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Long Term Forex Forecasts It's important to look at the big picture no matter what markets, and what time frame you are trading. There's no difference in trading Forex. Sometimes, one may wonder why a short term trend halts and reverses at a certain level before knowing that it's an important long term support/resistance, or a projection level in play. On the other hand, forex traders are always advised to pay attention to fundamentals like inflation forecasts, growth and monetary policy in medium to longer terms.
This sections provides long term forecasts reports written by selected external contributors around the world. A wide range of topics will be covered, including global economy and monetary policies. In addition, some reports also contains long term technical analysis of specific forex pairs. The long term forecasts reports are usually "longer" in length comparing to dailies and weeklies. But they definitely worth the read!
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Long Term Forecasts Reports RSS |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Westpac Institutional Bank |
Feb 05 10 16:22 GMT |
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In mid December, the Australian dollar was sitting at around 90.5˘. Since that time the AUD has moved in a 93˘ to 86˘ range. We are now sitting at the extreme lowpoint of that area after a run of negative sentiment accumulated in the early part of February. Indeed, the AUD is at its lowest ebb in some time. Our core thinking had been that the currency would have a final surge to 96˘ early in the year before |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Jan 13 10 15:42 GMT |
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Our estimate for fourth quarter real GDP has been raised significantly as a result of October and November's stronger inventory numbers. We are still expecting a $20 billion drop in inventories, so there is some upside risk. The slower pace of inventory liquidations is expected to add around 4 percentage points to real GDP growth during the fourth quarter, which should send the headline GDP number up at a 5.6 percent pace. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Jan 13 10 15:36 GMT |
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World economic recovery is underway, led by the emerging markets. When the data for Q4 2009 are in, they will show that all of the G20 economies - which together account for over 90% of world gdp - are expanding. This recovery has three main implications for financial markets in 2010. The first is that ultra loose monetary and fiscal policies put in place to kick-start recovery will start to be reversed. Second, this will likely lead to renewed volatility. Third, it is likely to change the dynamics of interest rate and FX markets in the months ahead. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Jan 10 10 09:22 GMT |
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Data over the past month largely produced upside surprises relative to market forecasts resulting in a sustained pickup in equity markets and a relatively sharp rise in government bond yields. Since our last publication on December 4, 2009, 10-year rates in the markets that we cover were up as much as 16-38 basis points. Yields retraced some ground in the first week of January but remain in the upper end of their 2009 trading range. The world equity market index posted a 2.1% gain during the month, managing to build on the very strong increases in the prior five-month period. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Easy Forex |
Dec 29 09 04:05 GMT |
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For most of 2009 the USD traded weaker pressured by low yields and improving risk appetite. USD in ending the year near a three and half month high supported by a shift in focus to improving US economic outlook and Fed rate hike speculation. We expect the USD to rally in early 2010 as the trade shifts focus to interest rate differentials and the correlation to risk appetite continues to breakdown. The key focus will be the Feds withdrawal of stimulus and timing of Fed rate hikes. The US labor market outlook is key to Fed policy. The Fed has indicated that rate hikes are unlikely until job is growth returns. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Dec 27 09 17:18 GMT |
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Herein we provide a quick summation of our top trades for 2010. Each trade is discussed more fully in the geographic and product-specific sections of this report. 1) Long CAD / Short EUR (Page 10) CAD should outperform EUR due to rising commodity prices and Canada's stronger structural position. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Dec 27 09 17:13 GMT |
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Trading was fundamentally transformed by the European Age of Discovery, which was pioneered by Portuguese navigators, such as Bartolomeu Dias and Vasco da Gama, who set sail down the West African coast, eventually making it to India by the end of the 16th century. The new course broke the stranglehold that the Ottoman Turks had on the overland spice trade and the considerable wealth that it provided. Ferdinand Magellan and Juan Elcano further altered world navigation by 1522 when their expedition circumnavigated the globe. In the 21st century, financial trading has been permanently altered by the global crisis associated with subprime mortgages, structured products and credit default swaps. Yet, there still exists an imperative need to finance economic activity. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Dec 27 09 17:08 GMT |
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Risky assets generally thrive when growth is in the early - and normally fastest - stages of recovery. As this year's brisk recovery has happened alongside massive cost-cutting earnings have been in a ‘sweet spot'. However, much of the fuel driving the recovery is of a temporary nature. The most important factor here is the inventory cycle but fiscal stimulus and the boost to demand from Asian recovery will also fade in 2010. Although we believe other engines will take over and make the recovery sustainable (theme #2) growth is likely to peak at some point. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
Nov 15 09 11:56 GMT |
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The labor market has been one of the hardest hits sectors of the real economy during the credit crisis, with the same trend being seen in most of the developed economies. The history of labor reporting indicates that employment is a lagging indicator of economic health, where the slack in an economy has to be absorbed before growth then leads to hiring. With that accepted, there is still a lot of pain in the labor market that is not being tempered by economic expansion signals. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Nov 12 09 19:46 GMT |
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So it indeed has been. As this short quote from the Executive Summary of our 2009 Annual Outlook (published in December 2008) neatly summarized, the economic recovery faces a number of secular challenges that will alter the pace and composition of growth. For many decision-makers, the outlook for 2010 suggests continued change and adjustment to an altered reality of more government/less private sector contributions to growth, greater caution/less leverage for consumer spending, greater prudence/less speculation in lending and the importance of exports in moving the U.S. economy. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Nov 09 09 13:47 GMT |
