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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.



IMM Positioning: Profit Taking In EUR And JPY Shorts While GBP Long Builds Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Sep 15 14 09:08 GMT
IMM data released last Friday revealed that investors slashed net EUR shorts for the first time in four weeks. The move is probably a reflection of profit taking in light of the recent EUR/USD move lower sparked by the surprising ECB rate cut.
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USDCHF - Vulnerable On Corrective Pullback Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 15 14 02:08 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF closing on a rejection candle formation (shooting star), it faces the risk of a pullback in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9400 level where a break will aim at the 0.9450 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9500 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9300 level with a break targeting the 0.9250 level and then the 0.9200 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9150 level. A cut through here will target the 0.9100 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term but faces a corrective pullback risk. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term but faces a corrective pullback risk
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EURUSD - Sets Up To Recovery Higher On Correction Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 15 14 02:07 GMT
EURUSD - With EUR turning off the 1.2859 level to close with a rejection candle the past week, risk of a recovery higher is now envisaged. Support lies at the 1.2800 level where a break will expose the 1.2750 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.2870 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.2650 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3000 level where a break will aim at the 1.3050 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3100 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3150 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term but faces a recovery risk.
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IMM Positioning: Short EUR Positioning Now At 2012 Summer Levels Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Sep 08 14 09:22 GMT
IMM data released last Friday revealed that investors for the third consecutive week added bearish EUR builds. The move in the EUR has sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency to the 4th percentile – the most bearish level since Draghi's famous ‘Whatever it takes' speech in July 2012. This week's bearish build reflects speculations of a dovish Draghi at the ECB meeting on 4 September and as we now know, Draghi took markets by surprise by cutting both the repo and the deposit rate (see ECB cuts policy rates further, 4 September). This suggests that the sensitivity of the single currency to the upside has increased more than what this week's report suggests. Having said that, we believe that there is much more than rate expectations behind the EUR weakness and the USD strength and we believe that the bearish EUR/USD sentiment is currently very resilient. This was illustrated on Friday when EUR/USD barely bounced, even though the US non-farm payroll report came out significantly weaker than expected (see Very disappointing job report – too bad to be true, 5 September). We, therefore, still expect EUR/USD to gradually edge lower in the coming weeks despite the stretched positioning.
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USDCHF - Rallies, Set To Extend Strength Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 08 14 00:52 GMT
USDCHF - With a sharp rally seeing USDCHF closing higher the past week, further bullishness is envisaged in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9350 level where a break will aim at the 0.9400 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9450 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out the 0.9500 level will be aimed at. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9250 level with a break targeting the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9150 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9100 level. A cut through here will target the 0.9050 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term
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EURUSD - Sets Up For More Decline Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 08 14 00:52 GMT
EURUSD - With a sharp sell off occurring the past week, further bearishness is envisaged. We may see corrective recovery in the new week. Support lies at the 1.2900 level where a break will expose the 1.2850 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.2800 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.2750 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3000 level where a break will aim at the 1.3050 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3100 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3150 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term
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IMM Positioning: Investors Add Net Shorts In EUR And JPY Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Sep 01 14 09:46 GMT
IMM data released last Friday showed that investors in the week to 26 August added considerable net short positions in EUR and JPY. The move in EUR has sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency to the 5th percentile – the most bearish level since November 2012. In the same way the build in net JPY shorts has sent speculative JPY positioning to the 3rd percentile. In sum, positioning suggests a very high sensitivity of the two currencies to the upside. Therefore, should the ECB disappoint on Thursday, we see potential for a bounce in EUR/USD. However, fundamentally we still expect EUR/USD to edge lower, primarily driven by diverging monetary policy. In addition, the case for a short-term stronger USD has strengthened in recent weeks in light of the strong performance of USD-denominated assets.
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USDCHF - Faces Corrective Pullback Risk Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 01 14 01:52 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF unable to follow through higher on the back of its previous week, it faces the risk of a pullback in the new week. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level where a break will aim at the 0.9250 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9300 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9150 level with a break targeting the 0.9100 level and then the 0.9050 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9000 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside in the medium term though facing corrective risk.
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EURUSD - Susceptible, Risk Points Lower Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Sep 01 14 01:51 GMT
EURUSD - With a continuation of its previous week weakness seen the past week, further downside pressure is envisaged in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3100 level where a break will expose the 1.3050 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3000 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.2950 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3200 level where a break will aim at the 1.3250 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3300 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3350 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term
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IMM Positioning: Sharp Reduction In CAD Longs Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Aug 25 14 10:18 GMT
IMM data released last Friday reveal that investors have returned to adding bearish EUR positions builds. The bearish EUR sentiment has sent non-commercial positioning in the single currency to the 6th percentile – the most bearish level since November 2012. The stretched positioning indicates a very high sensitivity of EUR to positive news out of the euro-zone. Fundamentally, we still expect EUR/USD to edge lower but emphasise that positioning poses a barrier for rapid moves lower and the downtrend will consequently be gradual.
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