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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 31 07 19:44 GMT |
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The US dollar showed minor signs of strength before heading into 2008 as the currency appreciated against most of its counterparts, except for the USD/JPY pair, due to an unexpected increase in Existing Home sales. The Euro and Pound Sterling both depreciated against the US dollar as the EUR/USD pair reflected the biggest gain in December as it fell around $1.45, with the GBP/USD pair falling to the $1.98. The Canadian dollar was also a big loser as it fell 200 pips against the US dollar. Amid its recent gains, the USD has seen its biggest decline in four years as we head into the New Year, and wait for new data that will give us a better outlook on what to expect for 2008. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Dec 31 07 17:00 GMT |
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The dollar tumbled across the board during the last week of 2007, and the carry trades were put on the back burner. With trading volumes thinned out the market took the US currency to the only logical direction, down, but currencies gained at different paces. The new year should start with the dollar on the ropes - unless the oil prices head lower unexpectedly. Have a happy and prosperous 2008! |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Black Swan Capital |
Dec 31 07 16:36 GMT |
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Over the last few weeks it seems the idea about a weakening U.K. economy is gaining traction. Answers to the credit crisis are few and far between; the question marks still take up most of the news headlines. The result: the British pound is tripping over itself. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by MG Financial Group |
Dec 31 07 16:29 GMT |
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Money is flowing back into the safe haven Euro, as a close ally of the United States, former president Mrs. Bhutto, is killed in Pakistan. State's turbulence appears more the consequence of an internal struggle between various conflicting powers, than a terrorist attack from external sources. Euro/Usd is again challenging important resistance levels, but a thicker market is needed to evaluate the move of last week, considering the light volume in which the rebound took place. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Trade The News |
Dec 31 07 16:17 GMT |
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In currencies, dealers' were noticing that trading activity has been light ahead of the New Years Day holiday. The USD was mixed against the major currencies, but has recovered from the initial weakness experienced on the European open. EUR/USD was at 1.4640 after testing 1.4750 in Europe. GBP/USD tested 1.9980 area after probing above 2.01 in pre-NY trading. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by TradingEducation.com |
Dec 31 07 16:11 GMT |
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The dollar again tested lows beyond 1.4740 in Asian trading on Monday before consolidating just weaker than the 1.47 level ahead of the US open. The dollar then pushed ahead sharply to highs beyond 1.4600 in new York as thin volumes ahead of the New Year holiday contributed to higher volatility. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by GCI Financial |
Dec 31 07 16:08 GMT |
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In U.S. news, traders await remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn later in the week along with December non-farm payrolls data on Friday. The Federal Reserve is expected to ease monetary policy by 25bps at the end of January and another 25bps in March. Data released in the U.S. today saw November existing home sales up 0.4% m/m while sales were off 20% y/y to 5.0 million annualized units. The euro appreciated 11.07% vis-ŕ-vis the U.S. dollar in 2007. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4585 level. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Dec 31 07 15:21 GMT |
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Existing home sales came in slightly stronger than expected in November, rising a marginal 0.4% to an annualized level of five million units. This represented the first increase since February 2007. The increase occurred from a modestly upwardly revised level in October of 4.98 million units (originally reported as 4.97 million units). Expectations had been for sales to remain unchanged from the initially reported October level. The increase in sales largely reflected a 0.7% rise in single-family detached units. This more than offset a 1.6% drop in the condo-coop component. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 31 07 15:13 GMT |
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Well dear reader another year has come to an end, and as they say the end is merely a new beginning and that is what we hope to you and the US economy as well. What better way to end our year journey but with data from the tarnished sector in the US shedding over us glimpse of hope, as we need optimism… |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 31 07 14:33 GMT |
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After the US new home sales data for November crossed the wires last week, reporting a 9 percent tumble to a new 12 year low, market participants lowered their forecasts for the existing sales report for the same period. However, the National Association of Realtors' report offered a report that was fundamentally different than the government's 'leading' housing indicator. Against economists' expectations of no change in sales activity through the period, the indicator actually reported a modest 0.4 percent improvment. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Investica |