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The tide has turned for the global economy with U.S. real GDP posting a stronger-than-expected increase in the third quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) citing Australia’s good economic performance as a reason for raising the policy rate and China recording a breathtaking 8.9% increase in third-quarter output. Canada, the United Kingdom and the Eurozone have yet to produce clear indications that their economies are out of recession, but conditions are improving and we expect reports of positive growth soon. Central banks are cautious, however, with only the RBA of the major central banks we cover starting to unwind monetary policy stimulus. Given the deep hole in economic activity, it is likely to be a long time before other banks will be in a position to follow the RBA’s lead, with hikes expected to come in the latter part of 2010 and continuing in 2011. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Nov 09 09 13:42 GMT |
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Foreign exchange rate volatility remained fairly intense last month. Interest rates were calmer but here too tensions have increased, as financial markets give more thought to when some of the extraordinary loosening of monetary policy seen over the last year will start to be reversed. On the foreign currency front, increased signs of economic recovery are generally keeping the US dollar under selling pressure. Some countries have already started to raise interest rates, like Norway and Australia (the latter twice in as many central bank meetings). More countries will follow in the months ahead. On the basis of our forecast that global economic recovery is being led by the emerging market countries, we look for a number of these to hike rates in early 2010. Looking at gdp figures so far for Q3, which showed doubledigit annualised increases in Singapore, South Korea and China, we would not be amazed if these countries were amongst the first tranche that either raise rates or signal an increase. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Oct 20 09 16:31 GMT |
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Gold prices have surged in recent months, which some observers claim is a clear warning that inflation will soon turn sharply higher as it did in the late 1970s. However, other forward-looking market-based inflation indicators do not support this hypothesis. Inflation indicators such as bond yields, consumer expectations and TIPS spreads have been running at fairly depressed levels, which suggest inflation will likely remain benign.1 If the spike in gold prices is not a sign of looming inflation, why are gold prices at a record high? |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Oct 06 09 15:42 GMT |
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With the recession drawing to a close, the focus has shifted to the shape of the recovery and the implications for the eventual rebalancing of monetary policy. TD Economics believes that the most likely scenario is a gradual economic expansion in 2010, which will do little to absorb the significant slack that has developed in the form of unemployed workers and unused plants and equipment. The implication is that inflation is not a major risk next year. In fact, core inflation is expected to dip below 1% in the first half of 2010 (see TD Observation "Canadian Inflation to Remain Under Wraps" July 23, 2009). While the recovery will gain momentum in 2011, price pressures are expected to remain in check. This backdrop suggests that the Bank of Canada can deliver on its conditional commitment not to raise rates until June 2010, and it might be able to wait until late next year to begin gradually tightening policy. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Sep 24 09 20:48 GMT |
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The dollar has followed a downward trend over the past six months, weakening against the currencies of other major economies and developing countries alike. Some observers claim that the dollar's depreciation reflects unease among foreigners about the U.S. fiscal outlook. However, there is very little evidence to support this hypothesis. Purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury securities by private foreign investors and foreign central banks have remained strong during the recent period of dollar weakness. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Sep 14 09 19:04 GMT |
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Selling pressure on the dollar remained in August, as the US economic recovery lagged that of Germany and France, and even Japan. Sterling moved like the US dollar in the last month, with the pound sagging a little against the euro, but gaining versus the US currency. There are increasing signs that the US and UK economies will return to growth in Q3. At that point (the figures are due to be released in late October), the US dollar in particular could find support. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Sep 14 09 18:39 GMT |
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One year has passed since Lehman Brothers folded, and the global economy has begun to recover. The decision by policy makers to met-out discretionary punishment to some financial firms and not others transformed a financial crisis into a global run on the bank, raising the cost of stabilizing both the global financial system and the global economy. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Sep 09 09 16:57 GMT |
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Forecasts for economic growth during the second half of this year and 2010 have been steadily ratcheted up as most of the monthly economic indicators have come in better than expected. We have raised our own estimate modestly. We now see real GDP rising at a 3.7 percent annual rate, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than one month ago. Estimates for real GDP growth during the fourth quarter and 2010 are essentially the same as they were one month ago, and our first look at 2011 calls for real GDP to rise 2.5 percent. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Sep 09 09 16:52 GMT |
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Upbeat economic data dominated in August especially in the United States where the improvement in housing statistics and auto sales stole the headlines. Globally, talk of the end of the recessions in Germany, France and Canada and more positive news from Australia bolstered expectations that the world economy is tracking a course for positive growth in the second half of 2009. Investors piled into riskier assets for most of August, although a healthy dose of caution was evident into monthend as investors debate the relative strength of the recovery trend. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Trade The News |
Sep 04 09 15:09 GMT |
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Measured from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the global financial crisis will have its one year anniversary this month. Lehman went into its final death spiral last September, imploding as the Fed and Treasury decided to use the demise of the relatively small investment bank as a lesson to Wall Street about moral hazard. This decision has been labeled the regulators' biggest blunder, as it exposed the intricate web of credit relationships between the world's largest financial institutions, nearly causing a domino effect across the financial sector. |
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Latest Long Term Forecasts |
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