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Wekly Forex Fundamental Reports Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict price action and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy and societal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework. For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is best to get a handle on the most influential contributors to this diverse mix than it is to formulate a comprehensive list of all "The Forex Fundamentals."
Fundamental analysis can be used to forecast economic conditions very effectively. But it may not necessarily forecast exact market prices. Forecasting models in forex fundamental analysis are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Two people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. Therefore is it important that before casting yourself into a particular mold regarding any aspect of market analysis, you study the fundamentals and see how they best fit your trading style and expectations.
This section provides weekly fundamental analysis reports written by selected external contributors around the globe, updated round the clock.
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Weekly Fundamental Analysis Reports RSS |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
May 09 08 22:13 GMT |
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Oil prices gained nearly 8% this week after a US investment house issued a report suggesting a 'super-spike' might be unfolding that could eventually see prices rise into the $150-200/bbl range. Rebel attacks in Nigeria, which temporarily disrupted crude exports, conveniently served as a nice background accompaniment to the steady grind higher in oil. Interestingly, the surge in oil defied a larger than expected weekly US inventory increase (5.6 mio bbls vs. forecast of 1.6 mio bbls), suggesting that market speculation rather than any demand constraint is actually behind the move. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
May 09 08 22:12 GMT |
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After months of continued weakness, the dollar held on to last week's gains, ending the week at $1.548 against the euro. An improving trade balance, dollar “decoupling” from oil and other commodities, and selling of Euros by Eastern European names were all cited as reasons for dollar strength. There was also speculation mid-week that the new Russian government of Dmitri Medvedev would permit a stronger ruble, with the Russian Central Bank possibly revaluing the currency after the new government took control. However, a deputy Russian central banker squashed this speculation after saying that revaluation chatter had originated among "irrational investors." |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
May 09 08 20:40 GMT |
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After a flood of U.S. economic data releases last week, our attention was turned mostly towards Canadian data this week, with Friday's labour force survey for the month of April serving as centerpiece. Quickly recovering from mourning the elimination of the last Canadian team from the NHL playoffs, the nation's focus also turned to its fate in the IIHF World Hockey Championship – so far, so good. Canada has grown accustomed to prevailing in these competitions and touting its competitive advantage, but its blasé attitude should not be carried over into the economic realm to quickly in comparing itself to its southern neighbor. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 09 08 16:19 GMT |
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The past is week brought morefurther news onf how the "credit crunch" between banks among banks is spreading to the real economy. The ECB's lending survey showed further tightening of credit standards across the board:. Eenterprises, consumers and home buyers are all facing t tighter credit availability. Meanwhile, demand for credit is weakening acrossfor all sectors, and hence paintings a picture of weaker investment activity and consumer demand. The data also point to the housing downturn continuing in Euroland. Credit standards are likely to have been tightened most in the most vulnerable countries, such as Spain and Ireland, but there are no country details in the report. Further tightening in Euroland is no big surprise, as it mirrors similar developments in the US and UK. Nonetheless, it contributes to a picture of tightening credit availability at a global level. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
May 09 08 15:58 GMT |
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Import prices rose by 2.8% mom in March, driven mainly by higher petroleum prices. However, import prices ex petroleum also went up markedly by 1.1% mom, due to a surge in food and natural gas prices. Crude oil prices increased further, albeit less sharply, in the first third of April, which is the statistically relevant period. But import prices could still have risen by 1.0% mom and 14.3% yoy in April. Consumer prices (CPI) increased by a mere 0.3% mom in March, but we forecast that they will have gone up by 0.5% mom (4.1% yoy) in April, as average gasoline prices jumped by almost 7% mom. This alone could account for 0.3 percentage points of the increase. Core CPI could have risen by 0.2% mom again, leaving the annual rate at 2.4%. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Jyske Bank |
May 09 08 15:50 GMT |