Dec 31 07 12:49 GMT |
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Economy fears will unsettle the dollar, but 2008 institutional flows will key for the US currency this week. Markets have priced in a 90% chance that rates will be cut again by the Fed in January. Expectations of lower rates pushed the dollar weaker to 1.4745 in early European trading on Monday before a recovery to 1.4715 with the threat of further choppy trading in the very short term. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 31 07 11:59 GMT |
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The dollar fell as weak data fuelled speculation of a further cut in rates by the Feds whereas the yen benefited from jitters caused by the turbulence in Pakistan and ongoing financial concerns. The dollar was still stinging from weak US new home sales data which was released Friday adding to the speculation of further cut in rates in 2008. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 31 07 11:02 GMT |
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For those who actually stuck around to watch the FX markets today, one had to look at crosses like EURGBP to find any sort of price action. Indeed, the pair tumbled throughout the morning to break below 0.7350, helping to propel GBPUSD above 2.00 and push EURUSD down for an unsuccessful test of 1.47. There was no data on hand to perpetuate such a move, but year-end profit taking was the likely culprit, and the price action was simply amplified by thin trading volumes. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Trade The News |
Dec 31 07 10:58 GMT |
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Overall market tone was quiet with Germany, Italy and Spain among the countries on holiday this session. The USD rebounded from opening level lows against the Euro. Overall price action focused on EUR/GBP cross. Gold dipped into negative territory after comments from a Sharif party official that a short delay in Pakistani election would 'acceptable.' In contrast the Bhutto oppositon rejected any delay in the Jan 8th election date. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Finotec Group |
Dec 31 07 10:54 GMT |
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The dollar lost most of his latest gains vs. the majors, toward the end of last week as weak data from the US speared back speculation for further Fed rate cuts into 2008. The biggest fall of new home sales in the last 12 years and an unexpected drop in durable good order gave a wakeup call after investor sank into yearend optimism. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Finotec Group |
Dec 31 07 08:48 GMT |
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The dollar fell, completing its second annual decline against the euro and ending two years of gains versus the yen, as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates again this January to counter an economic slowdown. The Dollar is trading around the levels of 1.4710 against the Euro, around the levels of 112.06 against the Yen and around the levels of 1.9960 against the Sterling. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 31 07 08:43 GMT |
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The US dollar was mixed against major currencies midway through today's trading session following an erratic performance on Friday, as a decline in new home sales reinforced concerns about the US economy and raised expectations for a further cut in rates in 2008. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 31 07 06:18 GMT |
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The year 2007 has come to an end, the year passed by with all its troubles and all its dreams, and now a new year will start, with new troubles and new dreams, but before we end this year and start the new one, before we actually say happy new year, we have a one last figure on the U.S. economy due today. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 31 07 06:15 GMT |
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The US Dollar tumbled significantly last week amidst heightened risk aversion following the assassination of former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto. Indeed, the greenback was clearly not even close to being the "safe haven" of choice, as the Euro and Swiss franc saw the greatest gains. Meanwhile, US data has been broadly mixed, with consumer confidence surprisingly proving to be more optimistic, while production and housing figures have been generally disappointing. Nevertheless, with fed fund futures pricing in a 90 percent chance of a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC on January 30, pure interest rate differentials raise the risk of further declines in the greenback. Add to that the geopolitical turmoil that has re-emerged and the low liquidity we see so often around this time of year, and the situation is ripe for softness in the US dollar. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Trade The News |
Dec 31 07 03:32 GMT |
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The USD is weaker against most currency pairs ahead of tomorrow's US existing home sales data (EUR/USD just below 1.4750, USD/JPY below 112.00). The JPY is stronger across the board on year end short-covering and risk aversion. The GBP is marginally higher against the USD (though under performing EUR/USD), but weaker against the EUR and JPY. The CHF is also stronger against the EUR and USD on geopolitical concerns in Pakistan and gains in gold prices. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Forex.com |
Dec 31 07 03:31 GMT |
