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Reserve Bank of Australia
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Mar 02 10 03:09 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 per cent, effective 3 March 2010. The global economy is growing, and world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011. The expansion is still hesitant in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity. In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, growth has continued to be quite strong. The authorities in some countries are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economies. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 02 10 02:44 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent. The global economy is growing, and world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011. The expansion is still likely to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity. In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, recovery has been much quicker to date, though the Chinese authorities are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economy. Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago. Credit conditions nonetheless remain difficult in the major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness. Concerns regarding some sovereigns have increased. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Dec 01 09 05:59 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 per cent, effective 2 December 2009. The global economy has resumed growth. With economic policies remaining expansionary, growth is likely to continue next year, though it will probably be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis. In China and Asia generally, where financial sectors are not impaired, recovery has been much quicker to date and prospects appear to be for good growth in 2010. Financial markets have improved considerably during 2009, notwithstanding periodic setbacks, and capital flows into Asia and other emerging market regions have been picking up. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Nov 03 09 04:16 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.5 per cent, effective 4 November 2009. The global economy has resumed growth. With economic policy settings likely to remain expansionary for some time, the recovery is likely to continue during 2010 and forecasts have been revised higher. The expansion is generally expected to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis. Prospects for Australia’s Asian trading partners appear to be noticeably better. Growth in China has been very strong, which is having a significant impact on other economies in the region and on commodity markets. For Australia’s trading partner group, growth in 2010 is likely to be close to trend. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Oct 06 09 04:52 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent, effective 7 October 2009. The global economy is resuming growth. With economic policy settings likely to remain expansionary for some time, the recovery will likely continue during 2010 and forecasts are being revised higher. The expansion is generally expected to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis. Prospects for Australia’s Asian trading partners appear to be noticeably better. Growth in China has been very strong, which is having a significant impact on other economies in the region and on commodity markets. For Australia’s trading partner group, growth in 2010 is likely to be close to trend. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Sep 01 09 11:03 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent. With considerable economic policy stimulus in train around the world, the global economy is resuming growth. Growth in China has been very strong, which is having a significant impact on other economies in the region and on commodity markets. The major economies appear to be approaching a turning point. Most observers still expect only modest growth in the world economy in 2010, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, though forecasts have been revised up recently. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Aug 04 09 04:45 GMT |
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With considerable economic stimulus in train around the world, the global economy is stabilising after an earlier sharp contraction in demand. Downside risks to the global outlook have diminished, though they have not disappeared and most observers expect only modest growth overall. There is tentative evidence that the US economy is approaching a turning point, but conditions in Europe are still weakening. Growth in China, in contrast, has been very strong in recent months, which is having an impact on other economies in the region and on commodity markets. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jul 07 09 05:27 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent. The global economy is stabilising, after a sharp contraction in demand during the December and March quarters. Downside risks to the outlook have diminished, with conditions in global financial markets improving this year and action to strengthen balance sheets of key financial institutions under way. Growth in China has strengthened considerably, which is having an impact on other economies in the region, including Australia. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jun 16 09 01:33 GMT |
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Before reviewing the latest indicators of activity in the key economies, members noted that only a small number of countries had recorded growth in real GDP over the past six months, with many countries experiencing large falls. For the world as a whole, GDP outcomes were not likely to be as weak over coming quarters as they were in the December 2008 and March 2009 quarters. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jun 02 09 06:16 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent. Evidence has continued to emerge that the global economy is stabilising, after a sharp contraction during the December and March quarters. The considerable economic policy stimulus in train in most countries is helping to contain the downturn, and should support an eventual recovery. The turnaround is clearest in China and some other emerging countries. Recovery in the major countries is likely to take longer to begin and be slower when it does occur. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
May 05 09 05:23 GMT |
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At its meeting today the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.0 per cent. The global economy contracted further during the first few months of this year. While the near-term outlook remains weak, there are further signs of stabilisation in several countries. The Chinese economy in particular has picked up speed in recent months and many commodity prices have firmed a little. The considerable economic policy stimulus in train in most countries should help contain the downturn and support an eventual recovery. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Apr 21 09 04:29 GMT |
