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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:57 GMT |
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2006 was a very interesting year for the Swiss franc, which rallied over 1000 pips against the US dollar, but sold off to six year lows against the Euro. Comparative growth rates as well as divergent monetary policies played a huge role in driving the currency's movements this past year and will probably continue to in the months to come. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:54 GMT |
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The Canadian dollar ends the year not far from where it started against the US dollar, which represents a modest recovery after USD/CAD hit 28 year lows back in June. What was once the pride of Canada, which was their strong currency, is now the source of its biggest problems. As a major trade partner of the US, the increasing value of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar has hurt trade as well as overall economic growth. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:51 GMT |
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With interest rates the second highest of any country that has a top S&P sovereign rating, Australia has been the very clear recipient of foreign funds seeking the highest returns to capital. This has led to tremendous carry trade interest, with traders selling lower-yielding currencies such as the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen to buy the Aussie dollar. Subsequent pressures on overall currency valuation are undeniable, with the AUDJPY currency pair at its highest levels since 1997. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:48 GMT |
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After consolidating for most of the fourth quarter, the New Zealand dollar ended 2006 virtually unchanged after having fallen to an over two year low below 60 cents thanks to strong carry trade interest from macro funds and other large speculators. Still sporting the highest yielding interest rate of the major industrialized economies, plenty of bid interest continues to bolster the underlying currency, especially against low interest rate currencies like the Japanese yen. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Nov 30 06 05:55 GMT |
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In summary of all three charts the strong implication of the structure suggests that while we can expect to see additional gains in the short to medium term, we are actually quite close to a major peak which I estimate will be in the region of the 1.3340-1.3504 area and should occur by the end of this year approximately. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Nov 28 06 08:11 GMT |
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Along with a slowing US economy the global industrial slowdown has matured further in the autumn. While we expect the global industrial cycle to edge further down in the coming months, resilient domestic demand growth in Europe and the US will prevent the industrial downturn from developing into a more pronounced global growth slowdown. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Nov 14 06 05:38 GMT |
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In the last report on September 7th I highlighted a target around 152.15 in around 8 weeks - that is around now. Indeed, we have reached 151.47 and while we do need to leave open the chance of a spike higher to the 152.15 area, I have a feeling that we have already seen the end of the current rally. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Oct 26 06 08:14 GMT |
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The Australian Dollar has been in a narrowing sideways trading range for the past 3 years and this would appear to be part of a corrective pattern within an underlying multi-year rally. This being the case we should be expecting the A$ to begin on a sustained rally before very long and last approximately 9-11 months. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Oct 16 06 08:02 GMT |
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I have long considered the long term picture here to be more of a super-cycle triangle and as yet it is the best interpretation of the currency pair that I have. The implication of this is two-fold: First price peaks and troughs may well divergence from shorter term cycle peaks and troughs which tends to occur due to the confused nature of erratic trading that can occur within a triangle pattern. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 05:08 GMT |
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In the third quarter of 2006 volatility in the EUR/USD reached lows not seen since the launch of the single currency in 1999. The pair's range contracted to 450 points over the course of three months and over the last six weeks of the quarter ranges compressed to a mere 250 points. While such price stability may have put smiles on the faces of central bankers it offered few profitable opportunities to traders as lack of momentum frustrated both bulls and bears. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 05:03 GMT |
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The second half of 2006 has brought about major changes in Japan. For the first half of the year, Japan's currency fluctuated aimlessly against its G7 counterparts with contracting ranges signaling that we could see a major move on the horizon. In the second half, a major move did occur as the Japanese yen fell to a year to date low against the US dollar and a record low against the Euro. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:59 GMT |
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Since the sizable move in the British pound early in the second quarter, the GBPUSD has been relegated to range trading. In fact, from the middle of August through the opening days of October, the pair has been unable to move beyond 1.9125 or below 1.8600. This inability to break from its otherwise tight exchange constraints comes despite a surprise hike in the nation's benchmark lending rate and a number of indicators supporting the possibility of another, similar shift in the months ahead. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:56 GMT |
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If you looked at the performance of the Swiss Franc in the third quarter of 2006, you would not be able to tell that the Swiss economy continued its rapid expansion in the third quarter with manufacturing, construction and foreign trade as the major driving forces. On September 14th, the Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bps to a 3-month Libor mid-target rate of 1.75%. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:52 GMT |
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The US - Canadian dollar currency pair traded within a relatively tight range throughout the third quarter fluctuating between a high of 1.1460 and a low of 1.10958. Oil prices have fallen significantly over the month of September and the Canadian dollar is finally beginning to react. Whether we see further losses in the Canadian dollar will depend on a number of key factors in the domestic and global economy. Namely, can the country sustain current levels of growth despite a currency near 18-year highs? |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:48 GMT |
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The Australian dollar rose at a furious pace in the first half of the third quarter as inflation remained well above the central bank's 3 percent target, pushing traders to bet on increasing interest rates in August. The interest rate hike was delivered, but the Australian dollar did not have enough momentum to extend its rally above 77 cents as gold and base metal prices began to tumble and economic data took a turn for the worse. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 14 06 04:45 GMT |
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After having sold off significantly in the beginning of the year, the third quarter has proven to be extremely positive for the New Zealand dollar. The currency has rallied over 10 percent against the US dollar since the beginning of the quarter as the country's high yield continued to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the underlying currency.. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Oct 11 06 15:51 GMT |
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We currently believe that the ECB is going to hike rates again before the end of the year. But, with the onset of a rise in the German VAT (value added tax), there are concerns about German consumption and the impact this could have on Euro-zone consumption as a whole. This means that the ECB is likely to slip into a more data dependent mode with the onset of 2007. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Oct 09 06 03:42 GMT |
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The U.S. current account deficit continued to widen in the second quarter. Not only did the deficit in the trade balance, which records exports and imports of goods and services, grow larger, but the deficit in the income balance also widened a bit and unilateral transfers abroad increased. However, the incipient stabilization in the real trade balance, which measures volumes of exports and imports, is a hopeful sign. If history is any guide, the current account deficit could begin to narrow later this year or early in 2007. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Sep 27 06 08:49 GMT |
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The long term chart is not an easy one to read and as we move forward there will need to be constant assessment of the potential wave structures that may appear. The problem we face is that on a multi-year basis we simply do not have enough data history to judge just what is happening The favored two scenarios are a long term sideways correction or possibly a three wave rally that could rise to as high as 2.3500-2.4500 before corrections which will probably last well into our retirements… This second scenario is such a large call that I prefer to place this as secondary but keep it in the back of my mind. |
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