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German GDP will probably have increased by at least 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2008. Output in the producing sector and retail sales alone indicate a growth rate of even more than 1%. On 15 May, Destatis (the German Federal Statistical Office) is publishing a "flash release" on German GDP; a detailed breakdown of the components will follow on 27 May. Domestic demand is likely to have had a favourable impact on overall GDP, driven mainly by investment in buildings. However, net exports will probably have dampened GDP growth. French GDP is likely to have grown by at least 0.4 % in Q1, just like French industrial production and consumer spending. As a result, Q1 EMU GDP is expected to have increased by at least 0.5% quarter-on-quarter. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Jyske Bank |
May 09 08 15:28 GMT |
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On Friday, the American government began sending USD 110bn to the consumers in the form of temporary tax cuts. This will lift consumer spending and thus GDP in the coming months. If the tax cuts are effective, it increases the likelihood that the US can avoid recession or that the recession will be short-lived. This is probably one of the reasons why the Fed has signalled a pause in interest-rate cuts. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
May 09 08 14:51 GMT |
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Over the last fortnight, the US dollar has continued to firm slightly. EUR-USD fell to below 1.53 for a time, while USD-JPY traded at around 105 for a few days. From about the middle of the week, when US equity markets began to crumble, the yen started to recover, and the euro followed suit after the ECB Council meeting. At the end of the week, EUR-USD was trading at around 1.5450, and USD-JPY at 103. The dollar has thus come quite a long way since its all-time lows. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
May 09 08 14:38 GMT |
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Despite corrective US dollar strength, which saw the Euro drop to $1.5285 and Cable to $1.9459, Nymex Crude Oil set a new record high of $126.20 per barrel. Not surprisingly Gasoline and Heating Oil also set new records at $3.1860 and $3.6125 per gallon. This allowed the CRB Index to reach a new record high at 424.59 despite most other commodities doing nothing of the sort. With the exception of CBT Corn which set a new record at $6.27 per bushel (and CME Lean Hogs towards the highest price of the last decade at 79.375 cents per pound) all others were sidelined. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
May 08 08 02:39 GMT |
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Confidence in the beleaguered credit markets seems to be slowly improving. With the Fed adding to its cumulative 325bps of easing last week and expanding its ad hoc efforts to revive liquidity, lenders are less fearful of a default and banks aren't as apprehensive with taking on so-called risky assets that may be difficult to price and/or sell should there be another turn for the worse. Just this past week, the monetary policy authority has taken significant steps to squash the credit crisis once and for all. Adding to the already significant improvements to its lending facilities, the Fed announced it would increase its bi-weekly TAF auctions from $50 to $75 billion and further that it would now accept AAA-rated ABS as collateral. A potential long-term fix, Bernanke asked congress this morning to provide interest on commercial reserves. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
May 06 08 19:18 GMT |
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The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates steady this week at 4.00%, but the big question for the markets is: will he remain hawkish or focus more on mounting downside risks to growth? Estimates for Euro-zone CPI during April did ease to 3.3 percent from 3.6 percent, but this is still well above the ECB's 2 percent target, and as a result there's little doubt ‘price stability' will be the foremost concern for Trichet. However, if he suggests that price pressures will moderate in the near-term - as they have recently started to do - or that feeble financial market conditions and the US economic slowdown are a major threat the Euro-zone growth, the euro could actually sell-off across the majors on Thursday. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by MG Financial Group |
May 05 08 16:10 GMT |
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While the United States is in the middle of the storm, the long wave of the economic contraction is just getting into the European mainland. The European Commission is forecasting that Euro zone growth will be 1.7% this year and 1.5% in 2009, while inflation could be 3.1% and 2.2%. However, E.C. predictions could be conservative and the European economy might fell below expectations by year end. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) should postpone any intervention and leave rates unchanged at 4.00% during May 8th meeting. In reality, inflation is showing some timid signs of slowdown from recent highs and growth numbers are softening from last year. In April, the German state Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.3% month on month and 2.6% year on year. In the Eurozone (fifteen nations), the CPI is 3.3% below March 3.6%. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
May 05 08 08:49 GMT |
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The US trade deficit widened unexpectedly by more than $3bn to -$62.3bn in February, although exports expanded sharply by 2.0% mom. But imports went up even more, by 3.1% mom, particularly due to a surge in natural gas and automobile imports. The latter was a surprise, given the slowdown in consumption. As domestic demand has declined, we expect imports to have risen less markedly than exports in real terms in March. But due to the increase in import prices by 2.8% mom, nominal imports are likely to have risen noticeably again. We thus expect the trade deficit to have remained on the high February level. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
