|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Nov 14 06 05:38 GMT |
|
|
In the last report on September 7th I highlighted a target around 152.15 in around 8 weeks - that is around now. Indeed, we have reached 151.47 and while we do need to leave open the chance of a spike higher to the 152.15 area, I have a feeling that we have already seen the end of the current rally. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Oct 26 06 08:14 GMT |
|
|
The Australian Dollar has been in a narrowing sideways trading range for the past 3 years and this would appear to be part of a corrective pattern within an underlying multi-year rally. This being the case we should be expecting the A$ to begin on a sustained rally before very long and last approximately 9-11 months. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Oct 16 06 08:02 GMT |
|
|
I have long considered the long term picture here to be more of a super-cycle triangle and as yet it is the best interpretation of the currency pair that I have. The implication of this is two-fold: First price peaks and troughs may well divergence from shorter term cycle peaks and troughs which tends to occur due to the confused nature of erratic trading that can occur within a triangle pattern. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 05:08 GMT |
|
|
In the third quarter of 2006 volatility in the EUR/USD reached lows not seen since the launch of the single currency in 1999. The pair's range contracted to 450 points over the course of three months and over the last six weeks of the quarter ranges compressed to a mere 250 points. While such price stability may have put smiles on the faces of central bankers it offered few profitable opportunities to traders as lack of momentum frustrated both bulls and bears. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 05:03 GMT |
|
|
The second half of 2006 has brought about major changes in Japan. For the first half of the year, Japan's currency fluctuated aimlessly against its G7 counterparts with contracting ranges signaling that we could see a major move on the horizon. In the second half, a major move did occur as the Japanese yen fell to a year to date low against the US dollar and a record low against the Euro. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:59 GMT |
|
|
Since the sizable move in the British pound early in the second quarter, the GBPUSD has been relegated to range trading. In fact, from the middle of August through the opening days of October, the pair has been unable to move beyond 1.9125 or below 1.8600. This inability to break from its otherwise tight exchange constraints comes despite a surprise hike in the nation's benchmark lending rate and a number of indicators supporting the possibility of another, similar shift in the months ahead. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:56 GMT |
|
|
If you looked at the performance of the Swiss Franc in the third quarter of 2006, you would not be able to tell that the Swiss economy continued its rapid expansion in the third quarter with manufacturing, construction and foreign trade as the major driving forces. On September 14th, the Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bps to a 3-month Libor mid-target rate of 1.75%. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:52 GMT |
|
|
The US - Canadian dollar currency pair traded within a relatively tight range throughout the third quarter fluctuating between a high of 1.1460 and a low of 1.10958. Oil prices have fallen significantly over the month of September and the Canadian dollar is finally beginning to react. Whether we see further losses in the Canadian dollar will depend on a number of key factors in the domestic and global economy. Namely, can the country sustain current levels of growth despite a currency near 18-year highs? |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:48 GMT |
|
|
The Australian dollar rose at a furious pace in the first half of the third quarter as inflation remained well above the central bank's 3 percent target, pushing traders to bet on increasing interest rates in August. The interest rate hike was delivered, but the Australian dollar did not have enough momentum to extend its rally above 77 cents as gold and base metal prices began to tumble and economic data took a turn for the worse. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:45 GMT |
|
|
After having sold off significantly in the beginning of the year, the third quarter has proven to be extremely positive for the New Zealand dollar. The currency has rallied over 10 percent against the US dollar since the beginning of the quarter as the country's high yield continued to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the underlying currency.. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Oct 11 06 15:51 GMT |
|
|
We currently believe that the ECB is going to hike rates again before the end of the year. But, with the onset of a rise in the German VAT (value added tax), there are concerns about German consumption and the impact this could have on Euro-zone consumption as a whole. This means that the ECB is likely to slip into a more data dependent mode with the onset of 2007. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Oct 09 06 03:42 GMT |
|
|
The U.S. current account deficit continued to widen in the second quarter. Not only did the deficit in the trade balance, which records exports and imports of goods and services, grow larger, but the deficit in the income balance also widened a bit and unilateral transfers abroad increased. However, the incipient stabilization in the real trade balance, which measures volumes of exports and imports, is a hopeful sign. If history is any guide, the current account deficit could begin to narrow later this year or early in 2007. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Sep 27 06 08:49 GMT |
|
|
The long term chart is not an easy one to read and as we move forward there will need to be constant assessment of the potential wave structures that may appear. The problem we face is that on a multi-year basis we simply do not have enough data history to judge just what is happening The favored two scenarios are a long term sideways correction or possibly a three wave rally that could rise to as high as 2.3500-2.4500 before corrections which will probably last well into our retirements… This second scenario is such a large call that I prefer to place this as secondary but keep it in the back of my mind. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Sep 21 06 08:02 GMT |
|
|
The picture in all three time frames are consistent with cycles lows due at this time, bullish divergences in all three and once a trend resistance line is broken around 1.1294 there should be a good movement higher in price. The trend indicators used - the Pivot Cloud and Trailing Stop have been following the weekly and monthly downtrend with this current recovery beginning to threaten a move above the Cloud.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Sep 14 06 07:44 GMT |
|
|
Looking at the charts in Dollar-Swiss it is difficult to generate a firm view that has clear cut, definite signals. However, the consistent message across the three charts is the bullish cycles which should generate an acceleration higher in price. Monthly momentum is oversold and with a trend resistance line broken in daily FXS-RSI the implication would appear to be for gains.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Sep 07 06 09:54 GMT |
|
|
Combined with a rise in US core inflation to levels substantially above the "comfort zone", the continuing expansion will cause the Fed to restart the monetary tightening cycle around New Year. The Fed funds rate will be heading for 6 % in 12 months’ time. The ECB on the other hand is likely to pause by early 2007 with the refi rate at 3.5 %. The fundamental need for monetary tightening in Europe appears less clear than in the US, and the ECB reacts with a lag to the swings in the global industrial cycle. Renewed momentum in global growth and a broad-based internal recovery is, however, likely to lead to even higher monetary policy rates in Europe later in 2007. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Aug 09 06 15:40 GMT |
|
|
Non-farm payrolls use to be the most market moving economic indicator for the US dollar, but this is no longer true. Back in April of 2005, we published a report using 2004 data that ranked non-farm payrolls as the single piece of economic data that caused the biggest average daily movement for the US dollar during that year. We have now updated the analysis by looking at the impact of economic data on currency prices between June 2005 and June 2006. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jul 20 06 17:07 GMT |
|
|
In the first quarter of 2006, the volatility in the EUR/USD dropped to near record lows as the currency pair remained trapped in an extremely tight trading range. In the middle of April, the EUR/USD broke out to the upside and began to climb, hitting a high of 1.2980 in early June. The Euro gained strength primarily on US dollar weakness as traders began to look for an end to the US Federal Reserve's tightening cycle. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jul 20 06 17:07 GMT |
|
|
Trading in USD/JPY took on an almost schizophrenic tone in the second quarter of 2006 as the pair traced out a V shaped formation . The yen was buoyed in the first half of the quarter by speculation that the long standing Zero Interest Rate Policy would be lifted soon, only to see those expectations delayed as BOJ Chief Fukui found himself embroiled in insider trading scandal. |
|
Read more...
|
|
