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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Nov 04 09 08:45 GMT |
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The Bank of England will continue to keep its policy rate at 0.5%. However, the focus of the meeting is whether the central bank will extend the asset purchase program which was increased by 25B pound to 175B pound in August. The surprising contraction in 3Q09 GDP increased the likelihood of such an extension. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Nov 04 09 08:44 GMT |
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As there's only one month to go for the release of a new set of staff projection in December, we will probably not get much new information from the ECB at November's meeting. Policymakers should leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. In the accompanying statement, it will be reiterated that growth and inflation risks are ‘broadly balanced' and interest rates are ‘appropriate'. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Nov 03 09 10:14 GMT |
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The Fed is expected to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%. What the market interested in the most is whether the Fed will change the statement, '... economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period', that appeared in September. Concerning economic forecasts, the Fed should have upgraded its outlook on growth given strong economic data released since last meeting. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Nov 03 09 04:27 GMT |
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Inline with expectations, the RBA raised cash rate by +25 bps to 3.5% in November. While acknowledging solid economic growth, the central bank highlighted this month that appreciation in AUD would dampen price pressure and the trade sector. Other comments were similar to what appeared in October's statement. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Nov 02 09 06:33 GMT |
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After taking the lead in rate hike in developed economies, the RBA will raise its policy rate, by 25 bps again, to 3.5% in November. Although current interest rate remains well-below RBA's normal level of around 5%, we believe the central bank will be patient and only tighten gradually. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 29 09 19:25 GMT |
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Personal income should have eased to +0.1% in September as the weak employment report suggested softening in employee compensation during the month. Personal spending is expected to have dropped -0.5% after rising +1.3% in September. As the cash for clunker program ended, unit auto sales dropped -35%. The decline triggered a -0.7% drop in real consumption. However, retail sales excluding auto sales and gasoline were actually robust over the past 2 months. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 29 09 04:44 GMT |
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The RBNZ decided to keep its OCR unchanged at 2.5% and stated it would maintain the current low level of interest rate until 2H10. While NZD plunges after the news as it was less hawkish than market expectation, it was inline with our forecast as the statement has turned more neutral. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 28 09 20:47 GMT |
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Real GDP probably rose +3% qoq in 3Q09. This would be the first increase since 2Q08 and the largest expansion in 2 years. We believe recovery was strong in consumer spending and residential investment. Consumer spending probably surged +3% as driven by rebound in durable goods while residential investments should have risen more than +20% due to low mortgage rates and homebuyer tax incentives. However, rising vacancy rates suggested decline in non-residential business fixed investments. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 28 09 09:58 GMT |
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Nationwide CPI should have dropped another -2.2% yoy while core CPI falling -2.4% yoy in September, indicating the pace of deflation remained the fastest since the gauge began in 1970. As a leading indicator, Tokyo CPI (headline and core) for October is expected to have declined -2.1%. After October, the pace of contraction in nationwide CPI should slow down due to less negative base effect. However, core CPI should sink deeper into deflation amid the huge output gap. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 27 09 19:35 GMT |
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While the RBNZ will likely keep its OCR unchanged at 2.5% in October, the tone of the accompanying statement should turn more neutral than before. In previous meetings, the central bank stated 'we continue to expect to keep the OCR at or below the current level through until the latter part of 2010'. We expect the part 'or below' will be eliminated this time. The above forecast was based on recent strong economic data in New Zealand as well as RBNZ governor Alan Bollard's comments about rate hike and exchange rates. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 27 09 10:54 GMT |
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(Oct 28, Wed) Australia CPI - 3Q09: Headline CPI probably rose +0.7% qoq in 3Q09 after a +0.5% gain in the prior quarter. On annual basis, the reading is expected to have risen to +1%, well-below RBA’s target of 2-3%. Inflation in food, clothing and footwear declined as driven by strong Australian dollar while rally in fuel and utility prices should have elevated due to seasonality. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 22 09 12:15 GMT |
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Recent economic data indicate that recession is ending with business surveys, retail sales and housing market showing signs of improvements. It's likely that the economy expanded slightly in the third quarter. However, the growth should only be modest as gains in the services sector should have been offset by disappointing industrial productions. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 21 09 10:53 GMT |
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The pound rallied to 1-month high against USD before the minutes as an article written by BOE Governor Mervyn King stated that the policy rate will increase 'at some point' and 'it would be wise to take this into account'. This signaled King's change of view on the economic condition and his stance on monetary policy. Sterling extends the strength after minutes showed there was no vote split in the October meeting on keeping the GBP 175b asset purchase program unchanged. In addition, the overall tone of the minutes was less dovish than the prior ones. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 20 09 14:50 GMT |
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The Bank of Canada decided to leave its key interest rate unchanged at +0.25% in October. While acknowledging that a recovery in economic activity is underway in Canada, the central bank anticipated that output gap will be closed in the 3Q11, a quarter later than it had projected in July. Moreover, inflation is also expected to return to the 2% target in 3Q11, a quarter later than in July's projection. The accompanying statement also warned about the strength in Canadian dollar, using stronger wordings than in previous meetings. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 20 09 12:08 GMT |
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There has been only one direction-to the south- for USD's movement in recent months. Since our last update on FX forecasts, the dollar index has declined another -1.3% to the lowest level in 14 months. Although technical indicators suggest a meaningful rebound, market sentiment, central bank policy and macroeconomic outlook seem to point to further weakness in the greenback in the near-term. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 19 09 11:00 GMT |
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The Bank of Canada will announce to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% at its October meeting. Since the last rate decision, economic development was largely inline with the central bank’s base-assumptions in July. As recent improvement in both domestic and global conditions are gradual and not yet proved to be sustainable, the BOC will likely reiterate its stance that ‘conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target’. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 19 09 10:09 GMT |
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Growth in headline PPI probably eased to +0.1% mom in September as driven by declines in both food and energy products. Gasoline PPI might have dropped -5% during the month after rising +21% in August. On annual basis, the reading should have contracted -4.4% following a -4.3% drop in the prior month. Excluding food and energy, the core index is expected to have eased to +0.1% in September from +0.2% a month ago with modest gains coming from consumer and capital equipment prices. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 16 09 05:40 GMT |
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US Industrial Production - September: Growth in industrial production is expected to have slowed further to +0.1% mom in September after increasing +0.8% in August and +1% in July. Manufacturing production probably rose +0.3% in September as unit auto production data continued to increase during the month. Outside of the auto sector, expansion in production activities was not as robust as in previous months. The decline of ISM index to 55.7 from 61.9 provided evidence. Moreover, the 'number of hours worked' shown in employment report showed that hours worked in manufacturing outside of auto sector fell in both August and September and slight increase in July. This suggested sluggish improvement in other manufacturing activities. |
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Oct 15 09 03:44 GMT |
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The FOMC minutes for September's meeting suggested that the Fed, while acknowledged that the economic outlook has improved, remained cautious about the downside risk. Moreover, policymakers stressed that uncertainty about growth and subdued inflationary pressure made the central bank decided to keep interest rate low at an extended period of time. |
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