year when 'long USD' was one of the key global deflation trades at the start of the year. We do think, however, that the liquidation of USD longs may have further to run in coming weeks – not least if we are right in seeing US retail sales come in below expectations. But we maintain that USD strength will return on a 3-6M horizon, see FX Strategy: Deflation deceleration - an early warning for EUR/USD, 7 May 2015.
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USDCHF - Looks To Build On Recovery Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | May 11 15 02:41 GMT
USDCHF - With its two-day recovery on Thursday and Friday seeing the pair printing a rejection candle, we should see a further move higher in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9250 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9150 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9100 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.9350 level with a breach targeting the 0.9400 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if that level is taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9450 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term but could a recovery in the new week.
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EURUSD - Vulnerable On Corrective Threats Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | May 11 15 02:40 GMT
EURUSD - Having capped its strength at the 1.1390 level to close marginally lower the past week, corrective pullback threats are building up. Resistance is seen at the 1.1300 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1390 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1450 level where a break will expose the 1.1500 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1200 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1050 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1000 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0950 level. All in all, EUR faces corrective pullback threats having lost its upside momentum.
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IMM Positioning: Bullish USD Positions Back At September 2014 Levels Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | May 04 15 10:43 GMT
IMM positioning data released on Friday showed that the aggregate speculative positioning in the USD saw another week of long covering. Speculators have now unwound their exposure to the ‘greenback’ in five consecutive weeks, sending positioning to the least bullish level since September 2014. Last week’s change in positioning was the third-largest single-week long covering in 2015 and was driven primarily by another week of JPY short covering (see next paragraph) and notably the largest EUR short covering in 2015. Indeed, EUR/USD has bounced sharply in recent weeks and, while the change in positioning does reflect disappointing US data, the move is likely to be exaggerated by the past year’s persistent downward trend in EUR/USD, which sent USD bullish positions to an historical high. The stretched positioning built up high USD sensitivity to the downside and, together with a general market correction (equities, bonds), investors are now trying to protect profit on their short EUR/USD exposure. However, we do think that the patience among investors will return as the talk of the first Fed hike returns – we still expect a take-off in September – which should send EUR/USD lower and, in our view, below parity in 6M.
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USDCHF - Sells Off On Loss Of Upside Momentum Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | May 04 15 01:50 GMT
USDCHF - Having USDCHF declined strongly the past week, it could extend that weakness in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9250 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9150 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9100 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.9400 level with a breach targeting the 0.9450 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9500 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term
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EURUSD - Bullish With Caution Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | May 04 15 01:49 GMT
EURUSD - Although EUR may be biased to the upside on the weekly chart, its price action on the daily chart is suggestive of a move lower on correction in the new week. This development leaves risk lower in the new week. Resistance is seen at the 1.1289 level with a cut through here opening the door for more downside towards the 1.1350 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1400 level where a break will expose the 1.1450 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1100 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1050 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1000 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0950 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on recovery but with caution.
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USDCHF - Vulnerable, Risk Points Lower Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Apr 27 15 02:08 GMT
USDCHF - With a reversal of almost all of its past week gains seen at the end of the week to close slightly higher, USDCHF now faces the risk of a move lower in the new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9500 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9450 level and then the 0.9386 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9300 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 0.9600 level with a breach targeting the 0.9650 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9700 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside.
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