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The economic data that had been released over the past month indicated that the sharp decline in output recorded in many economies in the December quarter had probably been repeated in the March quarter. Output in Australia's trading partners, weighted by their share in world GDP, therefore appeared likely to have declined by around 3 per cent over the year to the March quarter. Revised forecasts from international agencies such as the IMF and OECD now showed an expected fall in output in 2009, for the first time in at least 60 years. The IMF forecasts were for growth of around 2 per cent in 2010, which implicitly assumed a return to growth in the second half of 2009. The latest global growth forecasts of the Bank's staff were more pessimistic for the current year. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Apr 07 09 06:04 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0 per cent, effective 8 April 2009. Recent information from abroad indicates that the contraction in the global economy continued during the first few months of this year, and most assessments of the nearterm outlook have been further marked down. Considerable economic policy stimulus is in train in most countries, the full effects of which are not yet discernible, but which should help contain the downturn over the rest of the year. There are tentative signs of stabilisation in several countries, including China, though it is too early yet to judge how durable these will prove to be. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Mar 03 09 04:06 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.25 per cent. Recent data confirm that the world economy has remained very weak following the sharp decline in demand that occurred late last year. The major industrial economies reported large contractions in output in the December quarter, as did a number of emerging market economies across Asia and eastern Europe. Many countries are likely to be experiencing further falls in output in the current quarter. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 20 09 08:35 GMT |
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Shortly after the Committee last met, the global financial system took a serious turn for the worse. On 15 September 2008, the American firm Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. It was the biggest actual failure of a major American financial institution for many years. While it had been widely known that Lehmans was under immense pressure, when it came the event was still a shock. It triggered a massive re-appraisal of risk, and ushered in a period of the most intense financial turmoil seen in decades. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 10 09 08:36 GMT |
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It is a great pleasure to be here in Kuala Lumpur at this celebration of Bank Negara Malaysia's 50th Anniversary. The two central banks actually have something of a shared history. In the late 1950s, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, as Australia's central bank was then known, seconded officers to assist with the establishment of Bank Negara. One of them, Tan Sri W.H. Wilcock, became Bank Negara's first Governor in 1959. So it is a pleasure indeed to be renewing the relationship in this way here today. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 03 09 02:53 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to reduce the cash rate by a further 100 basis points, to 3.25 per cent, effective 4 February 2009. There was a significant deterioration in world economic conditions late in 2008. The effects on household and business confidence of the financial turmoil following Lehman’s collapse, and continuing strains on major financial institutions, saw a significant downturn in demand around the world. As a result, the major advanced economies contracted sharply in the December quarter, as did a number of emerging market economies. The Chinese economy, though still growing, has slowed markedly. Global inflation, having reached high rates during the middle of 2008, is now declining. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Dec 02 08 03:00 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to reduce the cash rate by a further 100 basis points, to 4.25 per cent, effective 3 December 2008. Recent actions by governments and central banks to stabilise their respective financial systems have begun to take effect. Nonetheless, financial market sentiment remains fragile, as evidence accumulates of weak economic conditions in the major countries and a significant slowing in many emerging countries. Commodity prices have fallen further. This, combined with the likelihood of below-trend growth in the global economy, suggests that global inflation will moderate significantly in 2009. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Nov 18 08 04:34 GMT |
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The Board's review of international economic conditions commenced with the United States, where the latest data confirmed deteriorating economic conditions. US GDP had recorded a small fall in the September quarter, with the national accounts indicating weak consumption, a continuing drag on growth from housing activity and flat business investment. Only government spending and exports had supported overall expenditure. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Nov 10 08 03:58 GMT |
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World financial markets have come under severe stress in the period since the last Statement. Strains in credit markets escalated in early September, and the period since then has been marked by further large declines in equity prices and exceptional volatility across a range of markets. In response to these developments, a number of governments have announced measures to strengthen their financial systems, which should help to stabilise conditions over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Nov 04 08 02:53 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to reduce the cash rate by 75 basis points to 5.25 per cent, effective 5 November 2008. World financial markets have remained turbulent over the past month. Global equity prices have been volatile and fell further in net terms, and there have been significant exchange rate movements, including a sharp depreciation of the Australian dollar. A number of governments have announced measures to strengthen their financial systems, which should help to stabilise conditions over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Oct 21 08 07:09 GMT |
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In Les Carlyon's Gallipoli, a conversation is recounted in which a Turkish soldier is said to have asked some New Zealand prisoners why it was that they had come so far, voluntarily, to fight a war in Europe. They apparently replied that they had expected it to be rather like playing a game of rugby. It is not recorded how Australians answered the same question (perhaps they could not decide which code of football was most apt). But they certainly also went in a spirit of optimism. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Oct 21 08 07:04 GMT |
