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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by GCI Financial |
Jul 03 09 16:15 GMT |
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Liquidity was light ahead of the long Independence Day holiday weekend. The European Central Bank voted yesterday to keep monetary policy unchanged and ECB President Trichet's remarks indicate interest rates may be on hold for some time in the eurozone. Commercial banks' overnight deposits at the ECB rose to a new 5 ½-month high overnight as banks hoarded most of last week's injection of liquidity by the ECB that amounted to nearly €500 billion. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
Jul 03 09 16:11 GMT |
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The US morning saw a limited range of price action due to the Independence Day holiday. The EUR/USD consolidated around the 1.4000 level. The CHF did see a bit more action as the SNB reportedly 'check rates' to remind the market of its intent to maintain a soft Swiss currency. EUR/CHF tested the 1.5250 level on the renewed jitters of additional currency intervention but drifted back below the 1.52 handle as no evidence was confirmed of any SNB action. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group |
Jul 03 09 15:14 GMT |
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The USD has a quiet overnight session and as could be expected volumes were exceptionally light. The markets are closed in the US today for the independence holiday and the only FX market active is the European market which will be closing shortly ending the week. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
Jul 03 09 14:06 GMT |
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Trading conditions will be subdued on Friday with US markets closed for a holiday. There will be the risk of erratic trading, although the more likely outcome is that narrow ranges will prevail. Risk appetite is liable to be slightly weaker following the US payroll report and this could trigger some further defensive dollar demand, especially if global equity markets continue to weaken. The US currency will find it difficult to strengthen through the 1.39 region against the Euro with underlying dollar sentiment still subdued. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Jul 03 09 13:40 GMT |
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Overall, the dollar lost a few points during the first part of the session, but during European trade the whole currency market started moving side-ways. The only exception was the pound, which shed every pip gained earlier in the day throughout the European session. Ahead, the market is expected to retain a weak momentum ahead of the closed U.S. session. Few pairs have been able to move anywhere decisively this week. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Jul 03 09 13:37 GMT |
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It is indeed a pleasant end for the U.K.'s week, with the final major clue from the second quarter assuring that the headwinds are easing, and the contraction has slowed in the three months running to Jun; offsetting the abysmal downside revision to the first quarter's contraction, the deepest in almost half-a-century. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Jul 03 09 13:10 GMT |
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The worst economic recession since resulting from the credit crisis is still showing its negative impact on different sectors of the economy as indicated by the PMI indicator. The euro zone released today its PMI services for June coming in at 44.7, showing that contraction in the services sector has slowed. Also, retail sales report for May was released today, screening the weakness in personal consumption on retails as it came in at -0.4%. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
Jul 03 09 10:24 GMT |
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In Currencies: The USD encountered some retracement against the European pairs during the session following the gains on Thursday in the mist of the increase in risk aversion after the US payroll report. The EUR/USD recovered from the Asian lows of 1.3950 to hover around the 1.40 level throughout the session.. Japanese official reiterated the opinion that the G8 was unlikely to debate the USD reserve stat |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
Jul 03 09 09:54 GMT |
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EUR/USD is trading very little changed from its US close. The move back into USDs that was prompted by the disappointing US payrolls data was extended into Asian hours initially. However, EUR buyers emerged below 1.3950 pushing the EUR moderately higher and back to the 1.4000 level. Final Eurozone June services PMI registered a better than expected 44.7, soothing the economic outlook a touch. However, this data does not change the view that the pace of activity in the Eurozone continued to deteriorate in Q2 albeit at a slower pace. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by AC-Markets |
Jul 03 09 09:47 GMT |
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NFP's disappoint by showing a -467K decline in payrolls, 100K more than the consensus. This underlines the vast layoffs from the GM and Chrysler debacle and the continuing difficulty to revive the economy. The EURUSD dropped from it's high 1.41's as low as 1.3930 before rebounding. While the pair broke it's range momentarily only a healthy breakout below the 1.3900 support will prove sufficient for a substantial move. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lena Manousarides |
Jul 03 09 09:46 GMT |
