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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Jun 29 09 12:02 GMT |
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The U.K. currency breaks previous resistance and continues its uptrend. Technically the market shows us a strong demand with some confirmation of indicators like RSI, which is above 50% level, we can see divergences on MACD and Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jun 29 09 08:11 GMT |
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Speculative investors added to their long EUR positions, which reached the highest level this year and the highest level since last July (when EUR/USD peaked at 1.60). EUR longs currently stand at 15 percent of open interest. However, it should be noted that the IMM data were collected the day before the 24 June FOMC meeting, which turned out to be a dollar-positive event. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Jun 22 09 11:37 GMT |
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Technical analysis shows the euro may continue its downtrend as MACD giving us a selling signal by crossing the signal line to MACD line downwards RSI breaks 70% line and is in a downtrend. We have strong supply in the market as stochastic shows us the market movement and Bollinger gives us a bearish signal by closing the candle below the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Jun 22 09 07:53 GMT |
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Short speculative USD positions were trimmed slightly in a week that saw EUR/USD fall back below 1.40 to test the lower end of the recent month’s trading range. Short USD positions against EUR still remain quite low at just 12% of open interest. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jun 21 09 19:13 GMT |
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Although recovery higher off a hammer formation the past week remains suggestive of a follow through higher, EUR still remains vulnerable while trading below the 1.4000 level and its medium term high at 1.4339. This view also enjoys the support of its potential head and shoulders pattern as well as its nearer term falling channel on the daily timeframe. Supports are situated at the 1.3805 level , representing its Jun 08'09 low which also falls within the vicinity of the 1.3793 level. These levels are envisaged to reverse roles and provide strong supports thereby turning the pair higher again just like the past week. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jun 21 09 19:10 GMT |
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While a marginal higher close was seen the past week, we continue to see risk of a retest of the pair’s medium term high residing at the 1.6662. A break through there will trigger the resumption of that trend towards the 1.6673 level, its Oct 30’08 high and then the 1.7000 level, its big psycho level. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
Jun 15 09 11:54 GMT |
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Retreating from this month's high at 1.6664 in what those who have missed Cable's rally (and there are an awful lot of them) are hoping is a 'double top'. A good rule of thumb when one has missed a big move is to buy a portion now, at any price, and hope for an improvement on the second instalment, not to hold out and hope - and maybe miss the boat again. Almost record volume in the futures contracts suggest this might already be the case (or maybe just roll overs). Bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since 1993 as foreigners look on incredulously at the political mess our MP's and their expenses have caused. Here is one group that missed out, though maybe not on the way down. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Jun 15 09 11:48 GMT |
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Technical analysis shows the euro may fall to 1.3855 where will find previous support. Technically MACD chart is showing a selling signal by crossing the signal line to MACD line and RSI breaks 70% level downwards. We have strong supply in the market as stochastic shows us the market movement and Bollinger gives us a bearish signal by closing the candle below the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jun 14 09 19:45 GMT |
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As a cap was seen at the 1.5801 level , its Jun 08'09 low following its recent corrective weakness off the 1.6662 level the past week, potential for further upside towards the 1.6662 level is now expected. With that said, decisively invalidating that level will resume its medium term uptrend and call for additional upmove towards the 1.6673 level, its Oct 30'08 high and then the 1.7000 level, its big psycho level. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jun 14 09 19:43 GMT |
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The pair's strong support at the 1.3793 level limited further downside and turned the pair back up to close the week higher at 1.4178 after weakening to a low of 1.3805 the past week. Its medium term bullishness remains in place although it is now trading off its recent high at 1.4339. The pair is now expected to build on its past week strength with eyes on the 1.4178 level where its Jun 11'09 high is located with a break and hold above there putting EUR in position for a retest of the 1.4339 level, its YTD high. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Jun 09 09 11:21 GMT |
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U.S. Dollar fails to form a higher top against Japanese Yen but we can see the indicators show us an upwards direction like RSI , which breaks 50% level and continues upwards, MACD crosses the signal line pointing up and Bollinger band gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the upper band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
