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Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Westpac Institutional Bank |
Dec 23 10 02:12 GMT
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The US data was weaker across the board today, though it did not impact sentiment. The 3rd and fi nal revision to Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, below expectations for a bigger upward revision to 2.8%. Existing home sales “only” rose 5.6% in November, shy of consensus for a 7.1% gain. The US MBA's mortgage market index slipped 18.6% last week, led lower by a sharp fall in refi nancing applications in the wake of higher US mortgage rates. The Fed's Plosser sounded upbeat noting his confi dence in the recovery's sustainability has increased and that he is not concerned about defl ation. The S&P500 is currently up 0.2% while gold is steady at $1325.30/oz and crude oil is up 70c to $90.55/bbl.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Forex.com |
Dec 23 10 02:02 GMT
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The U.S. pared losses after trading lower earlier in the session. Gains in the euro following the reported pledge by China to support the Euro zone were not sustained as EUR/USD fell back towards its 200-day sma and is currently trading around 1.3095. Key economic data out of the U.S. mostly disappointed. Third quarter final GDP was revised slightly higher from the prior estimate of 2.5% showing the economy expanded 2.6%, however this was lower than the 2.8% growth the market was looking for. 3Q personal consumption missed expectations of 2.9% with a disappointing print of 2.4% (prior 2.8%). November US existing home sales was a negative surprise showing sales of 4.68M vs. expected 4.75M (prior 4.43M) for a MoM change of 5.6%. The only bright spot in the data was a better than forecast October house price index that rose +0.7% while the market was anticipating a decline of -0.2% (prior -1.2%).
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Dec 22 10 17:03 GMT
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Existing home sales increased by 5.6% in November to 4.68 million, below market expectations for a 7.1% gain. Single-family sales, which account for almost 90% of total home sales, advanced 6.7% on the month. On the other hand, condo and co-op sales recorded a 1.9% drop during November.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Dec 22 10 16:02 GMT
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U.S. existing home sales rose 5.6% in November to 4.68 million annualized units, thereby more than retracing the 2.2% drop to 4.43 million in the previous month. The increase was slightly below market expectations for sales to rise to 4.75 million in November. Home prices rose for the first time in three months on a year-over-year basis, inching up 0.4% from November 2009 following 0.9% and 2.5% drops in October and September, respectively.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Dec 22 10 15:59 GMT
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The third, and final, estimate of third-quarter 2010 GDP saw the growth rate revised up once again although by only a marginal 0.1 percentage point (pp) to 2.6% from the second, or preliminary, estimate of 2.5%. Growth in the third quarter was initially estimated at 2.0% in the advance report. Expectations were for a more significant upward revision to 2.8%. The revised third-quarter increase represents a significant strengthening from a second-quarter GDP increase of 1.7%. Growth in the economy started the year rising by a generally robust 3.7%.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Interactive Brokers |
Dec 22 10 15:56 GMT
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Investors don't seem to be driving markets too far in either direction and after little by way of surprise to a report showing the pace of U.S. output, traders have little impetus to push much further. Yields still appear elevated after a 40 basis point surge since politicians agreed an extension for tax cuts. Curve movement remains limited although the weight of warnings from credit ratings agencies over possible further downgrades for European sovereigns is pushing core German yields down again.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Forex.com |
Dec 22 10 13:17 GMT
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The greenback traded softer against most currencies ahead of key economic data out of the U.S. today and the euro recovered on reports that China would commit to purchasing 4-5 billion euros of Portuguese debt. EUR/USD tested the 200-day sma and has since traded higher – the pair is currently trading around 1.3140.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Interactive Brokers |
Dec 22 10 13:15 GMT
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Wednesday brings another reprieve for the euro after reaching a three-week low on Tuesday as sentiment flopped with traders giving up their posts for the year. The Financial Times claims that China has assured European officials that it will take further action to support European stabilization efforts, which are assumed to be further purchases of higher-yielding government bonds. With two-way trade flows of $434 billion in the first 11 months of the year, the EU represents China's largest export market and appears eager to defend its established trading interests.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Trade The News |
Dec 22 10 11:25 GMT
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Safe havens flows continue to be the main factor in FX price action. The EUR/CHF continued to act as the barometer of Euro sentiment as the pair consistently hits fresh all-time lows. The USD/CHF is close to all-time lows of 0.9461 as the CHF currencies continued to reflect concerns over the European economic stability and the distressed debt scenario.
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Dec 22 10 10:54 GMT
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The Minutes are not expected to reveal any significant news as the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to still show a split 7-1-1. Economic reports have been mixed with a tilt to the upside in recent months and this is likely to be acknowledge, though the need for accomodative monetary policy will also be stressed. Inflation remains disturbingly high as it reaccelerated to 3.3% in November from 3.1% a couple of months ago.
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