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The week has come to an end, with dollar strong across the board and especially the euro, as the pair fell below important 1.40, amid renewed worries about the state of global economy and the so called recovery. Stocks fell yesterday in New York, more than 200 points and Asia followed on the same note. The European markets are trading mixed so far, and Trichet's rhetoric yesterday did not provide any reasons for investors to keep buying the single currency, as he said that the bank will keep rates at those levels for a long period of time due to economic instability in the Euro area. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Jul 03 09 09:04 GMT |
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The greenback headed for a gain against the euro as rising unemployment in the U.S. and Europe added to speculation that the global recession will be longer than thought, boosting demand for the relative safety of the American currency. The British pound was set for a decline against the greenbak on speculation a U.K. report today 8:30am, GMT will show the service industry in Europe's second largest economy contracted in June, suggesting the worst of the worldwide slump is far from over and maybe prolonged. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Jul 03 09 07:47 GMT |
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The Finance Minister in South Korea said that 'South Korea's economy continues to be weak despite of the improvement seen recently in the industrial output and the consumer spending.' This statement released from the Korean government indicates that still there are concerns because of continued weakness in global demand that might keep the economic conditions delicate. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by KBC Bank |
Jul 03 09 07:31 GMT |
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A flaring up in risk averse investor behaviour after a disappointing US payrolls report supported the yen and the dollar. The euro and higher yielding currencies came under pressure. EUR/GBP tested the 0.8600 resistance, but the test of this key level was rejected. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group |
Jul 03 09 07:20 GMT |
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In the foreign exchanges, the weaker-than-expected payrolls data prompted a surge in risk aversion, with the U.S. dollar rising against the euro but falling against the Japanese yen. However, some of these moves have now been reversed in Asian and early European trading. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jul 03 09 07:07 GMT |
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The market was taken by surprise at the release of worse than expected Nonfarm Payrolls (out at -467K vs. -365K expected). The Unemployment Rate was lower than expected at 9.5% and the 'broad' unemployment (including unwilling marginally attached and part-time workers) rose to 16.5%. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Jul 03 09 06:54 GMT |
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The UK services PMI survey is likely to garner the most attention today, with US markets are closed. The manufacturing survey, released on Wednesday, rose more than expected to 47.0 in June from 45.4, while yesterday's construction PMI fell slightly to 44.5 from 45.9 - both have improved significantly from lows seen earlier in the year, but remain below the 50 level that separates growth and contraction. For the services PMI survey, we expect the index to stay above 50, close to last month's surprisingly strong rise to 51.7. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jul 03 09 06:50 GMT |
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Markets had set themselves up for a shock into the non-farm payrolls number, with analysts quite optimistic for a better number. However this was not to be and the headline number disappointed with 467k jobs lost in June compared with 365k expected. The unemployment rate also crept closer to the 10% magnet, rising 0.1% to 9.5%. Optimists may wish to point out that the rate was below forecast and registered a slower increase than seen in previous months. Average Earnings were flat for month-on-month comparisons, a low that has only been matched about five times since the early 1990's. Average weekly hours declined to a new record low of 33.0 hours. The weekly claims number provided no cause for cheer, with yet another 600+ reading, even as Continuing Claims fell rather sharply. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
Jul 03 09 06:04 GMT |
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The last day of the Asian week ended in a dynamic fashion right out of the gate as the Euro extended losses against the US Dollar as it collapsed almost 175 pips in a wave of stop loss selling in a thinned market. After yesterday's poor US employment data cast a dark cloud on the hopes of an early emergence from the global recession, the Greenback was bought in a hasty fashion as investors looked for safety as they fled riskier assets. If you didn't look at a chart after yesterday's Asia close and just opened one up for the start of the trade day today, it's safe to say that the moves you witnessed were startling. The drop on the open today in EUR/USD was as well, quite dynamic, and after the pair hit bottom below 1.3930, it spent the rest of the session clawing higher as investors looked to buy the European currency at the lows of the week. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jul 03 09 05:57 GMT |
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Also a quiet day in the FX markets with no major key events and the US market closed. The weak non-farm payrolls kicked the remainders of risk appetite out of the market and the market rushed to the safety of the dollar, despite the numbers underlining that the US economy is still struggling. We recommend to keep an eye on the oil price as it dropped below USD70 yesterday. The market finally seems to realise that oil prices well above USD 70 are not consistent with the current state of the global economy. If commodities continue to struggle today this might weigh further on EUR/USD and commodity currencies like CAD, AUD and NZD. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Jul 03 09 05:36 GMT |