Jun 08 09 14:26 GMT |
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The Euro reached a high at 1.4339 Thursday, its best level since January's high at 1.4363 and on the ECB's Effective Exchange rate it is not too far off the all-time high of 2008. The 1.4200 area is the 50% retracement of last year's losses and coincides with a large, flat-topped Ichimoku 'cloud' so we feel prices will thrash excitedly either side of here for another fortnight, maybe until month-end; this should lift implied volatility. Friday's sell-off has corrected the overbought situation while keeping momentum bullish. We feel the Euro should form another new interim base between 1.3800 and 1.3600, setting up for another strong rally in thin summer conditions. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jun 07 09 19:54 GMT |
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Although EUR retains its broader medium term uptrend triggered off the 1.2456 level in early Mar'09, its price action the past week has halted that uptrend temporarily having printede a rejection candle and closed lower on Friday. Bias remains to the downside for the continuation of that nearer term downtrend initiated at the 1.4339 level towards the 1.3793 level ,its May 28'09 high and then the 1.3738 level, representing its Mar 19'09 high. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Jun 01 09 01:16 GMT |
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As a combination of both the monthly and weekly price strength have driven the pair through key resistance levels including its big psycho level at 1.4000, risk of further upside gains has turned towards the 1.4363 level, its Dec 29'09 high. EUR which is also supported by its pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart, should eventually retarget its bigger overhead resistance level residing at the 1.4719 level, its Dec 18'09 high on taking out the 1.4353 level. Beyond the former will pave the way for a run at the 1.4867 level, its Sept 22'08 high. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
May 25 09 11:48 GMT |
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Technical analysis shows us the Euro may climb to 1.4700 and continue its uptrend. We can see the demand in the market by using some indicators like MACD which giving us a buying signal by crossing the MACD line to the signal line. RSI shows us the strength in the market. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 25 09 09:39 GMT |
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The IMM report shows modest movements in speculative positions, though the recent movement out of USD has continued. The dollar has weakened on a broad base in recent weeks and even though the accelerated dollar decline, which helped EUR/USD break above the strong 1.3739 resistance, happened after the IMM data was collected, the IMM report does show a further build-up in short USD positions. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
May 25 09 09:14 GMT |
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With its key resistance at its Mar 19'09 high at 1.3738 decisively violated and resumption of its short uptrend triggered, risks have now turned to its strong overhead resistance located at the 1.4363 level, its Dec 29'09 high. But before that occurs, its psycho level resting at the 1.4000 will have to initially give way to activate that. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 18 09 08:26 GMT |
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The IMM report shows a broad-based move out of USD coinciding with intensified USD weakness prior to the collection of IMM data last week. This rush out of the dollar does, inmour opinion, increase the potential for a short-term USD recovery. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |
May 17 09 19:16 GMT |
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There is a huge week of economics ahead that really could set the tone for global equity, interest rate, GDP, and therefore forex direction. "If equities bounce higher we can look to sell the Usd in long-term trades and signals that are issued with larger stops and much bigger targets than has been the norm" TeamLFB members said. "If equities react by moving lower we will be buying the Usd in tight target trades that get locked up quickly." |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
May 12 09 18:57 GMT |
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As the market picks on the underlying bullish themes that have been building over the past few months the natural inclination is to be wary. In the last release, the favoured currencies were Sterling and the commodity currencies against the US dollar coupled with the more benign environment that a drop in volatility would imply. Whilst from an equity perspective a consolidation/ corrective phase is becoming more compelling, the strength in commodities still underpins the pro-risk theme. The reasoning being that whilst it is still probable that this is a bounce in a bear market, the risk of being caught long dollars and long treasuries if the low is behind is greater than selling dollars now and reversing the strategy if proved wrong. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
May 11 09 15:11 GMT |
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Retreating again from March's high at 99.69 in what is a potential, irregular, oversized 'head-and-shoulders' top. Prices should now turn their focus to cautious downside probing, starting with this morning's test of the top of the daily Ichimoku 'cloud'. In what is expected to be generalised US dollar selling, this month the Yen may well outperform other major currencies dragging Yen crosses lower. Moving averages are already suggesting a short position in dollar/Yen and Pacific rim currencies are leading the way as they strengthen to some of the best levels of the last six months. A daily close below 97.00 will probably turn momentum bearish and note that the greenback is certainly not oversold here. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