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The year is quickly wrapping up but that didn't stop traders in Asia from reducing their risk and taking off positions in the JPY crosses. USD/JPY initially gapped higher but steadily sold off on light volume. The USD was weaker against other pairs as well as EUR/USD and AUD/USD also traded higher. EUR/JPY grinded through Friday's lows below 165.00. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Investica |
Dec 31 07 01:48 GMT |
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Monday is likely to be a difficult and interesting day for the markets. There is the threat of erratic trading on the last day of the year, especially as liquidity will remain low. Last-minute position adjustment could have an important impact as it will clash with low trading volumes and great caution will be required. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by FX Solutions |
Dec 31 07 01:46 GMT |
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The recovery in the dollar since late November and its partial submergence this week were end of the year technical plays, nothing more. From August to November the dollar lost over 11% against the euro, profit taking on such an exceptional trend was inevitable, especially in December. The dollar fall since last Friday was a reversal triggered by the weak durable goods number on Wednesday. Neither move is predictive of market opinion going into the New Year. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Easy Forex |
Dec 31 07 01:43 GMT |
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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) remained pressured following conflicting data on Friday. Chicago PMI rebounded well for the month of December coming in at 56.6 above the forecasted 51.8, yet any gains for the currency were capped by a decline New Home Sales which fell -9.0%, seen at 647k for November to set a new 12 year low. The data gave further indication that the housing slow down still had further scope for worsening downside, prompting investors to reconsider the possibility of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their first meeting for 2008. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Forex.com |
Dec 29 07 04:31 GMT |
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The Greenback was crushed against most major currencies, with the EUR the primary beneficiary, as softer US data and heightened risk aversion led to heavy position liquidation. The USD's collapse was exacerbated by reduced liquidity conditions in the holiday–shortened week, which was evident in the persistence of the directional price moves. It's always difficult to gauge the durability of price developments that take place during such holiday periods—and next week will be another—but I think it's safe to say that the USD correction higher has come to an abrupt end. Whether the USD will continue falling, however, is another question entirely. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by TradingEducation.com |
Dec 29 07 04:24 GMT |
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During the week, there were a series of market holidays surrounding the Christmas break and this severely dampened trading volumes. The low level of liquidity contributed to volatile currency moves with markets also focused on near-term growth prospects in the major economies. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 29 07 04:15 GMT |
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On Monday, the National Association of Realtors is expected to report that existing home sales held at 4.97 million - the lowest reading since record-keeping began in 1999. Sales of existing homes account for nearly 85 percent of the market, according to NAR, so this particular release serves as a good indicator of the status of the sector as a whole. Traders will also be looking at the inventory component, as signs that supplies continue to build while demand wanes will suggest that prices have much further to fall. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 29 07 04:11 GMT |
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The US dollar continued to weaken after news that the help wanted index dropped from 22 to 21 in the month of November and new homes sales fell to 12 year lows. Any hope for a housing market recovery has been eradicated by today’s release as the steep decline points to the lack of buyers. Prospective homeowners are holding out until they see a bottom which is certainly not healthy for a market that desperately needs buyers. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by MG Financial Group |
Dec 29 07 04:05 GMT |
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The greenback extended its losses broadly after a report showed the nation's housing market deterioration has not ended yet. The dollar posed for the biggest weekly decline versus the euro. US new home sales fell from 728k to 647k in November, the lowest level in 12 years. The weak data added to concern that the slowing housing market and tight credit market may impede the growth of the whole economy. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by another quarter-percentage point to 4.00% at its January 30 policy meeting. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Black Swan Capital |
Dec 28 07 17:36 GMT |
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Reasons why the dollar bottomed: Investor sentiment - Supermodels and athletes wanting to be paid in euoro, instead of dollars; and magazine covers declaring the dollar's demise. Too low - Fundamentally, looking relatively cheap (not against the Asian-block though) if one were to consider the warts growing in European economies too. In short, all the bad news is priced in the buck. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Dec 28 07 17:32 GMT |
