FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 1.0838/40...Watch Support at 1.0835

R: 1.0915-53 / 1.1002-20
S: 1.0835 / 1.0805 / 1.0760

Dollar-Swiss has come off since the morning. The overall trend seems to be "ranged between 1.10-06". Within that, there is a crucial Support at 1.0835. Should that break, the market might fall more sharply towards 1.0803 (projected Max Low for the Day) and 1.0750. If and while the Support at 1.0835 holds, a rally back towards 1.0900-0950 might be seen.

Holding:

• USD 10K Long at 1.0860, SL 1.0800, TP 1.0950. As soon as the market trades 1.0900 hereafter, bring SL up to 1.0860.

Cable GBP-USD @ 1.6488/91...Betting on a range

R: 1.6570 / 1.6606
S: 1.6420-10 / 1.6370-50

The Pound has risen further since the morning, after an intra-day dip to 1.6375, continuing the rally from yesterday's low near 1.6235. Overall, it is ranged between 1.62-66 (maybe 1.6180-6680) for the last several days and is likely to remain ranged for the rest of the day.

In the bigger picture, there is Support at 1.6435 and Resistance at 1.6820, the latter being the 50% retracement of the fall from 2.0160 (Jul-08) to 1.3503 (Jan-09). If the Resistance at 1.6820 is broken, however, a further rise towards 1.70+ can take place.

Intra-day, while the Resistance at 1.6600-80 holds, a profit-booking fall back towards 1.64, or lower, might be seen.

Limit Sell Order:

• Sell GBP 10K at 1.6600, SL 1.6690, TP 1.6300

Aussie AUD-USD @ 0.8068/74...Watch Resistance at 0.8080

R: 0.8080 / 0.8180-87
S: 0.8030-20 / 0.7985 / 0.7925

As mentioned in the morning, there is an important Resistance at 0.8080 today, which has held so far during the day. If and while it holds, a dip back towards 0.8000, or even 0.7950, might be seen.

In case of a break above 0.8080-8100, the Aussie may move up further towards 0.8180-87, the latter being the projected Max High for the Day.

In the bigger picture, the Aussie has been trending higher since the low of 0.6285 seen in March, earlier this year. There is Support at 0.7788 within this uptrend, as can be seen on the Weekly Candle on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle

Thus, in the bigger picture, while the Aussie remains above 0.7785, there might be chances of a further rise towards 0.82.

Kshitij Consultancy Service
http://www.fxthoughts.com

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These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.