May 11 09 10:17 GMT |
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Technical analysis show us the euro may continue its uptrend as MACD giving us a strong buying signal by crossing MACD line to the signal line and RSI is in a clear uptrend. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the upper band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
May 11 09 09:55 GMT |
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For yet another week, speculative investors reduced their net long USD position, which saw a major fall and has now gone to neutral. This is consistent with the pick-up in risk appetite, which has been an important factor driving the effective USD index more than 7% below its 9 March multi-year high. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
May 10 09 20:45 GMT |
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A third-week of upside gains has not only taken the pair out of its daily declining channel but has broken above its daily and weekly 200 emasto close the week higher at 1.3634. With this achieved ,risk has turned to the upside with its strong resistance residing at its Mar 19'09 high at 1.3738 coming in as the next upside target where a break and hold above there will activate its short term recovery initiated at the 1.2456 level, its Mar 04'09 high towards its Jan 05'09 high at 1.3964.Beyond the latter will leave the pair aiming at the 1.4363 level, its Dec 29'08 high. Its weekly momentum indicators are bullish and trending higher suggesting further strength. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
May 04 09 10:56 GMT |
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Technical analysis shows us the Euro may continue its uptrend. We can see the demand in the market by using some indicators like MACD which giving us a buying signal by crossing the MACD line to the signal line. RSI shows us the strength in the market. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Apr 27 09 11:04 GMT |
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U.S. Dollar still in a downtrend against Japanese Yen, as we can see strong supply in the market, based on technical indicators like RSI, which is in a clear downtrend, MACD crosses the signal line with a break of equilibrium level and Bollinger band gives us a bearish signal by closing the candle below the lower band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 27 09 07:53 GMT |
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Speculative investors turned increasingly bearish on the traditional safe-haven currencies in the week to 21 April and added significantly to both JPY and CHF shorts. JPY short positions, as a share of open interest, now stand at the lowest level since October 2007. This is somewhat in contrast with the latest price action, as the JPY has performed strongly in recent weeks, taking USD/JPY below 97 for the first time since late March. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Apr 27 09 04:30 GMT |
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EUR paused its declines activated at its Mar 19'09 high at 1.3738 the past week and embarked on a corrective rally to close higher at 1.3242. This is coming on the heels of a turn off the 1.2889 level, its April 20'09 low followed with a four-day of higher closes. This now suggests that further upside is envisaged and price should now shape up towards its channel top at 1.3378 which is within the vicinity of its April 13'09 high at 1.3392. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Apr 22 09 16:06 GMT |
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The key driver of FX continues to be asset market sentiment and the on going prospects for equity markets. Understandably, participants are anxious to know whether the ultimate low in equities has been hit, implying positive prospects for pro-cyclical currencies. The answer comes down to timing once again. The primary trend for now is assumed to be downwards, but this does not preclude periods of equity gains. These gains, even in servere bear markets, can be substantial and can give the impression the market has changed trend. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
Apr 20 09 15:31 GMT |
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Because we predict a series of broadly sideways moves for the bulk of this year, with many interim highs and lows along the way, predicting where these lie will be a difficult problem which we will have to face again and again. This is the case with April's high at 101.45, just as it was with March's one at 99.69. At the moment we see the pull-back from the recent high as corrective, retracing just 38% of the previous rally, and an A, B, C-type move which should base imminently. This should then set up for another cautious upside probe next month. However, if the market was to break and then trade consistently below the 97.00 area we will probably be tempted to say an interim high is already in place. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 20 09 08:43 GMT |
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Speculative investors have reduced their bets that GBP will depreciate. Net short GBP positions were trimmed by USD0.7bn following strong GBP performance in recent weeks. During April, GBP has gained close to 5% against EUR and close to 3% against USD. While reduced, net short GBP positions remain significant and there is thus still the potential for a move higher in GBP/USD to be catalysed by position unwinding. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Apr 20 09 05:36 GMT |