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Sales of new single-family homes plunged 9.0 percent in November, fueling fears the housing market slump will be deeper than previously thought. November's drop looks a bit suspicious. There was a huge drop in the Midwest, which reversed a big gain from the previous month. Sales fell in the South and Northeast but rose in the West. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by GCI Financial |
Dec 28 07 16:35 GMT |
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Data released in the U.S. today saw November new home sales fall 9% to an annualized rare of 647,000 units, the lowest sales rate since April 1995. Also, the Chicago PMI business index improved to 56.6 in December from 52.9 in November, far above expectations. The February fed funds futures contract is now predicting a 90% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the fed funds target rate by 25bps to 4.0% at the end of January. The contract is also pricing in a 45% chance the FOMC will reduce rates by 50bps. In eurozone news, German consumer prices were up 0.5% m/m and 2.8% y/y. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4585 level. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 28 07 16:02 GMT |
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Why aren't we surprised a new month and a new indicator from the housing sector and nothing has changed, seems the housing slump will continue to suck us further down in 08 as the bottom is not getting any near nor clear making the OUCH the US is to scream more painful which clearly the dollar is showing! |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Dec 28 07 15:05 GMT |
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Today's report does little to alter the view that housing activity continues to operate at very depressed levels. Declining sales and rising inventory levels indicate that new construction will likely need to be cut back further. Concern at the Fed is that this weakness gets overlaid by an extended period of credit tightness that would imply weakness in other areas such as business investment and consumer spending on durables. To limit the spread of weakening activity, we continue to expect the central bank to cut interest rates further with Fed funds dropping an additional 50 basis points to 3.75% in the first quarter of 2008. Though growth is likely to remain sluggish over the first half of next year, an expected easing in the credit tightening will allow growth to rebound over the final two quarters of 2008. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Trade The News |
Dec 28 07 15:03 GMT |
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In currencies, The USD remained soft against the European currencies this session throughout today's session. Broadly Higher commodity prices and geopolitical factors were again cited as the main factors behind the USD weakness. EUR/USD back above the 1.47 handle USD/CHF probing the 1.13 area. Further unrest was seen in Pakistan today following the assassination of former PM Bhutto yesterday. Numerous reports of violence were cited throughout Pakistan. Spot Gold up $10 to $835 per oz, Front month Crude futures higher by $1.00 at $97.55. Commodity related currencies firmer as well with USD/CAD at 0.9765 and AUD/USD at 0.8775. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by FX Greece |
Dec 28 07 14:28 GMT |
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EUR/USD broke 1.4570 important resistance, and hasn't looked back since then, printing a new high by the minute. At the time of writing the pair is just above 1.47 after 1.4680 was taken out easily. Under normal market conditions the pair would meet bigger resistance touching these levels, however the fact that its still holidays for many traders and therefore the liquidity is very thin, gives euro bulls the upper hand to put further strength in the European currency. Also, the geopolitical events which are unfolding these days after the murder of Benazir Bhutto is weighing on the dollar and this time flight to safety sees a lot of Swiss franc buying and also euro too. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 28 07 14:20 GMT |
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New Home Sales plummeted to fresh 12-year lows, as a whopping 9.0 percent decline in sales sunk the annualized pace to a mere 647,000 rate. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the median price of houses sold actually gained considerably on the month--rising by nearly $10,000 to $239,100. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 28 07 14:10 GMT |
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Chicago PMI printed significantly above consensus forecasts for the month of December, as a sizeable jump in New Orders offset a similarly noteworthy drop in Employment levels. Indeed, the Employment index dropped below the key 50 expansion/contraction level at 49.0--the second such occurrence in three months. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Forex.com |
Dec 28 07 12:02 GMT |
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The final London Session of a very quiet holiday week (Christmas, Boxing Day) has brought an increase in trading activity, but market conditions remain firmly inferior to the healthy backdrop to which we have become accustomed. Both volume and volatility came sporadically, frustrating market players with directional, illiquid price movement. The main theme for the day has been simple: an aggressive reversal of the Asia Carry Trade sell off. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 28 07 12:00 GMT |
