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Long Term Forex Forecasts It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
This sections provides long term forecasts reports written by selected external contributors around the world. A wide range of topics will be covered, including global economy and monetary policies. In addition, some reports also contains long term technical analysis of specific forex pairs. The long term forecasts reports are usually "longer" in length comparing to dailies and weeklies. But they definitely worth the read!
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Long Term Forecasts Reports RSS |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Trade The News |
Jul 02 09 18:42 GMT |
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As we head into the heart of the summer, markets seem to be taking a breather, with lighter trading volume, stocks and commodities holding onto recent gains (including the best quarterly gains in the stock market in 20 years), treasury yields edging off of recent highs, and currency trading bands tightening up. Volatility, though still historically elevated, is markedly lower than the historic levels seen just a few months ago when a global melt down seemed a real possibility, as was symbolized by frequent 500 point swings in the DJIA. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Jun 14 09 09:51 GMT |
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Our forecast incorporates the improved tone of recent economic reports as well as the anticipated bounce-back in motor vehicle production from the current severely depressed levels in the third quarter. We now expect third quarter GDP to be solidly positive, which means the recession will likely end this summer. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Jun 14 09 09:41 GMT |
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The stand out market trends of the past month or so have been the massive sell off in long bond yields, the substantial depreciation of the USD and the surprising power of credit rating agencies with some of their recent pronouncements on sovereign credit rating risks. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Jun 08 09 19:46 GMT |
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The financial markets have latched on to some positive signs for economic recovery in recent weeks after an unrelenting series of negative news in previous months. This has led in our view to an overly optimistic outlook, reflected in some exchange rate and interest rate trends. We look for some of this to unwind in the months ahead. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Jun 08 09 10:49 GMT |
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Investors thought they heard the death knell for global recession in May and increased their appetite for risk, shying away from government bonds and buying equities, commodities and currencies except the U.S. dollar. As a result, the global stock market index we watch increased by 12.2%, oil prices rose 34%, while non-energy commodity prices hit their highest level since November according to the Bank of Canada's index. In the currency world, the U.S. dollar tumbled, with the trade-weighted index losing 4.4% in May alone. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jun 08 09 10:41 GMT |
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The global recovery in 2009 is likely to be stronger than expected by consensus. We continue to expect the global recession to end in Q3 2009 and see this as one of the dominant drivers for financial markets in coming quarters. A combination of very lean inventories and a recovery in demand from massive record stimulus packages will provide a major boost to world production - and trade - in the coming quarters. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jun 08 09 10:37 GMT |
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Leading indicators continued to improve in May. The development points to a rather synchronous recovery with improvement in leading indicators in all regions. The picture of improvement is supported by significant rises in metal prices and freight rates recently. Global PMI rose to 45.3 in May from 41.8 in April and thus continues the increasing trend from the previous months reaching for the crucial level of 50. The most leading sub index new orders rose significantly to 48.6 from 43.8. The balance between inventories and orders continued to improve, which points to a further recovery in global PMIs in the months ahead. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Trade The News |
Jun 01 09 21:02 GMT |
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With the doomsday scenario apparently off the table, prospects for recovery have helped fuel the resurgence in stocks and in some commodity prices. The first wave of the Treasury's unprecedented debt sales have been absorbed relatively smoothly, though the US dollar has weakened substantially on concerns about the mounting government debt burden. Still, there are growing hopes that the economic rescue measures implemented by global central banks and governments are beginning to take hold and provide a lush foundation of ‘green shoots' underfoot that can be nurtured into a blossoming global economic recovery by late 2009 or into 2010. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
May 13 09 18:37 GMT |
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Despite the volatility of monthly economic releases and policy prescriptions, surprisingly little in the outlook has deviated from the pattern of the recovery as outlined in our annual outlook published last December. Economic recovery is expected to start later this year. Weakness in consumer spending has begun to give way to gradual improvement. Business spending continues to decline. Housing remains weak. A significant inventory correction in early 2009, combined with a gradual recovery in final sales, produces an improvement in aggregate demand. Inflation remains low while corporate profits remain weak. Federal Reserve policy has kept short rates low while long Treasury rates are expected to rise. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
May 11 09 19:11 GMT |
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A run of better than expected economic data has meant that financial market sentiment has shifted from worrying about how bad the economic downturn is going to be, to looking for when recovery will start. This is a big shift and explains why equity markets have bounced back and why long term bond yields have risen, and why some key commodity prices, including oil, are rising quickly. Currencies are reflecting this change to some extent, with high yielding commodity currencies picking up particularly strongly. Our view is that the US$ is being sold too aggressively too soon, as the US will be the first of the major economies to benefit from global recovery. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
