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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by ForexManage |
Mar 10 08 17:04 GMT |
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The last move down of the USDCHF pair was in the magnitude of what people can call "shock and awe". It is easy to feel an urge to enter and trying to catch the "falling knife" in such developments. For those investors, that think the pair has arrived to the end of the road down, we show this long term chart (monthly). The following technical points are telling us that the drop has some more way to go, after a rebound from the current oversold situation: |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mar 03 08 08:56 GMT |
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Though financial markets saw patches of sunshine in February, the environment remains unusually hostile. Stock markets have generally traded sideways, but financials' lack of performance has been noteworthy. Equally, bond markets corrected in the first part of the month but interest rates have fallen sharply during the past week. Credit markets have been outright gloomy and IPOs have been pulled from markets in record volumes. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Feb 16 08 05:50 GMT |
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One of the correlations that have become water cooler talk in the FX world is the relationship between Currencies and Equities, or more specifically the Dow and Carry trades. Over the past few years, we have often seen these two underlying assets rise in tandem. However with global equities, bonds, commodities and other risky assets seeing extreme volatility, this relationship is breaking. So, is this a temporary divergence or is the correlation destined to breakdown for good? |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Feb 15 08 05:24 GMT |
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In my last report in October last year I identified that weekly cycles were due to find a high around the end of the year to give way to a more bullish Dollar picture for 2008. I identified a target somewhere between 1.4800 and 1.5000. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by CMC Markets NY |
Feb 06 08 22:26 GMT |
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We expect the dollar and the yen to emerge as the broad winners in February, dragging the European and antipodean currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) lower amid deepening signs of a slowdown in the Eurozone and the UK , and further reduction in global risk appetite. We do not anticipate the Fed to be forced into an inter-meeting rate cut this month partly due to Fed Chairman Bernanke's scheduled Congressional testimony on the economy next Thursday, which will act as the next driver of market interest rates. Renewed sharp losses in equities will inevitably trigger speculation of an inter-meeting move, but the Fed is expected to hold off as the past 225-bps cuts have yet to take effect into the full economy. We expect another 125-bps in fed funds rate cuts for the year. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Feb 06 08 11:49 GMT |
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Nothing has weighed more heavily on the greenback than the steady deterioration in interest rates and the month of December offered little solace to dollar bulls as rates declined another 25bp to 4.25%. As we look to the future there appears to be little relief in sight as US rates are expected to be lowered further. One key reason for the dovishness is the sudden drop in job growth as NFP printed a woeful 18K against forecasts of 70K. Even the rising threat of inflation as CPI hovers above 3% is unlikely to deter the Fed from easing as growth concerns take precedence over price pressures. One bright note is that capital flows continue to improve, but if that last bastion of strength disappears there will be little left to support the buck. - BS. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Feb 06 08 11:38 GMT |
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A number of developments over the past six weeks have led us to revise our outlook for the U.S. economy. Continued deterioration in housing markets, volatility in equity markets and weakness in employment are expected to curb consumer spending and temper economic growth to a pace of 0.6% in the first half of 2008, from our original estimate of 0.9%. But hope is on the horizon. The feed through of past aggressive action by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the expected passage of a fiscal stimulus package in the range of $146 to $157 billion will bring significant relief to consumers in the second half of this year and into 2009. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Feb 04 08 18:08 GMT |
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Financial markets witnessed dramatic movements in January. Sharp declines in equity markets and interest rates are testimonies to a lowering of expectations for the economic cycle to a point where a US recession is close to being priced in. The underperformance of emerging markets suggests that investors are now abandoning the idea that large parts of the world economy can decouple from the US economic downturn. Finally, the widening of credit risk premiums to new highs is a clear indication that financial markets are still suffering from the credit crisis that began last summer. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Feb 04 08 17:56 GMT |
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After hitting a low of US$0.6179 (C$1.6184)1 in January 2002, the Canadian dollar has stormed back with a vengeance, blasting through parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time in over 30 years on September 20, 2007, and peaking at a new high mark of US$1.1030 (C$0.9066) on November 7, 2007. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Jan 29 08 08:32 GMT |