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The Board received a comprehensive briefing on financial market developments during the past month, which had been one of the most turbulent periods in recent decades. Financial markets had been characterised by a high degree of pessimism, with the effective failure of several large financial institutions and the nationalisation or take-over of other financial institutions in the United States and Europe. These developments had seen the demise of the US investment banking model and changes to the financial landscape in several countries. There had been a virtual complete closure of wholesale capital markets in the United States and Europe, beyond only the very short term. In Australia, such markets had performed better than their overseas peers, but they were nevertheless severely strained. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Oct 07 08 03:47 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 100 basis points to 6.0 per cent, effective 8 October 2008. Conditions in international financial markets took a significant turn for the worse in September. Large-scale financial failures in several major countries were accompanied by serious dislocation in interbank markets and heightened instability in other markets, including sharp falls in share prices. Official actions in a number of countries have been aimed at restoring stability, by adding to short-term liquidity and laying a foundation for longer-term recovery in the health of balance sheets. Nonetheless, financing is likely to be difficult around the world for some time ahead. This is also affecting Australia, albeit by less than in many other countries, given the relative strength of the local banking system. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Sep 08 08 07:03 GMT |
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The picture of moderating demand, at least on the part of households, has continued to emerge. Consumption spending grew modestly in the March quarter, then paused in the June quarter. This came after a very strong run up in the second half of 2007, when consumption had grown at an annualised pace of almost 5 per cent, well above what was sustainable. Household demand for credit has slowed, and turnover in the market for existing homes and house prices have softened, though spending on the construction of new homes and renovations has thus far continued to rise modestly. Overall, households are at present much more cautious about spending and borrowing, after a number of years in which confidence levels were very high and there had been strong rates of growth in borrowing and spending. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Sep 02 08 04:49 GMT |
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At its meeting today the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 7.0 per cent, effective 3 September. Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain demand in order to reduce inflation over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Aug 19 08 06:40 GMT |
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In evaluating the recommendation, members noted that there had clearly been a significant change in trend in household demand over the preceding few months. Tight financial conditions, high petrol prices and declining asset values were all contributing factors, though petrol prices had recently declined somewhat and tax cuts had taken effect. A range of business surveys suggested that conditions across most sectors had also moderated, though the slowing seemed milder than in the case of household activity. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Aug 11 08 05:55 GMT |
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Inflation in Australia has remained high in the recent period against a background of tight capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain demand in order to reduce inflation over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Aug 05 08 04:49 GMT |
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Weighing up the available domestic and international information, the Board judged that the cash rate should remain unchanged this month. Nonetheless, with demand slowing, the Board's view is that scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jul 15 08 05:45 GMT |
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The Board's discussion of the world economy opened with the staff forecasts for growth of Australia's trading partners. These had not changed in recent months, and continued to show that GDP of Australia's trading partners (export-weighted) would grow by around 4 per cent in both 2008 and 2009. While this was down from an average of 5 per cent in the past few years, it was in line with longer-run averages. These staff forecasts were similar to the most recent IMF forecasts, though Consensus private-sector forecasts were slightly higher. The slowing was mainly expected to result from further weakness in the industrial economies. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jul 01 08 05:42 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent. Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain demand in order to reduce inflation over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jun 17 08 07:06 GMT |
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The Board's discussion of the world economy commenced with a briefing on the outlook for Australia's trading partners. Estimated GDP growth for trading partners in the March quarter had been strong, at 1¼ per cent. Staff forecasts continued to be for some slowing over the course of the year, leading to annual growth of around 4 per cent in both 2008 and 2009. This was expected to result from weakness in the industrial economies and a moderation to a still firm pace of growth in the emerging economies. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jun 03 08 05:25 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent. Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain demand in order to reduce inflation over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
May 20 08 07:41 GMT |
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Board members were briefed on the CPI data for the March quarter 2008. The CPI rose by 1.3 per cent in the quarter and by 4.2 per cent over the year. The various measures of underlying inflation were similar to the CPI over the latest year. The general increase in inflationary pressure was the result of strong growth in domestic demand in the face of limited spare capacity and rapid growth in commodity prices over the past few years. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
May 09 08 07:29 GMT |
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Inflation in Australia picked up over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong demand. In these circumstances, a significant slowing in the growth of demand from the rapid pace of 2007 will be needed in order to return inflation to the target over time. There are signs that such moderation is now occurring. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
May 06 08 04:45 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent. Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year, with the CPI rising by a little over 4 per cent and underlying measures at a similar pace. Price rises were widespread, in an environment of limited capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Apr 15 08 08:47 GMT |
