|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 06 10 18:29 GMT |
|
|
Risk appetite was given a boost last week on generally positive economic data, which in turn translated in to broad based reversal in the Japanese yen. DOW managed to extend recent rally to close at 10566.2, 213 pts up. Nasdaq even managed to rose to new high of 2327 before closing at 2326. Commodity currencies were impressively strong with Canadian dollar and Australian dollar broadly up against other major currencies. Crude oil rode on strength in stocks and climbed to as high as 82.07 before closing at 81.50. Dollar was mixed and remained in range against Euro even though it did rebound strongly against the Japanese yen. Current development suggested that more upside would be seen in stocks and commodities, which might give some pressure to the greenback and yen in near term. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 05 10 13:27 GMT |
|
|
The Japanese yen is sold off sharply in early US session after slightly better than expected job report from US. Investors once again turn positive on economic recovery and bid up stocks futures. Dollar manages to climb against Euro and Swissy but the strength is so far limited as most major currencies are supported by buying in respective yen crosses. Indeed, Australian dollar rebounds strongly against US dollar as AUD/JPY rose sharply through 81 level. Crude oil also spikes higher to 81.34. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 05 10 05:20 GMT |
|
|
Dollar continues to stay in the middle of recent range ahead of the highly anticipated job report from US. Markets expect the Non-farm payroll report to show another -40k contraction in the job market in February while unemployment rate is expected to rise back to 9.8%. Outlook for manufacturing jobs continued to improve with employment component component of ISM manufacturing index stayed above 50 for the third consecutive month in February and rose to 56.1. However, job in services might drag down the overall picture as employment component of ISM non-manufacturing index stayed below 50 even though rising to 48.6. ADP private job report also showed -20k contraction in February. One more thing to note is the sharp deterioration of consumer confidence in FEbruary to 46, which breaks last July's low of 47.4. We might see the unemployment rate climbs up again in the coming months. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 04 10 14:03 GMT |
|
|
Yen failed to ride on earlier strength and weakens sharply in early US session as three month Lib or dropped below dollar for the first time since August. LIBOR for three month yen loans dropped to 0.251% comparing 0.252% for dollar loans. The greenback can now declare that it's not the most attractively priced currency for carry trades any more. On the other hand, Euro is slightly softer as ECB president Trichet said that will continue to provide euro-zone banks with as much liquidity as they need through its main refinancing operations. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 04 10 05:45 GMT |
|
|
Dollar was sold off sharply overnight as commodities strengthened with crude oil breached 81 level while gold breached 1140 briefly. Nevertheless, the greenback is still kept above well above key near term support levels against European majors as expected. AUD/USD also struggled to take out 0.9070 resistance decisively. There is basically no change in the view that dollar is generally in consolidation only and even in case of another fall, downside should be relatively limited. One exception is versus the Japanese yen where USD/JPY is clearly in a down trend that's still in progress. Indeed, the Japanese yen is gathering momentum in early European session and we'd probably see a retest of recent lows in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY later today. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 03 10 12:44 GMT |
|
|
Markets remain in consolidation mode in early US session. US ADP employment report showed -20k contraction in the private sector in February, slightly worse than expectation of -10k but not too far. January's figure was revised down from -22k to -60k though. Challenger report showed -77.4% yoy drop in planned layoff in February. Dollar is a bit softer against major currencies but there isn't much momentum for deeper fall. Focus will turn to ISM non-manufacturing index and Fed's Beige Book. (Quick update, ISM non-manufacturing index rose more than expected to 53.0 in Feb. Employment component improved to 48.6 but remained in contractionary region below 50. Markets are steady after the release). |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 03 10 06:17 GMT |
|
|
Dollar is mildly lower on news that Greece is going to unveil a new EUR 4.8b deficit cut plan, which include higher tax on tobacco, alcohol and sales, as well as deeper reduction in salaries of state workers. Yield on benchmark 10 year Greek bonds fell to the lowest level since February 12. Meanwhile, CDS linked to the Greek bonds also dropped over 30 basis points to the lowest level since January 18. European majors are seen recovery mildly but still, Euro and Swissy are both limited by near term resistance against dollar for the moment and there is no change in Euro's bearish outlook against commodity currencies. Finalized Eurozone PMI services and retail sales will be released in the European session today. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 02 10 13:20 GMT |
|
|
Canadian dollar is the strongest currency today and extends its strength after an upbeat statement from BoC. Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected and reiterated the conditional commitment to be on hold until end of Q2. NEvertheless, the bank did acknowledged that "level of economic activity in Canada has been slightly higher than the Bank had projected" in the latest MPR. Also core inflation "has been slightly firmer than projected" too. USD/CAD dived through 1.0369 support earlier today and is set to take on 1.0205/0223 support zone. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 02 10 04:29 GMT |
|
|
Australian dollar shrugs off RBA interest rate hike and a better than expected retail sales report and remains in range. RBA restarts the tightening cycle today by raising key interest rate by 25bps to 4.00%. In the accompanying statement, Governor Stevens said that today's decision is a "further step" in the process of bringing interest rate "closer to average". The bank expects growth to be "close to trend" and inflation "close to target" over the coming year. Retail sales released today show stronger than expected growth by 1.2% mom in January. In spite of the strong recovery from 0.8802, AUD/USD is still limited below last week's high of 0.9070 and today's releases did nothing to trigger buying through this resistance yet. The fate of AUD/USD would likely depend on whether dollar index would break out from which side of the 80.09/81.34 range. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 01 10 12:41 GMT |
|
|
