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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 02 08 19:52 GMT |
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The British Pound saw an incredible reversal to end the year's trade, as one of the darlings of global currency markets quickly turned into a primary victim of subprime-linked financial market duress. Indeed, the GBP initially scaled 26-year heights at $2.1160 before plummeting to its lowest in four months to end the year's trading. The currency had initially rallied on hopes that the Bank of England would continue to raise domestic interest rates through the medium term, but increasingly poor financial market conditions and falling inflation levels allowed the central bank to actually cut rates for the first time in over two years. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 02 08 19:46 GMT |
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In the last quarter of 2007, the Swiss franc staged an impressive rally against the U.S. dollar on evidence that the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the United States was becoming too small to compensate investors for assuming risks on the increasingly volatile U.S. financial markets. More specifically, from October 1st to the middle of December, the U.S. dollar fell nearly three percent against the Swiss franc, trading from a high of 1.1894 reached on October 9th to a low of 1.0885 on November 23rd. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 02 08 19:43 GMT |
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The Canadian dollar, among the best performing currencies over the first three quarters of 2007, saw an abrupt and extensive retracement through the final months of the year. However, this turn in fortunes didn't come before significant records were broken. Towards the end of the third quarter, the Canadian dollar was pushing multi-decade highs against its US counterpart. Soon thereafter USDCAD dropped to parity, then to a 165 year low and finally a record low of 0.9055 before finally exhausting its run. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 02 08 19:35 GMT |
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While the Australian dollar managed to post a 23-year high against the US dollar in the early days of November, the currency pair fell from 94 cents to 87 cents by the end of the year, erasing much of the early speculation that the Aussie will follow the Canadian dollar to parity with the US dollar. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 02 08 19:32 GMT |
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The New Zealand dollar's price movements against the US dollar during the fourth quarter of 2007 were relatively placid compared to the quarter prior, when the NZD/USD whipped around in a more than a 1,000 point range. However, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remaining focused on inflation risks - as consumer prices are expected to remain uncomfortably high going into early 2008 - the Kiwi dollar has remained supported and continues to rise within an ascending channel. Until the central bank shifts their inflation stance to a more neutral posture, the New Zealand currency is unlikely to lose its luster as one of the best high yielders in the currency market.. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Aspen Trading |
Dec 27 07 14:14 GMT |
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The Fed's current message of wanting to achieve 'modest growth' puts investors at a loss as to where the Fed's focus really is. I can only assume that the overriding fear of inflation is what is keeping the Fed from not being more aggressive in its stance to the current credit crisis. As is always the case, the situation has evolved to become a much bigger problem than many had first envisioned. Various spreads have blown out to new highs and the risk of further damage to credit markets is a real possibility. This scenario is quite deflationary and should alleviate the inflation concerns. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 12 07 14:53 GMT |
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Changes in interest rate expectations have been the main force behind many trends in the currency market. However, since interest rate expectations are both difficult to obtain and hard to measure, many traders prefer to stay away from them. In this article, we argue that interest rate expectations do matter for the currency trader and can be measured by using Libor rates with different maturity. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by ForexManage |
Nov 21 07 13:11 GMT |
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We look today at the Monthly chart of the USDJPY. This pair is doing exactly what we expected when it reversed into the triangle (violet 5). The re-entry was followed by a break of a rising wedge which is a very powerful bearish pattern. In the same time the pair did cross its 20 monthly simple moving average and immediately re-tested it from below. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Karoll Financial House |
Nov 01 07 17:19 GMT |
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The chart shows the movement started from 0.8563 (February 2001). As I wrote many times I think that the previous downtrend ended at this level (with a reversal triangle) and started the current very strong up-move in favor of the euro. It is obvious that the first wave from the up-move ended at 1.3664 (December 2004), followed by a corrective wave down to 1.1639 (November 2005) and subsequent resuming of the up-move i.e. we have three waves till now for the movement started from 0.8563. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:46 GMT |
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The third quarter of 2007 was a great time to be long Euros. In July when we published our quarterly Forex market outlook, the Euro was trading at 1.3650. Three months later, the currency has rallied 630 points against the US dollar to hit a record high of 1.4282 on the last trading day of the quarter. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:43 GMT |
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Risk aversion wrecked havoc on long USDJPY positions in the third quarter of 2007 as the credit crunch and the stock market swoon in late July and early August created massive liquidation in the carry trade. GBPJPY lost more than 3000 points in just one month, EURJPY lost nearly 2000 points and USDJPY dropped from a high of 124.13 to a low of 111.97 before finally finding some support. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:41 GMT |
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After a rough and tumble third quarter that saw the British Pound rocket to 26-year highs of 2.0657 before plummeting 800 points lower in less than a month, the currency has found itself holding on to the 2.000 figure in the early days of the fourth quarter. This strength has been somewhat surprising after UK mortgage lender Northern Rock experienced an all-out bank run, leaving many analysts wondering if there are other financial institutions in distress. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:38 GMT |
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In the third quarter of 2007, the Swiss franc rallied sharply against the U.S. dollar on evidence that problems in the U.S. subprime market and the liquidity shortage in the money markets were creating serious problems for the world's largest economy. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:35 GMT |
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The strength of the Canadian dollar dominated currency markets throughout the third quarter of 2007 as solid economic growth as well as record oil prices drove the loonie to parity with the US dollar. The multi-decade event was heralded as the beginning of the end for the US currency, such claims are likely overblown, but the USDCAD downtrend is undeniable. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:28 GMT |
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The Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies in the third quarter. Despite a sharp sell-off between the end of July and middle of August, the currency raced to an 18 year high against the US dollar on the last trading day of the quarter. It then went on to hit a 23 year high the following week, raising the question of whether the Australian dollar will be the next currency to be even with the US dollar. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Oct 12 07 17:26 GMT |
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During the third quarter, the New Zealand dollar once again achieved the role of biggest market mover. However, whereas this title referred to astounding gains made through the first half of the year, this past quarter's increase in FX volatility opened the door to a considerable drawdown for the once high-flying New Zealand dollar (kiwi). |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Oct 04 07 07:44 GMT |
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In the last report back in April I had forecast a pullback at that time from the 1.3666 area but which would see a correction only before rising into the summer months to around 1.40. This worked quite well although the final high in July was at 1.3851. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Jyske Bank |
Sep 20 07 14:06 GMT |
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The turmoil in the financial markets has now lasted for a couple of months. Especially the money market has been hit, and hence the spread between money-market rates and government bond rates has widened considerably, see chart. There are no signs that the confidence crisis in the money market will disappear tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Sep 13 07 06:30 GMT |
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The current technical position of Dollar-Yen is really quite interesting. I have to admit to finding the actual wave structure just a little confusing. Normal Fibonacci relationships have eluded this currency pair recently and the correct pattern is not 100% clear. |
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