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Forex Weekly Technical Reports
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Technical analysis is a method of forecasting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician. The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services |
Apr 23 12 07:31 GMT
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Dollar-Swiss failed to rise past its important Resistance near 0.9250 and fell sharply from its high of 0.9251 to close lower for the week at 0.9085. Important to note is that after its fall from 0.9251, Dollar-Swiss did not break above 0.9200. This could leave the pair pressured on the downside in the coming days. 0.9060-40 region and then 0.9000 are the important Supports to be watched and a break below 0.9000 can take it down towards 0.8920-00. Remember, since the Resistance at 0.9245 is holding well, there is even a threat of seeing a sharp fall to 0.8750 on the downside. On the upside we see good Resistance in 0.9180-9200 region and rallies to this Resistance region can be sold.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 16 12 08:55 GMT
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Long USD positions at highest since 2010: Aggregate long USD positions were built to USD20bn in a week where the DXY dollar index continued higher. Long USD positions were added across the board but not least against MXN, AUD, GBP and EUR. The dollar is currently seeing support from a declining oil price and rising European sovereign spreads. We could see the dollar overshoot further over the coming weeks.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 10 12 11:31 GMT
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Investors remain very short JPY: Net short positions were scaled back slightly to 43 percent of open interest, but remain near 2 standard deviations from the historical average. With the BoJ on hold for now, US yields moving lower on the back of Friday’s disappointing employment report, and Spanish sovereign spreads widening, JPY support has returned. We see potential for short JPY positions to be scaled back further during April, which could trigger a move back to and potentially below 80 in USD/JPY. Consider buying JPY spot against USD or EUR as a short-term correction trade.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services |
Apr 09 12 11:25 GMT
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Cable failed to break above its Resistance at 1.6060 and fell sharply last week to close slightly higher above its 200-DMA (1.5842). 1.5800 will be a very important Support level to be watched. 1.5765 is the next significant Trendline Support seen on the weekly chart. A strong break below these Supports can take the pair further down towards 1.5650-00 in the coming week. 1.5635-00 is a strong Support region seen on the downside and sharp fall to this region can be bought. However, the chances of this immediate Support near 1.5800 region is very high as we see cluster of Supports near this level. 1.5805 is the 55-DMA, 1.5803 is the 8-Month-MA and 1.5800 is the 100-Week-MA. A bounce back from this Support level will need to see a strong rise past 1.5950 to gain further upside strength. 1.6060 will continue to remain as an important Resistance level on the upside and a strong break/close above this level is required to take the pair further up towards 1.6300-350-400. We will have to wait and see whether 1.5800 holds or breaks.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 02 12 10:24 GMT
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Spot correction was used to add to JPY shorts: As the bond market sell-off stalled, so did the JPY sell-off and USD/JPY temporarily corrected back towards 82 prior to the collection of IMM data. However, rather than unwinding short JPY positions, it appears that investors have used the correction as an opportunity to add to the short JPY trade. Net short JPY positions now stand at 47% of open interest, which is almost 2 sigma below the historical average. The last two times short JPY positioning was this stretched were in April 2011 and May 2010. On both occasions, this marked a turning point in positioning and a return to the structural JPY appreciation trend. Will we witness the same this time around? There certainly appears strong conviction behind the JPY sell-off but if bond yields fail to rise again or the Bank of Japan declines to ease monetary policy further, the JPY sell-off should, in our view, stall again as the potential for sustained speculative selling has become more exhausted.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Apr 02 12 02:12 GMT
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EURUSD - With a third week of upside gains occurring the past week, further bull pressure is expected towards the 1.3483 level. A breach will pave the way for a move further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, a violation of the 1.3547 level will target its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.3003 level, its Mar’2012 low followed by the 1.2975 level. An eventual break of here if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low . Further down, support lies at the 1.2620 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further offensive
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Apr 02 12 02:10 GMT
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GBPJPY – With the cross reversing its previous week gains to close higher the past week, the risk is for GBPJPY to strengthen further in the new week. In such a case, the 135.09 level will be targeted with a violation of there turning attention to the 136.97 level and subsequently, its April’2011 high at 139.99. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at 130.08 level, Mar 02’2012 high where a breather may occur and turn the cross back up. However, if this fails to materialize, further weakness should follow towards the 126.53 level. Further down, support lies at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside having reversed its recent corrective weakness.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mar 26 12 08:56 GMT
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JPY shorts scaled back slightly: For the first time since early January, short JPY positions were scaled back – taking net short positions from 22% to 19% of open interest. This coincided with a peak in USD/JPY, which failed to break above 84 and has since moved back towards 82. The key driver has probably been relative rates, as the 10Y US Treasury yield failed to break above its October high and the bond market sell-off has stalled for now. Without support from relative interest rates, we doubt investors will hold on to significant short JPY positions – especially as the JPY selloff looks overdone on our short-term financial models. Consider short USD/JPY as a short-term trade – but look to exit if the bond market sell-off gains momentum again.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Kshitij Consultancy Services |
Mar 26 12 08:34 GMT
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Dollar-Swiss traded sideways last week. Although the immediate outlook seems to be mixed, our bias remains bearish as we see good Resistance in 0.9150-200 region. A test of 0.9000-0.8975 is possible in the coming week. A strong break below 0.8975 can take the pair further down towards 0.8850-30. Rallies to 0.9150-200 can be sold. Only a strong break/close above 0.9200 will ease the downside pressure and bring in bullishness to take the pair up towards 0.9350+ levels.
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Mar 26 12 07:29 GMT
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EURUSD - The pair closed higher for a second week in a row since halting its recent declines. However, it will have to set a foothold above the 1.3288 level to convince the market of further recovery. If this is confirmed, further upside offensive could develop towards the 1.3483 level. A breach will pave the way for move further higher towards its Dec 02'2011 high at 1.3547 where a violation will target its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. Conversely, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.3003 level traded the past week followed by the 1.2975 level. An eventual break if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23'2011 low . Further down, support lies at the 1.2620 level. All in all, EUR remains vulnerable to the downside though halting its weakness
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