May 05 08 08:45 GMT |
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The ECB Council is meeting on Thursday in Athens to discuss monetary policy. Even after receding to 3.3% from 3.6%, inflation rates remain elevated. We therefore expect the ECB Council to retain its slightly hawkish undertone. However, while growth was quite robust in Q1, the economic outlook has deteriorated, according to survey data. Only recently, the EU Commission cut its 2009 GDP forecast from 2.1 to 1.5%. Moreover, financial markets remain under considerable strain. Overall, we expect the ECB council to keep rates on hold once again in May. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
May 05 08 08:39 GMT |
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Following a week of major US economic indicators, the only significant release pertinent for the US Dollar specifically this week will be ISM Services, which could be surprisingly strong. Meanwhile, employment data out of Australia and Canada could shake up the commodity dollars, while rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank may not be as market-moving as usual. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by FX Solutions |
May 05 08 06:02 GMT |
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A Federal Reserve hint, a Non Farm Payrolls less damming than feared, a contracting but not deteriorating manufacturing ISM and a barely expansionary GDP were the US ingredients for a major dollar rally this week. In isolation there is little in these numbers to cheer, but in context each allayed a particular worry for the American economy. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
May 05 08 02:04 GMT |
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The greenback traded with a positive tone all week long and Friday's much smaller than expected contraction in NFP's which printed at -20K versus forecasts of -75k only served to reinforce the notion that US economy may be simply in a slowdown rather than a full blown recession. As our colleague Kathy Lien noted, 'Throughout this past week, there have been a number of upside surprises in the US releases including today's non-farm payrolls report, first quarter GDP, Chicago PMI, and manufacturing ISM. Although we do not believe that the worst is behind us, this stability does indicate that the pace of the slowdown in the US economy has moderated.' |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
May 02 08 21:49 GMT |
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The financial media is abuzz with the Great Dollar Recovery story, but the real news traders need to focus on is the fall in the EUR. The USD is relatively stable at weak levels against most other major currencies-AUD/USD is only 150 pips below recent highs; USD/CAD remains mired in a 1.00-1.03 range; GBP/USD is stuck in a 1.96-2.00 range; and USD/JPY is slightly above the 103-105 range that has dominated for the last several weeks. The real mover over the last two weeks has been the EUR, and its southern cousin Swissy, but it gives the appearance that the USD is strengthening as the USD index has moved higher, since it's nearly 80% composed of European currencies. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
May 02 08 21:46 GMT |
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Markets were showing strength this week on the Fed rate cut, mixed economic data and heavy earnings reports. The jury remained out on recession, as speakers such as the BoE's Blanchflower claimed with certainty that the US indeed was in a recession, whilst job numbers came in slightly better than expected and GDP numers showed slightly positive annualized growth. However it became increasingly clear with the comments from the White House that the slowdown is here and the economy is 'not as robust as it should be', but not yet in a recession. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
May 02 08 21:43 GMT |
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The U.S. economy maintained its 0.6% pace from the last quarter of 2007 through the first quarter of 2008. On face value, one may say the U.S. economy got no worse. The details, however, were less than convincing. The pace of decline in residential construction accelerated further, and was joined by new contractions in both nonresidential construction and business investment. Were it not for an accumulation of inventories – businesses restocking shelves and producers resupplying inputs – the U.S. economy would have contracted by 0.2%. Increasing business capacity would be completely natural if there was an expectation the economy were about to turn a corner. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
May 02 08 19:02 GMT |
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In the UK, the outcome of the April services PMI, published Tuesday, will play a part in the Bank of England's decision whether to immediately cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.75% on Thursday, or to delay the move until June, with the possibility that there will be no further cuts at all. Our view is that unless there is a significant fall in the index, to a level below 50, which suggests contraction, the majority of MPC members will vote to hold rates, with David Blanchflower and possibly one other member dissenting. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
May 02 08 18:55 GMT |
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We received a torrent of economic reports this past week and most of them show the economy holding up better than has been widely perceived. Real GDP grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate during the first quarter, which was exactly where we had it in our monthly forecast. Nonfarm employment declined much less than expected and the unemployment rate fell to 5 percent, the level widely considered to be “full employment.” |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Jyske Bank |
