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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.



IMM Positioning: Increase In Geopolitical Risks Reflected In Data Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Aug 18 14 09:18 GMT
IMM data released last Friday revealed that investors for the first time in five weeks added net EUR longs. From a historical perspective, however, the move was insignificant and speculative EUR positioning therefore remains in stretched short territory. Note that we this morning sent out a new FX Forecast Update, in which we argue that monetary policy divergence and portfolio flows will drive EUR/USD lower. We emphasise that positioning poses a barrier for rapid moves lower and that the downtrend will be gradual.
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USDCHF - Declines On Corrective Pullback Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 18 14 02:08 GMT
USDCHF - With the pair weakening on corrective decline the past week, further bearishness is likely in the new week. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9000 level with a break targeting the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8900 level and then the 0.8842 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9114 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on pullback risks
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IMM Positioning: Positioning Limits EUR/USD Downside Risk Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Aug 11 14 09:21 GMT
IMM data released last Friday revealed yet another week of net EUR short builds, sending non-commercial positioning to the most bearish levels since November 2012. This week’s move probably reflects speculation about a dovish Draghi at the August ECB meeting as well as the continuation of solid figures out of the US. The total residual positioning in USD continues to looks very stretched at the most bullish levels since July 2013. This week’s move in speculative USD positioning was primarily driven by speculators’ bearish builds in EUR and JPY (see page 2). In sum, positioning has over the past three weeks significantly limited the short-run downside risk in EUR/USD. Having said that, we still expect EUR/USD to gradually edge lower, primarily driven by a divergence in relative monetary policy.
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USDCHF - Sets Up For Corrective Pullback Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 11 14 02:30 GMT
USDCHF - With USDCHF failing at the 0.9114 level and closing lower on a rejection candle formation, it faces downside risk in the new week. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9000 level with a break targeting the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8950 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8900 level and then the 0.8842 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9114 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on pullback risks
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EURUSD - Recovery Risk Builds Up Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 11 14 02:29 GMT
EURUSD - With EUR closing marginally lower with a rejection candle the past week, further corrective recovery is likely in the days ahead. On the upside, resistance lies at the 13450 level where a break will aim at the 1.3500 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3550 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3600 level followed by the 1.3650 level. Support lies at the 1.3366 level where a break will expose the 1.3300 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3250 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3200 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
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USDCHF - Further Pullback Risk Builds Up Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 04 14 01:48 GMT
USDCHF - With corrective weakness triggered on the daily chart and a higher ,level rejection candle formed on the weekly chart, we expect price weakness in the days ahead. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9000 level with a break targeting the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8900 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8842 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9100 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside on pullback risks
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EURUSD - Prepares To Recover Higher Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Aug 04 14 01:47 GMT
EURUSD - With EUR halting its broader weakness to close flat the past week, it faces the risk of further recovery higher. If a follow-through higher on the back of its Friday gain occurs, further bullish offensive is likely in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3366 level where a break will expose the 1.3300 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3250 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3200 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3500 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3550 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3600 level followed by the 1.3650 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
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IMM Positioning: EUR Shorts At Stretched Levels But Trend Intact Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by Danske Bank | Jul 28 14 09:16 GMT
Speculators increased their short EUR positioning to the highest level since November 2012, in absolute terms. As of Tuesday 22 July, speculators were net short EUR 26.2% of open interest. Short EUR positioning has reached the 11 percentile, which indicates positioning is at stretched levels. Short EUR positioning has accelerated on the back of better US data and waning portfolio flows into the euro-zone. As such, recent EUR weakness reflects a combination of USD strength (net USD longs rose USD3.9bn on the week) and idiosyncratic EUR weakness
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USDCHF - Remains On The Offensive Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 28 14 01:39 GMT
USDCHF - With a second week of recovery higher occurring the past week, further upside is likely. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9100 level where a break will aim at the 0.9150 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level. A breather may occur here and turn the pair lower but if broken it will aim at the 0.9250 level. On the downside, support lies at the 0.8950 level. A cut through here will target the 0.8900 level where a violation will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.8842 level. A turn below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.8800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside on recovery.
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EURUSD - Vulnerable, Targets Further Downside With Caution Print E-mail
Weekly Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Jul 28 14 01:38 GMT
EURUSD - Outlook for EUR remains lower following a bearish price extension the past week. Corrective may occur in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3000 level where a break will expose the 1.3350 level. Below here will pave the way for a move lower towards the 1.3300 level. If this continues, expect further downside to occur towards the 1.3250 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3650 level, its psycho level followed by the 1.3700 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3750 level followed by the 1.3800 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
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