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Overall, the major currencies gained a few pips compared to the dollar throughout the Asian session, which denotes that for now, the market is buying risk. The moves pulled until now still need to be confirmed by the London open, because it is too early to tell if these moves were just a reaction to Thursday's strong selling, or if the market has decided to turn around and buy the higher yielding currencies. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
Jul 03 09 05:33 GMT |
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In currencies, the US dollar and yen opened the session stronger, however both currencies have since pared their gains as dealers attributed the earlier moves to 'stop hunting' and illiquid market conditions. EUR/USD moved below 1.400 in Asia, but has since pared its losses. Additionally, the Swiss Franc and pound have moved off of their worst levels against the dollar. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Easy Forex |
Jul 03 09 03:44 GMT |
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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had its largest rally in two months as risk aversion spiked higher after weak US jobs data put the recovery story in doubt. Oil slipped over 4% as less jobs indicates consumer demand should remain weak. June Non Farm Payrolls at -467k (F.-360k) and Unemployment Rate at 9.5% vs. 9.6% forecast. Crude Oil closes down $2.58 to close the day at $66.73. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 49 points or -2.67% and the Dow Jones was down -223 points or -2.63%. Looking ahead, July 4th Holidays. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Westpac Institutional Bank |
Jul 03 09 01:28 GMT |
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Sentiment soured after the US payrolls report, showing more jobs lost than the market expected. The S&P500 fell immediately (via the futures contract, prior to the opening bell), the index down 2.3% near the close this morning. Oil fell 4%, copper 1%, in sympathy. US 10yr treasuries' gains were 12bp at one point, but late profit-taking resulted in a more moderate 4bp gain overall, the 2yr note outperforming at -6bp. US 3mth Libor was 1bp lower at 0.58%. In another surprise yesterday, Sweden's central bank cut rates by 25bp to 0.25%; only one of 20 economists polled expected it. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by CMS Forex |
Jul 03 09 01:21 GMT |
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The dollar and yen rose after US employment dropped more than expected, dampening economic recovery prospects. Stocks and commodities fell as investors sought haven in treasuries ahead of a long weekend in the US. The S&P 500 fell 26.91 points to 896.42. The European and commodity currencies declined on increased risk aversion. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB expects a nearterm period of deflation to be 'short-lived.' Trichet reiterated that the hard-hit eurozone economy will see the pace of the recession easing in the second half of 2009, with positive GDP quarterly growth resuming by mid- 2010 |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by CMS Forex |
Jul 03 09 01:17 GMT |
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June's nonfarm payroll release disappointed forecasts, with the economy shedding 467K jobs. That number undershot forecasts of a 345K decrease, and changes the outlook for the US labor market. Expectations had been for a slowdown in the pace of firings which could help improve the chances of a recovery. Though we are not near the levels of job losses seen in December through March, it does dampen expectations of an improvement in the labor market. The unemployment rate inched up to 9.5%, which was actually a better than expected result. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Jul 02 09 21:46 GMT |
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Overall, the currency market moved on increased volume on Thursday, as the economic calendar of the U.S. session was loaded with top tier releases. Among them, the NFP and the ECB press conference were the two most important, but so far it seems that the market has priced-in the weaker than expected data from the labor market beginning with the overnight session. As such, the major pairs moved mostly side-ways after the 8:30am EDT releases, even though the S&P futures and the commodity market declined at a sustained pace during this period. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
Jul 02 09 21:44 GMT |
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It was another exciting session in NY early on as the buck extended overnight gains on unbridled risk aversion. The overnight comments from China that they did not ask the G-8 to discuss the USD reserve status at the meeting next week provided the spark and a horrendous NFP report did the rest. US nonfarm payrolls plunged -467K in June, well below the consensus call for a -365K drop but more in line with our forecast of -410K. This sent equities reeling and the yen crosses were promptly sold in size. USD/JPY eventually collapsed from an intraday high by 96.90 towards a 95.70 low. EUR/JPY meanwhile was sitting by the 134.15/20 lows after falling from 136.70 highs earlier in the day. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by GCI Financial |
Jul 02 09 19:48 GMT |
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The common currency gaved back most of yesterday's gains ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S. As expected, the European Central Bank kept monetary policy unchanged and ECB President Trichet reported interest rates remain "appropriate." Trichet also said recent economic data indicate the global economy has reached an "inflection point in the cycle" and said policymakers "have to remain very alert." He added risks to the economic outlook are "balanced" and added inflation expectations are "anchored." |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by KBC Bank |
Jul 02 09 18:01 GMT |