May 02 08 17:21 GMT |
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We expect the ECB to maintain its hawkish stance, which more or less precludes interest-rate cuts. Even so, we expect that the ECB may ease its stance at the subsequent meetings. This is because IFO began, in April for the first time in a long time, to point in the same direction as the other business tendency surveys, viz. towards slower growth. If IFO continues to show signs of weakness in coming months, while the other business tendency surveys ease up, we expect a softening of the rhetoric. However, it requires that the skyrocketing oil price turns round. If the oil price continues to rise, it may be a longish time before the ECB can turn less hawkish. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Westpac Institutional Bank |
May 02 08 16:48 GMT |
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The RBA Board meets next week and the result of the meeting and the associated Statement by the Governor will be available at 2:30pm on May 6. We do not expect to see any change in policy from the RBA at this meeting. Given that the latest underlying inflation measure was 1.2% and the highest quarterly read since the fourth quarter in 1990 that judgement may seem surprising. Certainly in the twelve 0.25% tightenings we have had since the cycle began in May 2002 nine have followed a quarterly CPI release and three have been moves that followed directly after the post CPI move. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
May 02 08 16:22 GMT |
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The FX market is well into a corrective phase and moves are likely to remain sharp and sudden. This will affect the price of anything denominated in US dollars and the rationale behind holding certain investments has changed. Also the political backlash against bio-fuels policy is starting to hit home. We continue to allow for plenty of two-way business and room for disappointment among novice investors. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 30 08 16:23 GMT |
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The NOK's recent performance has failed to meet expectations - ours included. Despite a surge in oil prices and a recent upswing in the domestic stock market the NOK has remained under pressure. The correlation with other high-yielding currencies has been high and a substantial risk premium has been attached to NOK. Looking forward, a return in risk appetite will most likely support NOK, which is also backed by sound domestic economic fundamentals. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by MG Financial Group |
Apr 28 08 14:37 GMT |
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On April 30th, the Federal Reserve should cut rates again by 25%-50% basis points. Other rate cuts are possible before year end, but the final speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be attentively scrutinized. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause in the coming months might support the U.S. dollar over the short/medium term. In effect, signs of a possible dollar¡¦s rebound are becoming evident throughout various charts, although technical levels must be overcome. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Apr 28 08 14:17 GMT |
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The dollar made some spectacular gains last week primarily on relief/hope that the worst of the subprime disaster is over. Maybe. But recession is looking us in the eye and while the dollar doesn't do all that bad during these periods, it is premature to call the end of its long-term downtrend. This week could prove crucial for new-found strength of the dollar and weakness is likely early in the week. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by RBC Financial Group |
Apr 28 08 13:34 GMT |
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We estimate that GDP was up 0.1% in February following a 0.6% jump in January. The increase in February was helped by increased employment and a pickup in manufacturing production though constrained by a drop in real wholesale sales and real retail sales activity. February was a month where special factors played a role in determining the path of GDP. Retail and wholesale sales were weighed down by severe winter storms and the introduction of the Family Day holiday in Ontario while manufacturing production was boosted by the continued unwind of December's auto weakness owing to longer-than normal plant shutdowns. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 28 08 13:31 GMT |
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Normally, the release of US Non-farm Payrolls takes center stage in the forex markets, as the figure tends to spark significant volatility and can shape interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. However, Wednesday's FOMC rate decision may steal the limelight, as futures are currently pricing in an 82% chance of a 25bp cut to 2.00% and an 18% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Apr 28 08 10:36 GMT |
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Data in the week ahead are likely to show that the US economy weakened further in Q1 but not into negative territory. However, this will not stop the Fed from cutting interest rates on Wednesday, to 2%, a cumulative reduction of 3.25% since the peak last year. A weakening labour market, worries about consumer spending and the fallout from the credit crisis have forced the Fed's hands, despite concern over inflation. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
Apr 28 08 10:28 GMT |