Sterling remains the main focus today as selling intensified in European session. Dollar managed to rebound strongly against European majors but stays is soft against yen and commodity currencies. Data from US saw personal spending rose more than expected by 0.5% in January but income growth missed expectation. PCE deflator was unchanged at 2.1% yoy while core PCE moderated slightly to 1.4% yoy. On the other hand, Canadian dollar is lifted mildly by stronger than expected GDP growth of 0.6% mom in December. Focus now turns to ISM manufacturing index. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 01 10 06:17 GMT |
|
|
Sterling drops further across the board as the week starts on concern of the political situation in UK as well as speculation of more quantitative easing from BoE. An opinion poll out on Sunday suggested inconclusive result in this year's general election even though, the ruling Labour Party could remain the biggest party. Yen is steadily in range in spite of broad based rally in Asian stocks. Dollar, on the other hand, recovers mildly as crude oil fails to hold ground after breaking 80 level. A number of important economic data will be released across Atlantic today and we'd look forward to more volatility as the day goes. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 27 10 07:32 GMT |
|
|
The Japanese yen staged a strong rally last week on risk aversion as disappointing data from US triggered much concern on the underlying strength of recovery. Continuous worry on Greece's fiscal problem also held investors back from riskier assets in general. However, in spite of all the problems in Greece and talk of Spain, and new record low in speculative short positions, Euro was rather resilient last week, as especially in commodity currency crosses. On the other hand, selling focus seems to have turned to sterling which dropped through recent lows against major currencies, on concern of even worse fiscal situation and economic outlook in UK. Dollar attempted to resume recent rise but failed as pressured by recovery in Euro as well as resilience in commodities. We'd expect some more consolidation in the greenback in near term but overall develop still favors more upside in dollar going ahead. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 26 10 12:43 GMT |
|
|
Dollar remains steady in range in early US session after release of better than expected Q4 GDP data. GDP growth was revised up from 5.7% annualized to 5.9% versus expectation of downward revision to 5.6%. Markets are lacking a clear direction for the moment except apparent weakness in Sterling. Commodities are providing little guidance as crude oil is struggling around 78 level while gold hovers above 1100. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 26 10 05:46 GMT |
|
|
The Japanese yen pared some gains as US stocks rebounded in late session overnight on comments from St. Louis Fed James Bullard that the U.S. economic recovery is "reasonably good." Yen continued the retreat as Asia stocks recover. Dollar also weakened as the dollar index failed below recent high of 81.34 and as crude oil and gold recovered back to above 78 and 1100 levels. Data released from Japan today saw manufacturing PMI unchanged at 52.5 in February. Headline CPI improved to -1.3% yoy in January. Industrial production rose 2.5% mom in January while retail sales rose 2.6%. At this point, there's no change in yen's near term bullish outlook but dollar might continue to lag behind for a while. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 25 10 12:49 GMT |
|
|
Yen continues to rise on the current wave of risk aversion and extends recent rally in early US session. While Greece's sovereign rating remains the center of focus, worse than expected jobless claim report from US triggers another wave of selling in yen crosses in early US session. Mixed durable goods orders do little help to lift market sentiments. Crude oil dips below 79 level again while gold is pressing 1090 level. US stocks are also set to open lower. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 25 10 05:31 GMT |
|
|
European majors drops through recent low against Japanese yen today as concern on Greece's fiscal deficit is back under spotlight. Standard & Poor's said it may cut Greece's rating again by the end of March on doubt of the country's ability to cut down the huge budget deficit due to weakness in the economy as well as political opposition. Moody's Investors Service also said that sovereign debt rating of Greece would be cut within months if "it appears there are significant deviations from the plan" to cut fiscal deficit. While the Japanese yen rallies across the board, helped by broad based weakness in Asian stocks additionally, dollar follows as gold also drops to as low as 1088.5 today. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 24 10 14:45 GMT |
|
|
Dollar is a touch softer today against most major currencies as Bernanke starts his two days semiannual testimony to congress. In his prepared speech, Bernanke said that low interest rates are still required as US economy is in a "nascent" recovery. He said that sustained recovery will depend on "continued growth in private-sector final demand for goods and service," while are growing at moderate pace only. Fed wills tart to tighten policy "at some point" but Fed anticipates " low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations" to keep rates low for "an extended period." |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 24 10 05:56 GMT |
|
|
Yen and dollar retreat mildly in Asian today as markets stabilized from yesterday's risk aversion moves. Main focus will now turn to Fed Bernanke's two day semiannual congressional testimony. Last week's discount rate hike from Fed was a surprise to the markets considering that it's just a week after Bernanke laid out the exit strategy. Bernanke will likely emphasis again that the discount rate hike is not a broad move to tighten monetary policy but merely an effort to normalize the gap between the discount and target rates. The main question is how Bernanke could ensure markets that how Fed could exit from stimulus measures at the right time, with the right steps, that wouldn't hurt the momentum of recovery. Reactions from the financial markets will have clear reflection of the confidence level of investors directly. |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Market Overview |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 23 10 14:07 GMT |
|
|
Yen rebound strongly today while dollar follows. Positive sentiments fade after disappointment from Germany Ifo business climates and dovish comments from BoE King. Buying of yen intensified after disappointing consumer confidence reading from US. Yen is also lifted as speculation for a Fed hike in near term cooled. Dollar on the other hand, is helped by sharp fall in crude oil which sent it back from intraday high of 80.39 to below 79 level. Data from US saw S&P/Case-Shiller 20 cities home price rose for second consecutive months by 0.3% mom in December, down -3.1% yoy. Conference Board consumer confidence dropped sharply to 10 month low of 46 in February. |
|
Read more...
|
|