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Today's decision by the European Central Bank to leave its key policy interest rates unchanged was universally expected. That is not to say that the policy outlook is completely clear cut. Today's surprise rate cut by the Swedish Riksbank and growing expectations that the Bank of England may step up the scale of its quantitative easing highlight a widely held view that further policy action maybe needed to put economies and financial systems on a healthier path. Clearly, the ECB is mindful of this possibility. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Jul 02 09 17:50 GMT |
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Once again the U.S. monthly employment condition caught the markets, or specifically the analysts, out in regard to the negative numbers that were reported in the Non-farm payroll, initial jobless, and unemployment rate detail. The Trough part of the global business cycle takes a while to get out of, and while the sentiment may be changing, the fundamental releases take a long time to make up the lag factor between optimism and reality aligning. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Foreign Exchange Analytics |
Jul 02 09 16:15 GMT |
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For much of 2H 2007 and through 1H 2008 it was obvious to many, myself too, that market participants were ignoring credit market signals…blowing out of credit spreads, downgrades of RMBS, CDOs and spiking CDS on all sorts of securities. Remember the stock market put in a record high in Q4 2007. Many at the time were saying no big deal…employment was holding up and the economy seemed like it was working. Why sweat credit spreads when stocks were up and home prices not yet falling? |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by AC-Markets |
Jul 02 09 16:10 GMT |
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The dollar strengthened across the board as the worse-than-expected non-farm payroll number prompted traders to steer away from high-yields. The EurUsd continues its losing streak thanks to the dollar strength, dipped 160pips from yesterday’s high to 1.40 as downward momentum was represented by declining RSI. The GbpUsd fell 100pips and consolidated around 1.63, registered a three-day drop of 300pips or 2.4%. The UsdJpy slid 70pips to 96.1 as traders steered away from risk appetite. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jul 02 09 15:37 GMT |
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The US employment report for June showed a larger than expected decline in employment. Although some of this was due to the unwinding of temporary census-related hires by the federal government, subtracting these 49K still leaves the overall report a disappointment. Net revisions to April and May amount to a modest +8K. The unemployment rate rose less than expected but this was mostly due to a setback in the labour force. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Dukascopy Swiss FX Group |
Jul 02 09 15:33 GMT |
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The yen and dollar are down against riskier rivals Friday morning after market sentiment picked up on stronger crude and equities. However, trading has been volatile and largely range bound, indicative of the market's uncertainty ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The euro's overnight gains are slipping some into the New York morning. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
Jul 02 09 15:22 GMT |
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The USD continued its modest recovery as the holiday-shortened week drew to a close. Officials downplaying the reserve currency topic at next week's G8 summit initially aided the USD. Following the US payroll data, the risk aversion theme crept back into the overall sentiment and further favored the USD. EUR/USD tested the 1.4000 level as the mid- NY morning approached. The JPY also benefited from the decrease in risk appetite. The ECB maintained its interest rate at 1.0%, as expected and reiterated that the current interest rate level was appropriate but not necessarily the lowest. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Jul 02 09 15:20 GMT |
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As expected, the ECB left interest rates unchanged in July at 1.00% and provided very few changes to their outlook for inflation and the Eurozone economy. The only notable change in language was the downgrading of inflationary pressures from “moderate” to “low.” Outside of this, the ECB continues to see the risks to both inflation and economic growth broadly balanced around their base case forecast for positive quarterly GDP growth to return by mid-2010 and inflation to remain dampened over the medium term. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Jul 02 09 15:15 GMT |
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At the ECB press conference, held after the announcement to hold the minimum bid rate at 1%, as expected, Mr. Trichet re-iterated on Thursday the same messages as in the last few press conferences. The euro-area economy is going through a contraction period, which is likely to continue for the time being, and interest rates are poised to remain at very low levels, until the expected gradual recovery starts to threaten the inflation target. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Jul 02 09 15:11 GMT |
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The data released in the second quarter of the current year were better than those released in the first quarter when the economy witnessed the worst economic recession since WWII. The ECB today left the interest rate unchanged at 1% as they see it suitable for this phase. However, there may be a need for further cuts to protect the financial sector from the lingering effects of the credit crisis. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Interactive Brokers |
Jul 02 09 14:40 GMT |