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The Board's discussion of the world economy commenced with a briefing on the global growth outlook. The latest IMF forecasts were for growth in world GDP to be around 3¾ per cent in both 2008 and 2009, following expansion of around 5 per cent in the previous two years. While these IMF forecasts had been marked down by about ½ percentage point for each year from those published in January, they were in line with staff forecasts for Australia's major trading partners made earlier in the year. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Apr 01 08 04:47 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent. For some time now, the Board has been seeking to slow the growth of aggregate demand, in order to reduce inflation. To that end, the Board had increased the cash rate at each of its two previous meetings, as well as on two occasions last year. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Mar 18 08 07:34 GMT |
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The Board's discussion on the world economy commenced with a briefing on the outlook for growth in the economies of Australia's trading partners. The staff forecasts, which had been published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy, were for a noticeable slowing in trading partner growth in 2008, reflecting a sharp fall in growth among the G7 economies and ongoing strength in the Asian economies. Trading partner growth was then forecast to rise slightly in 2009. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Mar 05 08 08:17 GMT |
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Since I spoke here last year, the economic situation in Australia and abroad has changed quite markedly. The outlook and risks for the global economy have clearly shifted, and so have the prospects for domestic inflation. I want to use my time today to review how these things have evolved over the past year. The main themes are that the past year was a period of higher-than-expected growth, both here and abroad; that domestic inflation picked up; but there are some forces at work that can be expected to put downward pressure on inflation over time. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Mar 04 08 02:39 GMT |
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent, effective 5 March 2008. This adjustment was made in order to contain and reduce inflation over the medium term. Inflation was high in 2007, with an annual CPI increase of 3 per cent in the December quarter and underlying measures around 3½ per cent. Domestic demand grew at rates appreciably higher than the growth of the economy's productive capacity over the year. Labour market conditions remained strong into early 2008 and reports of high capacity usage and shortages of suitable labour persist. Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, and will probably rise further in yearended terms, before moderating next year in response to slower growth in demand. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 19 08 05:53 GMT |
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Board members were briefed on the CPI data for the December quarter 2007. The quarterly outcome was relatively high at 0.9 per cent, which had lifted the year-ended inflation rate to 3 per cent. There had now been three consecutive high quarterly readings, with the year-ended rate likely to rise further as the price falls associated with falling fruit prices around the beginning of 2007 dropped out of the calculation. In underlying terms, taking an average of the trimmed mean and weighted median measures, year-ended inflation had increased to 3.6 per cent after a period where it had been stable at around 3 per cent. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 19 08 05:50 GMT |
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Since the last time I spoke at this event, the RBA has taken a number of steps to increase the amount of information it makes available to the public, both about its policy processes, and its thinking about the economy. We now issue a monthly statement after each Board meeting, setting out the reasons for the latest decision, whether or not the interest rate is being changed. Minutes of the Board meetings are now also published, and they give additional detail on the matters that were considered and the reasoning behind the decision. And those of you who follow these things closely would know that we've increased the level of detail in the economic forecasts set out in our quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 11 08 00:31 GMT |
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The Australian economy has remained robust in the recent period, notwithstanding a more difficult international environment. Domestic demand and activity have remained strong and capacity usage is high after a long period of economic expansion. These conditions have been associated with a rise in inflation. Hence Australian monetary policy has had to take into account sharply contrasting domestic and international developments. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Feb 05 08 03:24 GMT |
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Recent information points to significant inflation pressures. CPI inflation on a yearended basis picked up to 3 per cent in the December quarter, with underlying measures around 3½ per cent. This was a little higher than was expected a few months ago. Indicators of demand remained strong through the second half of 2007, and reports of high capacity usage and shortages of suitable labour persist. In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high and will probably rise further in yearended terms, though the Bank expects it to moderate somewhat next year. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Jan 18 08 14:49 GMT |
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Based on what we can see at present, my judgement is that the direct financial effects of the global turmoil on Australia are likely to be confined mainly to the impact on borrowing costs of the liquidity squeeze of recent months, which has pushed up the cost of wholesale finance a bit in addition to the effects of monetary policy changes. Taking into account the strength of demand, this increase in borrowing costs does not seem likely to pose a particular problem for the economy as a whole. There is no evidence, moreover, of a 'credit crunch' in the domestic financial sector. On the contrary, thus far the core elements of the domestic system have stepped into the potential gap left by the capital markets. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Dec 18 07 10:19 GMT |
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The meeting began with a discussion about the world economic environment. National accounts data for the September quarter for most of Australia’s major trading partners indicated that, weighted by their shares in Australia’s merchandise exports, year-ended growth had continued to be about 5 per cent. While there had been little sign of a slowdown in the data thus far, forecasts from the IMF in October indicated that trading partner growth on this basis was likely to slow in 2008 to around 4½& per cent. The latest adverse developments in credit markets suggested that these forecasts would be revised down further. |
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RBA |
Written by Reserve Bank of Australia |
Dec 05 07 10:20 GMT |
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At its meeting yesterday, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 6.75 per cent. As part of wider changes to communication practices which the Board has adopted (see separate announcement on communication), it was further decided that a statement explaining the decision would be released. |
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