May 08 09 18:30 GMT |
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Spring has brought with it not only the usual blossoms, but also slight signs of revival in the global economy. In particular, the U.S. economy has shown some encouraging signs of stabilization which has underpinned a guardedly optimistic view for the outlook. And as for the rest of the globe, other economies that just recently appeared on the brink of disaster have also started to show small improvements in what was previously a plethora of abysmal data. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
May 08 09 18:22 GMT |
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Global financial markets appear to be viewing the green shoots of growth as viable with the MSCI world stock market index racking up another 16% in April and early May, LIBOR rates falling to record lows and credit spreads narrowing. The data on the global economy increasingly point to the first quarter of 2009 as being the low point, with leading indicators suggesting that the pace of decline is abating. It is still early days and too soon to say that the global economy is out of the woods; however, the list of upside surprises has been growing and there are inklings of upward revisions to growth forecasts. At the same time, fears of deflation are moderating as commitment to forecasts of a second-half recovery become more firmly entrenched. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Trade The News |
May 06 09 10:14 GMT |
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The so called "green shoots" seen this spring have emerged as "less bad" data show the economic decline has clearly slowed its descent. April saw the stock market move sideways, consolidating a 30% gain off the recent market lows, even as the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surged above 3% and 4% respectively. The equity market gains were made in the midst of oversold conditions, as sprigs of ivy climbed the wall of worry, but there is still some concern the shoots could die at the root. For the constructive tone in the markets to continue through the month of May, the economic data, corporate developments, and government activism must continue to cultivate the "green shoots," allowing them to grow and flourish. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Merk Hard Currency Fund |
Apr 20 09 16:12 GMT |
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Present policies may be sowing the seeds for the next financial crisis. Despite recent market optimism, we believe present interventions could produce significant future adverse and unintended consequences. Rather than curing the patient, the present initiatives may be overprescribing the patient with medication that cause significant side effects (and leave a bad taste in the mouth). |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Apr 08 09 10:05 GMT |
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We continue to expect the economic recovery to start late this year. Yet we see the recovery as being different in both character (less diversified) and strength (weaker) relative to past recoveries. Therefore, we believe the recovery will be disappointing to both citizens and policymakers. Such disappointment means more difficult decisions in the next three years. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Apr 08 09 09:58 GMT |
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March proved to be a remarkable month with stock markets rallying and a number of U.S. data indicators sliding onto the stronger-than-expected side of the ledger. The world stock market index that we track posted a gain of close to 8% and the S&P 500 rose 8.7%. The Federal Reserve announced plans on March 18 to make purchases of US$300 billion of government securities during the next six months aimed at keeping risk-free rates low enough to stimulate economic activity. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Apr 08 09 09:55 GMT |
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It is clear that the credit crisis will not end until the 'toxic assets' issue is resolved. Progress has been made on this in the past month but a clear cut end to the crisis still seems some distance away. However, the trough of the economic downturn appears to be close, if data released in the last month are any guide. However, the recession still has a long way to go, with unemployment likely to rise strongly in most countries for some time yet. Hence, official policy will remain extremely loose. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Merk Hard Currency Fund |
Mar 31 09 20:39 GMT |
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The patchwork of attempts to prop up the financial system has taken on a life of its own - we call it bailout economics. At every step, Adam Smith's "invisible hand" to guide the economy has become less evident. Back in the 18th century, the economist coined the term as a metaphor for the self-regulating nature of free markets. Economic booms and busts are as old as mankind, but each time a crisis occurs, policy makers want to ensure that the same disaster will never happen again. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Mar 25 09 20:21 GMT |
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Ultra-low central bank rates are not without their perils. In making this claim, we refer not to the risk of excessively stimulating the economy (which is another matter, and not one likely to be confronted for some time), but rather to the undesirable complications that arise when central bank rates become quite low. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mar 23 09 11:00 GMT |
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The economy is likely to remain in recession for a while yet, as the effects of continued deleveraging, wealth destruction, credit tightening and negative recession dynamics (skyrocketing unemployment and business destocking) should keep growth rates negative during Q2. However, in the middle of the year we expect a range of stabilising factors to kick in. The pace of credit tightening should slow, which, combined with a significant boost to real incomes from lower commodity prices, fiscal policy easing, lower mortgage rates and slower business destocking, should help a recovery get under way. We project GDP growth at -2.7% in 2009 and 2.5% in 2010. |
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Latest Long Term Forecasts |
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