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The U.S. trading week is ending in completely the opposite fashion to its demure start thanks to yet another resounding number of jobs lost during the month of June. As a result of a payroll report reading 467,000 losses and 100,000 more than anticipated, the recovery theme suffered a dramatic setback. The rate of unemployment rose to 9.5%. Not only is the dollar on a roll, but as a safety haven its partner in crime has reversed and earlier loss against the dollar and is rising strongly. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jul 02 09 14:36 GMT |
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The refinancing rate was unchanged at 1.0% as expected. Trichet did not signal that further rate cuts are in the pipeline, although he did again say that the governing council had not decided that 1% is the lowest level. With inflation in negative territory and low money growth it could be argued that the ECB should take rates even lower, but we nevertheless believe that the next rate change will be upward. There have been plenty of signals from members of the governing council that they are reluctant to go below 1%. Only if economic prospects deteriorate again and the ECB starts to see a real risk of deflation will they lower rates. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by MG Financial Group |
Jul 02 09 14:30 GMT |
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The greenback strengthened against the majors following the highly anticipated June jobs report, pushing the euro toward the 1.40-figure and the sterling to 1.6330. The US equity bourses fell sharply, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all lower by over 2% in morning trading. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Jul 02 09 14:18 GMT |
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The U.S. labor market continue to suffer from great weakness, as rising unemployment continue to undermine economic growth in the world's largest economy, in addition to tightened credit conditions, and diminishing wealth, as all continue to weigh down on consumer spending which account for nearly 2/3 of economic activity in the United States. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Jul 02 09 14:03 GMT |
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Payroll employment fell 467,000 in June, a bigger slide relative to the 365,000 drop expected within financial markets going into the report. This was up from May's surprisingly small drop of 322,000 (revised from the previously estimated -345,000) although still down from April's decline of 519,000. The household survey contained slightly less negative news about labour markets with the unemployment rate rising only 0.1 percentage point to 9.5% compared to expectations of an increase to 9.6%. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Saxo Bank |
Jul 02 09 13:46 GMT |
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The US employment report showed a negative surprise approximately in-line with the negative surprise in the ADP number yesterday. Some positive spin can be induced from the unemployment rate, which only rose 0.1% to 9.5%, which should get plenty of attention from the "second derivative crowd". This is the smallest incremental increase since September of last year and a bit of relief from the galloping increases in the unemployment rate of the previous six months, which saw the rate increase from 6.8% to 9.4%. Average Earnings were flat for month-on-month comparisons, a low that has only been matched about five times since the early 1990's. Average weekly hours declined to a new record low of 33.0 hours. The weekly claims number provided no cause for cheer, with yet another 600+ reading, even as Continuing Claims fell rather sharply. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Investica |
Jul 02 09 13:42 GMT |
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The dollar will remain very sensitive to issues of global reserve management and evidence of a move away from the US currency would continue to unsettle the US currency, especially if there are further negative comments. There is, however, little incentive for any of the key major global players to push for a weaker US currency, especially as they will be looking to protect export markets. They will also not want to trigger any destabilising dollar losses as it would trigger an immediate capital loss. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Jul 02 09 13:34 GMT |
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Non-farm employment fell 467,000 with widespread declines in many sectors especially for the ongoing structural change in manufacturing. The job losses are consistent with our expectations for modest economic growth without job growth the rest of this year. Higher unemployment rates and slower wage gains limit consumer income growth. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Jul 02 09 13:00 GMT |
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The Royal resuscitation, continues to take place on the United Kingdom's deathbed, where continuous aids are used in order to save Europe's leading economy from their doom. The protracted Credit Crisis recently struck the United Kingdom, pushing them into their worst recession since World War II, which resulted in obligating the Bank of England to use all available tools and extend measures on various occasions to salvage the economy from the prolonged downturn. |
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Daily Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Black Swan Capital |
Jul 02 09 12:28 GMT |
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By the looks of it, traders might actually be respecting the holiday commemorating US Independence. The dollar is positive on the day so far. Over the last week or so the currencies have struggled to carve out any sustained direction - the moves have amounted mostly to a whole bunch of sideways chop. |
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