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EUR declined to a two-month low the past week cutting through the 1.3113 level, its Mar 30'09 low and the 1.3090/93 level, its Feb 09'09 high/April 09'09 low to close lower at 1.3045. With downside momentum still in place and weekly RSI negative and pointing to the downside supported by a declining channel(daily chart), we believe EUR's downside weakness triggered at its Mar 19'09 high at 1.3738 has more to go. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Apr 13 09 10:08 GMT |
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The U.K. currency gives us a rebound signal after forming a higher low. Technically the market change its trend as we can see strong demand in the market, based on technical indicators like RSI, which is in a bullish direction, MACD crosses the signal line and is pointing upwards and Bollinger gives us a buying signal by closing the candle above the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FX Instructor |
Apr 13 09 04:39 GMT |
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This week could be a very important week for the EURUSD. After had a significant bullish movement since March 11 from 1.2456 to 1.3736, the pair was corrected to the downside and now testing the 50% Fibo retracement (of 1.2456 - 1.3736) around 1.3103 area. The pair attempted to push lower on April 10, bottomed at 1.3092 but further bearish scenario was rejected as the pair bounced back to the upside and closed convincingly above 1.3103 key level. On 4h chart we can see that the pair might be forming a descending triangle pattern, which is a bearish pattern. Important resistance is seen at 1.3340 area. So for this week, the important range to watch will be 1.3103 - 1.3340 area. As long as the pair stay below 1.3340, I prefer a further bearish scenario, a movement below 1.3000 psychological level for this week. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Apr 12 09 16:50 GMT |
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With EUR reversing its previous week gains and breaking back below the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27'09 high/former range top into its broader consolidation range(between 1.3330 & 1.2330 levels)again, risk has increased for further declines towards its key support at the 1.3113 level, its Mar 30'09 low. We envisage a clearance of there driving the pair further lower towards the 1.3090/93 level, its Feb 09'09 high/April 09'09 low. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Apr 07 09 19:05 GMT |
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The coming weeks look set for a range-bound market. A few weeks ago, I suggested that FX volatility was too high and could even trade in single digits by May when looking at one month Euro dollar vol (below). This has favoured an oversold bounce in sterling and is likely to continue for now against selective currencies. Whilst the dollar may well weaken further in the medium term, the 'grand sell off' for the dollar remains a long term story (as proposed in the last release). This, in my view, is tied together with inflation and a collapse in bonds. The reason for this 'delay' is simple. Equities are unlikely to have hit the ultimate low. A correction in a bear market can look exactly the same as long term base which is why there are many proponents expressing bullish views. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Apr 06 09 15:44 GMT |
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Speculative investors have started to bet that the EUR strengthening will continue. After having been net short EUR against USD since July 2008, sentiment has changed among currency futures traders that now on average believe the EUR will outpace the USD going forward. The change is not large but it marks nevertheless the biggest swing on the week. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Apr 06 09 11:03 GMT |
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Technical analysis shows us the Euro may continue its uptrend. We can see the demand in the market by using some indicators like MACD which giving us a buying signal by crossing the MACD line to the signal line. RSI shows us the strength in the market. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the middle band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Apr 05 09 16:52 GMT |
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As corrective rally has bottomed out at the 1.3113 level and a rally through the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27'09 high/range top occurred the past week, continued recovery higher is now expected to target its Mar 19'09 high at 1.3738.Though another support exist s before this at the 1.3616 level, its daily 200 ema,the former is more significant as a decisive push through there will resume its short term uptrend initiated at the 1.2456 level, its Mar 04'09 high towards the 1.3964 level, representing Jan 05'09 high. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mar 30 09 19:01 GMT |
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Following the Fed's announcement to buy Treasuries on 18 March, causing EUR/USD to spike four big figures higher, speculative investors have scaled back long USD positions -though less than could perhaps have been expected. While market commentaries were very USD bearish following the Fed's actions, investors remained significantly long USD and also remained net short EUR. Hence, the large fall in EUR/USD in recent days cannot be explained by speculative IMM investors being stopped out on long EUR/USD positions. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Mar 30 09 18:27 GMT |
