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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 11 07 15:19 GMT |
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As we enter the second quarter of 2007 the Australian economy is operating at full speed and continues to exert inflationary pressure throughout the system. This steady rise in inflation could force the RBA to increase the benchmark interest rate in order to maintain both sustainable growth and price stability. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 11 07 15:16 GMT |
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The New Zealand dollar does not have the deep liquidity of the US dollar or the euro. Instead, the kiwi's appeal relies on its very high benchmark rate. At 7.50 percent, few advanced economy currencies can beat the New Zealand dollar for yield. On the other hand, the threat of a broad economic slowdown looms as the nation's business sector is weighed down by the same high interest rate that has boosted the currency. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Mar 26 07 14:19 GMT |
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Federal Reserve could enter a major easing cycle that could lead to significant (i.e., more than we project) downward pressure on the greenback. Would the dollar collapse under such a scenario? Probably not. Recall that in late 2003 and early 2004 when the dollar was sliding rapidly many central banks in Asia, especially in Japan and China, bought massive amounts of dollars in the foreign exchange market to help stem the downward pressure against the greenback. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mar 16 07 10:17 GMT |
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In the US, the jitters in the subprime mortgage market are unlikely to have major macroeconomic ramifications. Contrarily, the turnaround in the housing market will begin to support the economy and the manufacturing sector will strengthen. Hence, growth has bottomed out and is heading for trend. Given continued inflationary pressures this will force the Fed to hike by late 2007. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Karoll Financial House |
Feb 26 07 14:07 GMT |
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My working count suggests that we have a triple corrective combination started from 0.8563 (February 2002). I think that we are currently in its third phase which is presented on the chart. It could be a flat or a triangle. In the flat scenario, the currently developing wave (C) should be a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) - my previous suggestion for the structure of wave (C) was exactly the same pattern. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Feb 23 07 04:27 GMT |
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The Dollar has performed strongly against the Yen for some while now and some suggest there appears to be no end for the rally. However, there is an end in sight and not too far away but the reaction lower does look like it will be a correction rather than a larger reversal in the Yen's fortunes. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Feb 23 07 03:02 GMT |
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The New Year is just beginning and the Bank of Japan has already raised interest rates once. Their intentions are to continue to normalize interest rates and it is just a matter of when. If the economic recovery in Japan accelerates, the central bank may be compelled to raise rates sooner rather than later. The market is very short yen at the moment and becoming even more so over the past few days because carry trades remain lucrative. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Karoll Financial House |
Jan 25 07 11:04 GMT |
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The fall started from 133.81 (April 2002) is a complex corrective combination which ended at 104.18 (May 2005) upon me. My analysis suggests that it is wave (C) of a multi years sideways movement in a triangle. The current move up is wave (D) of this triangle which is developing as a flat correction with wave C of (D) under way now. The said wave C of (D) could be an impulse or a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Jan 06 07 03:36 GMT |
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Going into 2007, traders will need to determine whether daily ranges will continue to slim as the months wear along or if a rebound of volatility is around the bend in order to pick the correct trading style. While the structural changes mentioned above are still developing for the forex market, the state of yield spreads may be the number one defining factor - at least for the first quarter. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Mellon Foreign Exchange |
Jan 02 07 02:43 GMT |
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Recent data weakness in the US has raised doubts over whether the FOMC will proceed with any further tightening in 2007. However, from a domestic point of view real US interest rates remain historically low, at least in terms of their being restrictive enough to generate a true peak for the economic cycle, so further tightening would not surprise. The big uncertainty is how far the current mid-cycle type slowdown extends, although it will have to be fairly marked to warrant a rate cut. Our core view is that activity strengthens at some point over the next two quarters and that the Fed hikes again in Q3. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Dec 28 06 09:04 GMT |
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The value of the dollar going forward will depend on the interplay of the current account deficit and net capital inflows. As discussed above, the U.S. current account deficit may begin to narrow somewhat in 2007, but it likely will remain “large” for quite some time. Consequently, the United States will remain beholden to foreign investors to finance its gaping current account deficit. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 19:05 GMT |
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2006 was marked by significant divergence between the Eurozone and United States in both economic growth and interest rate direction. While US GDP growth dropped markedly from a high of 5.6% in Q1 of 2006 to 2.0% in Q3, Eurozone economic performance headed in the opposite direction rising steadily from 2.2% at the start of the year to reach 2.7% by Q3. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 19:02 GMT |
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In 2006, the Japanese Yen was one of the currency market's biggest losers. However if you have only been watching the value of USD/JPY, which ended the year less than a percent away from where it started trading in January, you may have not realized that. Instead, the Yen lost most of its value against the Euro and British pound, with the currency falling 10 percent against the former and 12 percent against the latter. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:59 GMT |
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After range trading for the entire first quarter, the British pound broke out at the beginning of April to climb to a high just above 1.90 by mid May, marking its biggest 6 month gain against the US dollar in 16 years. However, price had a difficult time breaking above that level until November, when the GBP/USD surged nearly 1000 pips to a 14 year high of 1.9846, leaving traders wondering if the pair would be capable of targeting the elusive 2.0000 handle. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:57 GMT |
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2006 was a very interesting year for the Swiss franc, which rallied over 1000 pips against the US dollar, but sold off to six year lows against the Euro. Comparative growth rates as well as divergent monetary policies played a huge role in driving the currency's movements this past year and will probably continue to in the months to come. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:54 GMT |
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The Canadian dollar ends the year not far from where it started against the US dollar, which represents a modest recovery after USD/CAD hit 28 year lows back in June. What was once the pride of Canada, which was their strong currency, is now the source of its biggest problems. As a major trade partner of the US, the increasing value of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar has hurt trade as well as overall economic growth. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:51 GMT |
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With interest rates the second highest of any country that has a top S&P sovereign rating, Australia has been the very clear recipient of foreign funds seeking the highest returns to capital. This has led to tremendous carry trade interest, with traders selling lower-yielding currencies such as the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen to buy the Aussie dollar. Subsequent pressures on overall currency valuation are undeniable, with the AUDJPY currency pair at its highest levels since 1997. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by DailyFX |
Dec 22 06 18:48 GMT |
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After consolidating for most of the fourth quarter, the New Zealand dollar ended 2006 virtually unchanged after having fallen to an over two year low below 60 cents thanks to strong carry trade interest from macro funds and other large speculators. Still sporting the highest yielding interest rate of the major industrialized economies, plenty of bid interest continues to bolster the underlying currency, especially against low interest rate currencies like the Japanese yen. |
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Long Term Forecasts |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Nov 30 06 05:55 GMT |
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In summary of all three charts the strong implication of the structure suggests that while we can expect to see additional gains in the short to medium term, we are actually quite close to a major peak which I estimate will be in the region of the 1.3340-1.3504 area and should occur by the end of this year approximately. |
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