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The FOMC is likely to cut rates again after its meeting on Wednesday, as an insurance against a deeper recession. Financial markets are now putting the odds of a 25 basis point cut only at 80%. The central bank could indeed slow the pace of its rate cuts; since last September, it has already lowered the fed funds rate by 300 basis points, and the effects of these cuts are yet to be seen. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
Apr 28 08 10:19 GMT |
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The Eurostat flash estimate is likely to show that euro area inflation has decelerated slightly to 3.5% yoy in April. This would correspond with a monthly increase of 0.6% in unadjusted terms. As in Germany, the monthly inflation will probably have been mainly due to record high crude oil prices and higher prices for seasonal food. On the other hand, prices for accommodation services and package tours could have had a dampening effect because of the early Easter holidays. But there is a risk that both EMU inflation rates could be slightly higher because of further increases in food prices. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by FX Solutions |
Apr 28 08 10:07 GMT |
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Before we give the resurgence of the dollar too much credit let's perform a reality check. As of Friday's close at 1.5605 the euro had fallen slightly more than four big figures, or 2.5% against the dollar in just four days. The record high for the euro of 1.6020 came this past Tuesday. But since February the euro has risen 9.0% against the US currency. For the past five weeks the euro has been trading between 1.5500 and 1.5900 with one dip below and two attempts at the top; 1.5605 is just 100 points from the middle of that range. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 28 08 02:44 GMT |
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The US dollar staged a massive comeback last week as US economic data indicated that, while conditions remain dismal, they aren't quite as bad as expected. First, the Richmond Fed index 'only' fell to 0 from +6, versus expectations of a drop to -1, while existing home sales slipped 2.0 percent. Next, the headline reading of the Commerce Department's durable goods orders report contracted for the third consecutive month during March, due largely to declines in demand for transportation and defense goods. However, the markets took their cue from the durable goods orders excluding transportation reading, as the index surged 1.5 percent and helped to keep the US dollar rally alive. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Forex.com |
Apr 26 08 04:36 GMT |
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Many in the media and the market are pointing to the USD's gains this week as a turnaround for the beleaguered greenback. But I think a better way to view this past week's developments is in the context of sudden shifts in ECB rate expectations. Recall that over the last several weeks markets had been pricing out the prospect of anticipated ECB easing, both in light of repeated ECB warnings and resilient Eurozone data, which led to a steady rise in the EUR. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Wachovia Corporation |
Apr 26 08 04:33 GMT |
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Next week will bring our first look at first quarter real GDP growth. Our latest read has the economy expanding at a 0.7 percent annual rate. While on the surface, such growth flies in the face of many of the recent business headlines, it is only modestly ahead of the consensus estimate of 0.4 percent. Two great unknowns in the GDP data are what happened to business inventories and net exports. We are assuming a modest $7 billion decline in inventories and look for a slight improvement in the nation's trade deficit to add roughly 0.4 percent to first quarter growth. Consumer spending is expected to eke out a slight gain, while business fixed investment is expected to decline. Home construction will likely post its biggest quarterly drop in more than 30 years. So, while we are expecting growth, the economic environment is challenging. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Trade The News |
Apr 26 08 04:06 GMT |
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After hitting another record low against the euro on Wednesday, moving above 1.60, the dollar regained some ground thanks to a smattering of economic reports that showed a glimmer of improvement in the US economy and some weakness in the EU. In the US, weekly jobless claims came in at a surprisingly low 342K, which will bring down the closely followed three-month average after jobless claims spiked to an unsettling level above 400K just three weeks ago. Also in the positive column for the US economy this week, March durable goods orders (ex-transports) arrived well above expectations at 1.5%, versus the expected 0.5%. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 25 08 17:10 GMT |
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We have seen a large rise in bond yields over the last month in both Euroland and the US. The market has taken out all expectations of rate cuts from the ECB after having priced in more than 100bp of cuts in the beginning of the year. The market also expects the Fed to be done after a 25bp cut next week. So what's happening? Has the economic outlook suddenly improved a lot and are we heading for a bear market in bonds? Or is this merely a correction in a bull market? We think the latter is the case, and believe we will see lower yields again before long. The factors behind this view are the following: |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by TD Bank Financial Group |
Apr 25 08 16:55 GMT |