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The US dollar continues to weaken against majors due to political uncertainty in the Middle East and lets not forget the string of weak US data which unfortunately cut investors' appetite for risk assets like stocks, with the unwinding of Yen-funded carry trades also weighing on the greenback. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 28 07 11:08 GMT |
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Risk aversion remained high on Friday morning - a day after the assassination of former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto - as the greenback continues to crumble while the Euro and Swiss franc surged as traders sought the safe-haven of the day. Meanwhile, Asian and European equities tumbled following Wall Street's losses yesterday, taking carry trades like GBPJPY and USDJPY out with them. US data has been broadly mixed as of late, with consumer confidence and spending reports surprisingly proving to be more optimistic, while production and housing figures have been broadly disappointing. Nevertheless, with risks for the US economy vastly to the downside and the Federal Reserve still perceived as being dovish, it is little wonder the greenback is so susceptible to losses, especially at times of geopolitical distress. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Investica |
Dec 28 07 11:04 GMT |
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The Swiss franc will gain some support on safe-haven grounds, although strong gains look unlikely in the near term. The Swiss currency found further support above the 1.1550 level against the dollar and strengthened to near 1.1420 in early US trading on Thursday. The franc also found some support close to 1.6680 against the Euro although initial gains were limited. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Trade The News |
Dec 28 07 09:57 GMT |
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The USD remained soft against the European currencies this session. Higher commodity prices and geopolitical factors were cited for the USD weakness. EUR/USD back above the 1.47 handle as Cable trying to regain a foothold above the 2.0 level. USD/CHF probing the 1.13 area. Further unrest was seen in Pakistan today following the assassination of former PM Bhutto yesterday. Numerious reports of violence were cited throughout Pakistan. Safe-have flows continued as both Gold and CHF firmed in the session. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 28 07 08:27 GMT |
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The euro was the strongest currency for the day, rising against the dollar as well as the Royal pound and the Yen. The moderately better looking outlook for the Euro Zone economy and the hawkishness of the ECB made the euro the de facto safe haven currency. Preliminary data on sales are scheduled for release today as we await the Bloomberg Retail PMI. Inflation is expected to remain high and with business confidence falling, there is a good sign that consumer spending could slow. The EUR/USD pair just recorded a high of 1.4665 and a low of 1.4591 |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Finotec Group |
Dec 28 07 08:10 GMT |
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The dollar is under a strong selling pressure, trading now near two-week lows against the euro and the Swiss franc after falling sharply yesterday when a soft U.S. durable goods report was taken by investors as boosting the case for more interest rate cuts by the Fed on January next year. The Dollar is trading around the levels of 1.4650 against the Euro, around the levels of 113.10 against the Yen, around the levels of 1.9970 against the sterling. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Crown Forex |
Dec 28 07 07:19 GMT |
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As the year 2007 is taking her last breaths, and the year 2008 is just about to be born, markets are putting the final touches on the U.S. economy grave, with some housing data to be released, and expectations that the housing slump CONTINUED throughout all 2007, and probably will continue in 2008. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 28 07 07:17 GMT |
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According to Nationwide Building Society, UK house prices fell 0.5 percent in December, marking the second consecutive month of declines and dragging the annual rate to a one-and-a-half year low of 4.8 percent. Indeed, property prices have started to pull back as demand wanes in the face of affordability issues, stricter lending standards, and higher mortgage rates (despite the Bank of England's December 25bp rate cut). With these factors unlikely to subside in the near-term, house price growth in the UK should continue to slow. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Jyske Bank |
Dec 28 07 04:34 GMT |
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The dollar was steady against the euro on Friday after falling the previous day on weak U.S. economic data and uncertainty after the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. The euro held on to much of its gains against the dollar after rising around one percent on Thursday, when a soft U.S. durable goods report was taken by investors as boosting the case for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. |
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Fundamental Archives |
Written by Forex.com |
Dec 28 07 04:29 GMT |
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The final Asia session of the week began with a dollar bid tone. After steady selling throughout the New York day, the greenback managed to deal from its lows and begin to pair some of it losses against the other majors. EURUSD dealt from recent highs in the 1.4640s by 50+ pips, as Forex traders sold the pair back below 1.4600. AUDUSD gave back 40+ pips as well, dealing into the .8750s by mid session. |
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