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Financial markets in most countries have been in turbulence in recent days due, at least in part, to growing concerns about prospects of a U.S. recession and implications thereof for growth in foreign economies. Although our view is that the U.S. economy will narrowly miss recession in 2008, we proceed in this report under the assumption that the U.S. economy will indeed experience a downturn this year. Would the rest of the world follow the United States into recession? If not the entire world, then which countries would be most affected by an American recession? |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 23 08 14:49 GMT |
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Our call for a weaker dollar in the coming months is consistent with past performance during recessions. Our prediction of a reversal of the dollar bear trend between 6 and 12 months from now against most currencies also seems to fit the picture pretty well. Our forecasts are biased for a stronger yen, even a year from now (USD/JPY at 105), is consistent with the outcome of the 1990 recession, as is the dollar's performance during the past three months. Interestingly, our study of past easing cycles also picks 1989 as the one that mostly resembles what we see today. As mentioned, that period was characterised by a massive rise in debt exposure and the Savings and Loan crisis. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by ForexManage |
Jan 21 08 14:47 GMT |
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Despite the fact that we really believe that the USDJPY will rebound from here in the very short term (from 106 to maybe 110), we found necessary to remind our readers about the long term view in this pair. In fact nothing has really changed since our last piece on this subject. In mid July of 2007 started the most bearish sequence of technical events: |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 21 08 12:01 GMT |
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AUD is highly overvalued compared to levels implied by long-run equilibrium and will have to see a significant correction. When this correction will take place, however, and how gradual it will be, is uncertain. While relative growth and interest rates remain favourable, three factors will weigh on AUD in 2008, as global growth slows, commodity prices peak, and global risk aversion remains high or rise. We will therefore consider going short AUD when we see one of these triggers. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Karoll Financial House |
Jan 18 08 15:41 GMT |
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As a whole, there is no change in the wave count since the last update. The chart shows the movement started from 0.8563 (February 2001). As I wrote many times I think that the previous downtrend ended at this level (with a reversal triangle) and started the current very strong up-move in favor of the euro. It is obvious that the first wave from the up-move ended at 1.3664 (December 2004), followed by a corrective wave down to 1.1639 (November 2005) and subsequent resuming of the up-move i.e. we have three waves till now for the movement started from 0.8563. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Karoll Financial House |
Jan 15 08 15:58 GMT |
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The suggestion form June 2007 for a giant terminal impulse started from 101.66 (January 2005) looks the best scenario at the moment. This count is presented on the chart and suggests that the terminal impulse finished at 124.12 (June 2007). We saw a sharp sell-off from the last level and the interesting here is the fact, that the down move should accelerate from here and we should see much lower prices in coming weeks and months. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Jyske Bank |
Jan 14 08 10:02 GMT |
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Here at the beginning of 2008 the uncertainty about the development in the financial markets has not been higher in several years. This uncertainty has resulted in falling equity prices, lower yields on long-term government bonds and widening yield spreads. The uncertainty has been fuelled by concerns about a recession in the US as well as continuing turmoil in the banking sector and the money market. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jan 09 08 17:56 GMT |
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The global growth cycle has peaked. So far, the slowdown has been led by the US and the UK, which have been mostly exposed to the credit crisis. During the year the weakness will spread to Europe and to some extent emerging markets. However, we still expect emerging markets to out-perform relative to developed economies. Consequently, the global central banks will begin to ease monetary policy, as rising concerns on growth will outweigh the inflationary risks from tight global commodity and labour markets. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Jan 03 08 06:20 GMT |
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The Fed will need to cut the federal funds rate twice more in the first quarter. Recent actions suggest the Fed is committed to ensuring liquidity and the stability of global money markets. However, with renewed growth in the U.S. economy and lingering concerns of inflation, the FOMC will be in a position to begin tightening by year-end. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 02 08 19:58 GMT |
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Selling US dollars was one of the best trades of 2007. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen as much as 13 percent against the Euro, 10 percent against the Japanese Yen and 8.5 percent against the British pound. The story of the dollar's weakness also captured headlines around the world. It became so pronounced that supermodel Gisele announced her preference for being paid in Euros over dollars while rapper Jay-Z flashed Euros and not dollars in his new music video. |
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