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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.



IMM Positioning: Still Decent Room For USD Longs To Be Added Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 29 15 07:59 GMT
Investors on the whole became more bearish on both EUR and JPY in the week ending 23 June. Notably, net EUR positioning is now back in stretched short territory again – JPY still a little way from being stretched short on our metrics. The heightened uncertainty around Greece heading into this week suggests however that a cross such as EUR/JPY will most likely be in for a sell-off despite the already stretched positioning in this direction.
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USDCHF - Reverses Losses, Eyes Further Upside With Warning Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jun 29 15 01:47 GMT
USDCHF - Having reversed its previous week losses the risk of a move further higher is envisaged in the new week. Resistance resides at the 0.9428 level with a breach targeting the 0.9500 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9550 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9250 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9150 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9100 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on further correction.
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EURUSD - Risk Turns Lower Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jun 29 15 01:46 GMT
EURUSD - With EUR taking back its previous week gains to close lower last week, further weakness is envisaged. However, we may see a correction higher of the mentioned declines in the new week. Resistance is seen at the 1.1250 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1300 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1350 level where a break will expose the 1.1400 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1100 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1050 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1000 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.0950 level. All in all, EUR faces downside threats in the medium term.
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IMM Positioning: Bearish EUR Positions Slashed Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 22 15 08:04 GMT
IMM positioning data released Friday show that speculators continue to unwind their bearish EUR positions. While short EUR exposure has been reduced in nine out of the last eleven weeks, the last two weeks' change in positioning marks the largest fortnight unwinding of short EUR positions since September 2013 (when the Fed surprised markets by not introducing a tapering programme). The shift in positioning has been sparked by a series of factors leading to higher EUR rates but noteworthy the change also comes amid a souring of news with respect to the Greek negotiations. In our view, this suggests that FX markets price in a high probability of an agreement being reached at today's Euro Summit on Greece. This is also consistent with our short-term regression models indicating that the Greek risk premium currently embedded in EUR/USD is significantly smaller than in 2011/2012. While it remains our base case that a deal is reached, the fact that speculative EUR positioning has moved to the least bearish level in a year leaves a considerable downside potential should negotiations break down.
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USDCHF - Extends Weakness Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jun 22 15 02:17 GMT
USDCHF - With the pair declining further the past week, it now looks to see more weakness in the new week. However, beware of a correction. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9100 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9050 level and then the 0.9000 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9000 level. Resistance resides at the 0.9250 level with a breach targeting the 0.9300 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9350 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on further correction.
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EURUSD - Retains Upside Bias But With Caution Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jun 22 15 02:15 GMT
EURUSD - EUR may have closed higher the past week but with caution as pullback threats could occur. Resistance is seen at the 1.1450 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1500 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1550 level where a break will expose the 1.1600 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1250 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1200 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1150 level. All in all, EUR faces downside threats in the medium term.
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IMM Positioning: Very Significant EUR Short-Covering Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 15 15 08:35 GMT
IMM positioning data released Friday revealed the largest single-week EUR shortcovering since March 2014, which has sent non-commercial EUR positioning to the least bearish level in 2015 (see page 3). The move reflects the substantial move higher in euro-zone rates following the higher-than-expected core inflation figures, lowerthan- expected May ECB PSPP figures, Draghi’s comment that markets should expect higher future volatility and finally poor liquidity. While non-commercial EUR positioning is still in historically stretched territory, the recent change in positioning opens up for more downside potential from relative rates (we still expect a September Fed hike); even more so in an environment where Greece headlines have turned sour.
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USDCHF - Risk Continues To Point Lower Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jun 15 15 02:34 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF closing further lower the past week, it faces additional downside pressure. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9200 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness to occur towards the 0.9150 level and then the 0.9100 level. A cut through here will open the door for additional weakness towards the 0.9050 level. Resistance resides at the 0.9400 level with a breach targeting the 0.9450 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if taken out, expect a push higher towards the 0.9500 level. Conversely, All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on correction.
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EURUSD - Retains Upside Bias Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jun 15 15 02:26 GMT
EURUSD - EUR closed higher for a second week in a row leaving risk of more upside on the cards. Resistance is seen at the 1.1350 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1400 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1450 level where a break will expose the 1.1500 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1200 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1250 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1150 level with a turn below that level targeting the 1.1100 level. All in all, EUR faces downside threats in the medium term.
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IMM Positioning: JPY Shorts Limit USD/JPY Upside Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jun 08 15 10:33 GMT
Last week's IMM positioning data showed that some EUR shorts were covered ahead of the ECB meeting as optimism over Greece grew early last week. Judging from price action in EUR crosses, this likely continued after Draghi's relatively harsh comments that volatility is to be accepted and that there is currently no need to add to the QE scheme.
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