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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.



IMM Positioning: Investors Add Net Shorts In EUR And JPY Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Sep 01 14 09:46 GMT
IMM data released last Friday showed that investors in the week to 26 August added considerable net short positions in EUR and JPY. The move in EUR has sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency to the 5th percentile – the most bearish level since November 2012. In the same way the build in net JPY shorts has sent speculative JPY positioning to the 3rd percentile. In sum, positioning suggests a very high sensitivity of the two currencies to the upside. Therefore, should the ECB disappoint on Thursday, we see potential for a bounce in EUR/USD. However, fundamentally we still expect EUR/USD to edge lower, primarily driven by diverging monetary policy. In addition, the case for a short-term stronger USD has strengthened in recent weeks in light of the strong performance of USD-denominated assets.
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USDCHF - Faces Corrective Pullback Risk Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 01 14 01:52 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF unable to follow through higher on the back of its previous week, it faces the risk of a pullback in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level where a break will aim at the 0.9250 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9300 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9150 level with a break targeting the 0.9100 level and then the 0.9050 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9000 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term though facing corrective risk.
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EURUSD - Susceptible, Risk Points Lower Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 01 14 01:51 GMT
EURUSD - With a continuation of its previous week weakness seen the past week, further downside pressure is envisaged in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3100 level where a break will expose the 1.3050 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3000 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.2950 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3200 level where a break will aim at the 1.3250 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3300 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3350 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term
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IMM Positioning: Sharp Reduction In CAD Longs Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Aug 25 14 10:18 GMT
IMM data released last Friday reveal that investors have returned to adding bearish EUR positions builds. The bearish EUR sentiment has sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency to the 6th percentile – the most bearish level since November 2012. The stretched positioning indicates a very high sensitivity of EUR to positive news out of the euro-zone. Fundamentally, we still expect EUR/USD to edge lower but emphasise that positioning poses a barrier for rapid moves lower and the downtrend will consequently be gradual.
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USDCHF - Bullish, Targets Further Upside Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 25 14 01:49 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF reversing its two-week losses to close higher the past week, further upside is likely in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9156 level where a break will aim at the 0.9180 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9100 level with a break targeting the 0.9050 level and then the 0.9000 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside.
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EURUSD - Vulnerable But With Caution Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 25 14 01:48 GMT
EURUSD - With further price extension happening the past week, additional decline is likely in the new week. However, we may see a recovery higher on correction. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3332 level where a break will aim at the 1.3450 level where a break will target the 1.3500 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3550 level. Followed by the 1.3600 level and then the 1.3650 level. Support lies at the 1.3200 level where a break will expose the 1.3150 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3100 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3050 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
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IMM Positioning: Increase In Geopolitical Risks Reflected In Data Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Aug 18 14 09:18 GMT
IMM data released last Friday revealed that investors for the first time in five weeks added net EUR longs. From a historical perspective, however, the move was insignificant and speculative EUR positioning therefore remains in stretched short territory. Note that we this morning sent out a new FX Forecast Update, in which we argue that monetary policy divergence and portfolio flows will drive EUR/USD lower. We emphasise that positioning poses a barrier for rapid moves lower and that the downtrend will be gradual.
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USDCHF - Declines On Corrective Pullback Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 18 14 02:08 GMT
USDCHF - With the pair weakening on corrective decline the past week, further bearishness is likely in the new week. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9000 level with a break targeting the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8900 level and then the 0.8842 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9114 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on pullback risks
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IMM Positioning: Positioning Limits EUR/USD Downside Risk Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Aug 11 14 09:21 GMT
IMM data released last Friday revealed yet another week of net EUR short builds, sending non-commercial positioning to the most bearish levels since November 2012. This week’s move probably reflects speculation about a dovish Draghi at the August ECB meeting as well as the continuation of solid figures out of the US. The total residual positioning in USD continues to looks very stretched at the most bullish levels since July 2013. This week’s move in speculative USD positioning was primarily driven by speculators’ bearish builds in EUR and JPY (see page 2). In sum, positioning has over the past three weeks significantly limited the short-run downside risk in EUR/USD. Having said that, we still expect EUR/USD to gradually edge lower, primarily driven by a divergence in relative monetary policy.
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USDCHF - Sets Up For Corrective Pullback Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 11 14 02:30 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF failing at the 0.9114 level and closing lower on a rejection candle formation, it faces downside risk in the new week. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9000 level with a break targeting the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8900 level and then the 0.8842 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9114 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on pullback risks
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