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Trading below 1.3335 was able to limit further gains for the pair to reach last week's suggested targets (last week's report) and we see a bearish technical pattern that took the pair below 38.2% correction (1.3260) for the last incline. The pair is currently trading near a support level at 1.3160 where we also see trading is above the 100 MA at 1.3145 which may result in an incline in a new attempt to remain above 1.3335 yet if failed and reversed to the downside, this will open the way to 1.2965 gradually. The RSI is supporting our outlook yet the MACD indicator is waiting to confirm the breach of 1.3110 to decline |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Mar 30 09 08:33 GMT |
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The U.K. currency swing back downwards for a short period. Technically the market shows us a strong support level at 1.4135 that may rebound as indicators gives us strength in the market like Momentum, which breaking zero level, MACD crosses the signal line and is pointing upwards, and Bollinger gives us a buying signal by closing the candle above the upper band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Mar 29 09 19:29 GMT |
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EUR's corrective pullbacks following its recent sharp rally witnessed a price collapse below its key support at the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27'09 high/range top the past week. This price development leaves its short term recovery off the 1.2456 level, its Mar 04'09 high on hold and has opened up downside threats towards the 1.3093 level, its Feb 09'09 high and subsequently the 1.2992/1.3000 area, its Feb 23'09 high/psycho level. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Lloyds TSB |
Mar 24 09 20:32 GMT |
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A question that will be in the forefront of traders' minds over the coming weeks will be; has the dollar bear trend started? Both inflation and a weak dollar are expected to be developing themes, but whether we are at the start of the trend looks open to debate. Whilst I do expect commodities to trend higher, yields to rise and the dollar to sell off, the most important issue here is timing. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by ecPulse.com |
Mar 23 09 16:11 GMT |
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As we pointed out during last week's analysis we see that the pair inclined more than expected especially after breaching the 1.3335 critical level. The pivot point for the week is at 1.3950 and is the last resistance level before our suggested target at 1.4180. The RSI is showing the pair trading within an overbought area suggesting the possibility of a downside correction whereas the MACD indicator is supporting the upside movement. We believe the general trend for the week is to the upside targeting 1.3845 at the very least as far as 1.3335 remains unbroken where if the pair was able to build a solid base above 1.3590, this will quicken the move |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Danske Bank |
Mar 23 09 15:33 GMT |
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The latest IMM data cover the week from 10 to 17 March. The data, which was collected ahead of the last Fed meeting, show a further increase in net long USD positions, primarily at the expense of positions in JPY. This implies that at the beginning of last week, speculative investors had the largest long USD positions since October. This could explain the sharp USD sell-off on the back of Fed's bold initiatives, the latter causing a major shift in sentiment towards the greenback. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by FXTechstrategy |
Mar 22 09 17:13 GMT |
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A sharp rally through the 1.3330 level, its Jan 27'09 high/range top saw EUR follow through on its morning star(bottom reversal signal) formation highlighted in our previous week analysis to close week higher at 1.3582.With a clearance of its range top between the 13330 and the 1.2330 levels and a loss of its Jan 19'09 high at 1.3386 seen, nearby resistance residing at the 1.3799 level, its Jan 08'09 high is now being targeted ahead of a bigger resistance zone at the 1.3857/88 levels,its.618 Ret(1.4719-1.2330 declines)/Sept 11'08 high. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Finotec Group |
Mar 16 09 11:54 GMT |
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Technical analysis shows us the Euro may continue its uptrend. We can see the demand in the market by using some indicators like MACD which giving us a buying signal by crossing the MACD line to the signal line. RSI shows us the strength in the market. Bollinger gives us a bullish signal by closing the candle above the upper band. |
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Weekly Forex Technicals |
Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank |
Mar 16 09 11:20 GMT |
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It might just be possible that we have formed an interim high at 99.69, but until we start holding consistently below the 97.00 area this has yet to be confirmed. Therefore the outlook for this week and possibly for the rest of this month is unclear. As we predict a series of broadly sideways moves for the bulk of this year, it will be the sort of problem we will have to face again and again, making work tedious. We also cannot rule out a very brief 'spike high' this month at 100.55 before a slide to 93.00. In this case one-month at-the-money implied volatility should creep back up to the 25.00% area. Note that open interest in the futures contract is running at about one quarter of the 2007 peak, evidence of unwinding the 'carry trade'. |
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