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The big news out this week was of course the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report. On Tuesday, as expected, the Bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the second straight time, bringing the overnight rate to 3.0%. The Bank's accompanying statement maintained its bias towards further easing, saying, "some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the inflation target over the medium-term." |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Jyske Bank |
Apr 25 08 16:46 GMT |
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This week's most important event will be the FOMC meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday in fierce competition with the job report, ISM and GDP from the US. There is not much excitement about the interest-rate cut of 0.25 percentage point in itself (market prices discount a quarter point cut with 82% probability). The press release from the Fed, on the other hand, will be eagerly awaited. The interest in the press release has grown since the financial markets have started to doubt whether interest rates will be lowered further in addition to the quarter point cut at the meeting on Wednesday. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by BHF-BANK |
Apr 25 08 16:30 GMT |
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After EUR-USD had passed 1.59 for the first time in mid-March, it was just a matter of time before it hit 1.60. In the last fortnight, the European currency has been inching nearer and nearer to that level, and on Tuesday, it finally managed to breach 1.60 for the first time, briefly hitting a high of 1.6020. But the ice gets thin beyond 1.60: subsequently, the single currency plummeted to below 1.56. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
Apr 25 08 16:27 GMT |
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We feel the FX market will move into correction and consolidation mode, and commodity prices will mimic these moves. Plenty of two-way business and room for disappointment among novice investors. Yield curves should flatten as cash remains hard to come by; the direction for rates is especially opaque. Equity indices ought to top imminently. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Westpac Institutional Bank |
Apr 25 08 13:43 GMT |
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The March quarter CPI printed slightly higher than we expected. Following the release of the March quarter PPI we raised our forecast for underlying inflation to 1.1% in March from the 1% we nominated in last week's preview. We estimate that the average of the trimmed mean and the weighted median was 1.2% for March. To a second decimal place we estimate the trimmed mean at 1.16% and the weighted median at around 1.25% meaning that both measures were 'soft'. That is the 'official' estimates of both measures of 1.2% and 1.3% were rounded up, rather than down. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 24 08 02:11 GMT |
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Conditions in the credit market showed a modest improvement this past week despite the ongoing tally of damage exacted by subprime losses at banks and insurers. Over the past few days, there were few headlines that should have evoked confidence from lenders. In fact, from the corporate world, the first quarter earnings season brought another round of major write downs from the largest banks. JP Morgan, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and Citi all reported sharp declines in earnings and credit-related losses. Such an improvement under fundamental duress suggests lenders and investors may be growing accustomed to the steady write offs and that these losses are being viewed as past events. If this is the case, growing confidence may finally begin thawing the lending freeze and eventually stabilize the financial markets. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 23 08 02:01 GMT |
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Although the week carries typically significant event risks with Australian Consumer Price Index and an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, their implications are substantially limited as overall trajectory in monetary policy in both antipodean countries is well known. We reckon this opens the door for continued consolidation below the recent top in price action. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by DailyFX |
Apr 22 08 20:47 GMT |
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If the credit markets remain tight and economic growth in the US has slowed dramatically, why wouldn't the Federal Reserve continue slashing rates at their next meeting on April 30? One word: inflation. Inflation concerns have come to the forefront as FOMC voting members Charles Plosser and Richard Fisher have dissented in the past in favor of "less aggressive" policy, and recent commentary suggests they will do the same going forward. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by MG Financial Group |
Apr 21 08 17:19 GMT |
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While the Federal Reserve is preparing another rate cut at the end of April, the European Central Bank (ECB) has enough room to postpone any intervention further into the future. In effect, ECB officials still promote a strong Euro, as a medicine against a rampant inflation. Nonetheless, the technical picture might delineate a different short/medium term scenario for Euro/Usd, if key technical levels are not overcome. |
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Weekly Forex Fundamentals |
Written by Global Forex Trading |
Apr 21 08 14:44 GMT |
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The dollar is trying to regain its footing amid (new | |
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